Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 180649 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 149 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions but colder temperatures will push into the region today as a high pressure ridge builds across the region. Large high pressure will build off the mid Atlantic and Carolina coast through Sunday, with moderating temperatures this weekend. Another low pressure should affect the region early next week with mostly rain, but there is a risk of some snow/mix/ice across the interior.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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115 AM Update... Most of the steady precipitation has push SE of Nantucket at 06Z, though still seeing some spotty light rain and/or snow from about KGHG-KEWB south and east. Also noting some lingering patchy fog across portions of the Cape as well. However, should see drier air work in as NW winds pick up to 5-10 kt, though a bit higher across the mid and outer Cape. High pres ridging is building slowly E out of E NY state from the 1033 hPa center extending from western WV and KY/S OH at 06Z. this will continue to filter in the drier but colder air across the region. Clouds have been steadily clearing from the West, with mostly clear skies noted on the GOES-16 Fog and Nighttime Microphysics imagery which clearly show the back edge of the clouds. Lower cloud deck linger across E Mass into E RI, but should push offshore through the remainder of the night. Temps have fallen back to the teens across the CT valley, ranging to the lower-mid 30s where the clouds are lingering. As the clouds push offshore, the colder air will filter in through daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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Today... Strong high pressure will build across the Mississippi Valley region pushing a coastal low off the Virgina coastline. Up here in the Northeast, flat ridge from the southern high pressure system will be in place. Continued westerly flow across the area as high temperatures will be near normal, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s. Dry weather for the day with plenty of sunshine. Guidance is hinting at some ocean effect clouds moving in during the afternoon, as well as over the Berks from any LES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Dry with a warming trend through this weekend * Another storm may bring mostly rain late Monday into Tuesday with a risk of some interior snow/mixed precip/ice Quiet pattern expected through this weekend with a moderating trend as amplified trough moves into the Plains with downstream ridging and rising heights across New England. Near normal temperatures Friday, becoming above normal during this weekend. A deeper mid level trough is expected to approach southern New England early next week. This will steer a low pressure into the Great Lakes, and a cold front across our region. There is a decent southerly low level jet, so moisture transport should also be slightly higher than normal. Temperatures are marginal for wintry precipitation, so it will all come down to timing. The more precipitation which occurs during the nighttime hours, the more likely portions of our region could see a period of snow, sleet or freezing rain. During the daytime hours, rain is much more likely. Will take several days for these sorts of details to become clearer. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Through 12Z...VFR across central and western areas into NE Mass. Lingering MVFR-IFR CIGS and local MVFR VSBYS in patchy fog from E RI into SE Mass will linger through around 09Z then should slowly improve. Today...VFR. May see some lingering MVFR CIGS across the mid and outer Cape and well as KACK through 14Z before improving. NW winds gusting up to 20 kts along the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands this afternoon. Tonight...Mainly VFR conditions. May see some local MVFR CIGS at times across the outer Cape and E slopes of the Berkshires on N-NW winds. Friday...VFR conditions for most areas, but may see MVFR CIGS linger across the E slopes of the Berkshires through midday. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Coastal low will push into the Gulf of Maine tonight switching the winds to a more northwest direction. A few gusts to near 20 kts but overall winds will be below small craft criteria. Seas will remain at or above 5 feet through much of the period for the outer open waters. where Small Crafts will continue into Thursday evening. Have extended the Small Craft into the outer reaches of RI and BI sounds with 5 foot seas through mid morning Thursday. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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1100 PM Update... A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Connecticut River at Middle Haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations. Cold conditions will persist through Thursday which will limit additional runoff. Continued ice jams will remain on some of the rivers. There will be some increase of snow pack across interior southern New England as well. For details on specific area rivers, including observed and forecast river stages, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) graphs on our website.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ235- 237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ250- 254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten NEAR TERM...Belk/EVT SHORT TERM...Dunten LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Dunten/EVT MARINE...Belk/Dunten/EVT HYDROLOGY...Staff

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