Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 290550 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 150 AM UPDATE... A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK. APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI * POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY... LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND. AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS. THIS WEEKEND... NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...BELK/NOCERA

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