


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --249 FXUS61 KBOX 261913 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 313 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds into the Gulf of Maine tonight into Friday, maintaining mostly cloudy conditions, cooler temperatures and modest onshore breezes. A warm front tries to lift northward Saturday with a risk for showers and thunderstorms, along with warmer and more humid weather for the southern half of Southern New England. Seasonably warm and dry for Sunday. Temperatures then warm up into the mid to upper 80s again early next week, along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --305 PM Update: Key Messages: * Cloudy with continued onshore flow allowing for cooler nighttime lows upper 50s/low 60s. * Hit or miss rain showers thru midnight but majority of Southern New England stays dry. Details: Today`s been quite a bit cooler and noticeably less humid, driven by NE onshore flow with sfc ridging extending into ME/northern NH. And by quite a bit cooler, 24 hour temperature anomalies are around 20-25 degrees cooler. Considerable cloudiness has also resulted, and that will continue into tonight as a weak disturbance aloft working through central NY moves ESE through Southern New England during the first part of the evening. Radar mosaic is showing some returns but most of these showers are having a tough time reaching the ground. Wouldn`t rule out a passing shower thru midnight but think the radar presentation`s bark is worse than the bite and the majority of the time is dry. High pressure then makes greater southward inroads during the overnight with any light rain showers pulling southward/offshore, with dry weather. Still overall cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with a continued E to NE wind.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --305 PM Update: Key Messages: * Partly to mostly cloudy Friday, peeks of sun late in the day. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. * Increasing clouds and possible showers Friday night, starting to turn a little more humid but still tolerable. Details: A 1024 mb sfc high pressure will be building SE from ME/NH with ridging extending westward from it to the Berkshires. It now looks as though Friday ends up being drier than not, with the better chance for rain showers being in the narrow/pinched warm sector west of the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Although we start off mostly cloudy, it`s possible eastern areas could see some breaks in the cloudiness toward some peeks of sun during the afternoon. Think there should be enough breaks in cloudiness to allow highs to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s with tolerable levels of humidity (dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s). Increased cloud cover toward overcast then returns Fri evening, along with a rise in dewpoints/humidity level in the overnight as a warm front tries to lift northeastward. That being said, with rain across interior northern New England falling into the ridge helping to reinforce it, I`m not optimistic we`ll truly break out into the warmer and significantly more humid airmass that lies well to our south and west. Still, increasing risk for showers arriving toward the second half of the overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Below normal temperatures remain on Saturday, but a return to the summer warmth Sunday though next week. * Best chance for showers comes Friday night into Saturday. As discussed prior, the mid-level ridge flattens and flow becomes nearly zonal. This allows for shortwaves to pass through the region and bring shower chances Friday night into Saturday, though there is still uncertainty with the heaviest rainfall, in generally it does look to stay across northern New England, but the ensembles do show probs of 0.5", the GEFS at 40-60%, ENS does not show this, but has even lower probabilites of 0.1" at 20-40%, while the CMC has 10-30% of 0.5" and +70% of 0.1". Something to watch, though the better forcing does look to be in northern New England. Don`t go canceling any outdoor events just yet. Briefly drier late Sunday into Monday, followed by a storms on Tuesday with a frontal passage. Temperature-wise, onshore flow provides cool temperatures Saturday, highs in the low to middle 70s Saturday. A warm up follows Sunday through midweek, summer temperatures return with highs in the low- 80s on Sunday. Then early next week highs return to the middle and upper 80s, along with dew points nearing 70F. It remains possible Monday and Tuesday could approach the low 90s, ensembles show +90F probabilites are between 30-50% across parts of southern New England. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Through Tonight: High confidence. Mainly BKN/OVC VFR bases; could be some passing, spotty rain showers moving southeast rest of the afternoon thru about 04z Fri. However these showers should be light enough to not restrict visby. NE to E winds around 10 kt thru this evening. Friday: High confidence. VFR continues, with dry weather. E to SE winds 5-10 kt. Friday Night: Moderate confidence. VFR early, although categories deteriorate from west to east after 03z to IFR levels as stratus develops along with areas of mist/fog. SE winds around 5 kt. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA, patchy BR. Saturday Night: IFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Patchy BR. Monday: VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. NE to E winds range from 15-25 kt, with waves 3-5 ft tonight through Friday night. Strongest winds and highest seas over the southern outer waters. Issued SCA through Friday on the southern outer waters, though conditions are somewhat borderline. Mainly dry weather, although could see some passing showers tonight but shouldn`t restict visbys. Outlook /Saturday through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ255-256.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/McMinn NEAR TERM...Loconto SHORT TERM...Loconto LONG TERM...McMinn AVIATION...Loconto/McMinn MARINE...Loconto/McMinn