Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281809 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 209 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT... WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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200 PM UPDATE... WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SYRACUSE TO BRADLEY TO NORWOOD. THE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED INTO BOSTON YET...AS THEY STILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS AT 60F. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH OF THE FRONT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 70F ALREADY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO WAA AND IN CONJUCTION WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT... EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 30-35 KT AT H925 AND UP TO 45 KT AT H85...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF SCT SHOWERS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CT VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL...MAY DROP TO THE 50S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS HOLDING AT AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING LINE OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL NH AND NE MA BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF E MA/E RI DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOTING LIFTED INDICES ZERO TO -1 AND K INDICES AROUND 30 AND...WITH GOOD MIXING CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... * HIGHLIGHTS... - COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY - SIGNIFICANT STORM APPEARING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND - APPEARING UNSEASONABLY COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK * OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS... VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NOT SO MUCH THIS WEEKEND. 28/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REST OF THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE INVOLVES A LINGERING CLOSED SURFACE LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONGER...NEGATIVELY-TILTED...MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...FAVORED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO MITIGATE THE TIMING AND LOCATION ERRORS. WE THINK IT WISE TO NOT DISMISS THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES CAN BE WORKED OUT. STAY TUNED. * DETAILS... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...CONDITIONS. AS TO FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...NO ONE PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SHOWING A CLASSIC ENERGY TRANSFER FROM AN INLAND LOW PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE PROBLEM IS THE DETAILS ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT...AND WILL BE CRUCIAL. OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SO FAR OUT TO SEA...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINDS UP IN THE DRIER AIR...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BEFORE 00Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S-SW WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS ESP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS. OTHERWISE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHWEST TERMINALS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LOW CONFIDENCE IF FOG WILL DEVELOP. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ARE. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. S-SW WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT ESP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW PROB WIND GUST TO 30 KT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH BY 20-21Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND FOR POTENTIAL. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE POSTED. WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS AND SEAS AOA SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO W ON THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING AROUND 5-7 FEET...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS A STORM BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INTENSIFY...WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING AS WELL. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/EVT

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