Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 250315 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1115 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region. Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest temperatures inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable weather is expected late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM Update... Mainly clear skies across the region at 02Z. Noting a few mid level clouds moving across near the E slopes of the Berkshires of NW Mass, along with some mid and high clouds scrapping across the islands from the northern fringe of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving E at around 40N southward. With high pressure across the region and winds dropping off to near calm, temps will continue to fall back especially in the normally cooler valley. Seeing temps down to the mid 50s across interior E Mass and even at Martha`s Vineyard with calm winds. Could see patchy radiation fog developing in those areas after 1 or 2 AM through around sunrise. Otherwise, expect clear conditions overnight for most of the area. Near term forecast pretty much on track. Have updated to bring conditions current and incorporated into the overnight trends. Previous discussion... With the ideal radiational cooling conditions followed the cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins. Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typically prone locations. Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW flow aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast and tracks eastward, south of 40N. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Saturday... High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue with a dry forecast. Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast. Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend. Sat night... High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights... * Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday * Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night * Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term portion of the forecast. Will use a blend of available guidance for this forecast. Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the eastern U.S. A cold front will move through southern New England on Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster) bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in the Connecticut Valley Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures return to seasonable levels for the end of the week. Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England. There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder with these showers. Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends to lead to more dry weather. Not looking at any significant precipitation through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence. Overnight...VFR. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR after 06Z-07Z for a few hours in the typically prone locations. Saturday and Saturday night...VFR with light and variable winds inland, then sea breezes along the coast by midday or earlier Saturday. Low risk again for patchy MVFR conditions in fog late Sat night in normally prone locations. KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light SE winds will become light/variable overnight. Winds then shift back to SE Sat morning. KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday and Monday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and variable winds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence. Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track southeast of 40N/70W Saturday. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday and Monday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT

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