Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 280143 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 943 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 945 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND MASS FIELDS SHOW A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SETUP RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH INVERSION DEVELOPING BENEATH H92 TEMPS ALREADY BETWEEN 0C AND +2C. AFTERNOON DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL BE EXPANDING FREEZE WARNINGS TO HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND NORTHERN PROVIDENCE COUNTY RI...FROST ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN OTHER ACTIVATED ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW... DRY WX PREVAILS WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OUT OF THE NW THANKS TO A FURTHER WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER/EARLIER ACTIVATION OF THE SEA BREEZES ON BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS SO HIGHS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN +4C AND +5C...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +2C...SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 60F OR LOW 60S BUT WITH A COLDER START TO THE DAY...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. MID 50S WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID ATLANTIC LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND FORCES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER N. AT THIS TIME...AFTER LOOKING AT BUFKIT...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE SFC TO H7 LAYER TO OVERCOME TO WARRANT POPS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH NIL. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT COOLING...YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK 27/12Z REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH MAY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER THIS WEEKEND. THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE INJECTION OF SOME ENERGY INTO THE MEAN EASTERN USA TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION ARE MUCH QUICKER TO MOVE THIS ENERGY INTO THE TROUGH. THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL TO DETERMINING THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE ENOUGH INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH COAST... STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FOR THE FIRST OF MAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS REMAINS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME. THE DETAILS ARE STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. STILL THINKING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY. WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH COASTS...STARTING AT THE MORE TRADITIONAL TIME. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WITH SEAS INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO ABOUT 5 FEET. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MONDAY...INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017-018-020-021- 023. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-019- 022. RI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ002>007. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DOODY MARINE...BELK/DOODY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.