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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151102
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERY WEATHER LATE TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT
USHERING COOLER BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRI
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
7 AM UPDATE...

CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 30S!
HOWEVER SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND NICELY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ACROSS
NY/PA/NYC AND LONG ISLAND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS
NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE
WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI
AND EASTERN MA WHERE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES LATER TODAY. COULD SEE
SOUTH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH FOR A TIME LATE TODAY ACROSS
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING OUTCOMES OF POTENTIAL SHOWERY
WEATHER AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. WHILE FORCING IS APPARENT AHEAD OF LOCALLY
ENHANCED W/SW FLOW OF A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS MORE CONTINENTAL-MARITIME RATHER THAN
TROPICAL-ORIGIN /PWATS AROUND 1 INCH/...AND COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL
LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LENDS TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH LIKELY POPS TOWARDS SHORE AND OVER THE WATERS. OF
CERTAINTY...WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 MPH. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE LINGER NORTH AND EAST...CLEARING OUT BY
MIDNIGHT. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION THE BROADER MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS /AND LITTLE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...NOT THINKING ANY SHOWERS/. SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DIMINISH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...BUT
REMAINING BRISK ALONG THE WATERS. LOWS REMAINING MILD AROUND THE
UPPER 40S.

THURSDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS
THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER MIX-DOWN OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LATER +8-
10C AT H85 WILL RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID-UPPER 70S
WITH A FEW LOCALES REPORTING LOW 80S. WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE AROUND 25 TO
30 PERCENT PRESENTING THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS /SEE
THE FIRE-WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW/.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT REMAIN BRISK ALONG THE
COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WITH LITTLE
FAN-FARE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THIS PERIOD

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW/MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A MID LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING
TREND /AFTER THURSDAYS WARMTH/ BEGINNING FRI WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER
EAST...A 1030 MB MARITIME HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL YIELD DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER
AS MARITIME AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER FOR THE
SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEFS INSIST
ON JET ENERGY UNDERCUTTING INTO THIS RIDGE WHICH YIELDS LOW PRES
TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET/EC/ECENS WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS AND FOLLOW THE
WARMER/DRIER MODEL CONSENSUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

FRIDAY...PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS. COOLER THAN THU WITH DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. COOLEST TEMPS ALONG WITH COAST WITH AFTN SEABREEZES.
SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY THEN LIKELY GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN DIURNAL
SC/CU.

SAT/SUN...MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. FAIRLY LARGE TEMP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 1030 MB MARITIME HIGH JUST OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE L70S WELL INLAND TO THE U50S TO L60S ACROSS CAPE
COD. DRY WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED. FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS GIVEN PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY A WARMING TREND WITH MARITIME HIGH MOVING
OUT TO SEA AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUE ECENS ADVECTS A TONGUE OF +12C AIR AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS FULL SUN TEMP POTENTIAL OF NEAR 80
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH -SHRA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE -TSRA. WILL KEEP
CIGS AT OR ABOVE LOW-END VFR. UNCERTAIN WITH MVFR-IFR IMPACTS...
BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHCOAST INCLUDING THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. COULD SEE LLWS
IMPACTS DURING THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
TERMINALS /SW SUSTAINED 50 KTS AT 2 KFT/.

DRIER WEATHER PREVAILS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO CONTENT WITH MORNING COASTAL FOG ALONG
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...
GUSTY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 KTS...
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER FORECAST...VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SEABREEZES EACH DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF MA
AND RI. AS A RESULT EXPANDED SCA FOR ALL WATERS. S WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM. STRONGEST WINDS NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S/SW TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 KTS...ANTICIPATE SEAS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY. ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE INNER HARBORS AND BAYS. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY.

WINDS TO REMAIN BRISK TONIGHT...BACKING OUT OF THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE A REPEAT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS. MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT GALE HEADLINES /ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE/. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TO
DIMINISH AS THEY BACK OUT OF THE NORTH.

THROUGHOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FINE BOATING WEATHER FOR MID-LATE MAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH SWELL FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. GOOD VSBY AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO DRY WEATHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED
AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND
POSSIBLY 35 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-233-234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
FIRE WEATHER...BENNY