Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 272026 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 4 PM UPDATE... EARLY THIS EVENING... COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS... THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING... CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY... ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY COMFORTABLE. ENJOY! FRI NIGHT... ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND * ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK OVERVIEW... OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL YEARS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD /WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL AND W MA. MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY INCREASE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH THIS. WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG. FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT MARINE...NOCERA/EVT

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