Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 062037 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 337 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TWO WEAK FRONTS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES... FIRST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN MONDAY. NEXT WEEK MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT TURNING COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH TEMPERATURES DROP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. THE MODELS OFFER SOME VARIATION ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...SOME KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OTHERS BRINGING IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES OVER OR NORTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD PRODUCE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN ANY ONE LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPERATURES...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK BUT COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK * PRECIPITATION...RELATIVELY DRY WITH ANY PRECIP EVENTS VERY MINOR OVERVIEW... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROF WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TOWARD MIDWEEK...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES ALLOWING PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR TO MOVE INTO NEW ENG WITH TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS. HOWEVER...MORE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REAMPLIFY THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. TEMPS MODERATING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... MODERATING TEMPS BUT EXTENT OF WARMING ON TUE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OFFSHORE LOW PRES TUE AND NORTHERN SHIELD OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD COME CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST ON WED AS GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD FROPA WITH COOLER TEMPS THAN ECMWF/GGEM WOULD SUGGEST. THURSDAY... COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND FROPA WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. VFR. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN020-030 CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF -SHSN ON CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SAT WITH CIGS AOA 080. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY IN WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE FOR CALM WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BUILD JUST BARELY TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT IS MARGINAL. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SUN AND MON...MAINLY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOW PROB FOR A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. TUE...SW WINDS BELOW SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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