Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KBOX 132119 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 419 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THEN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF REGION ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... * DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING * COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 2004 APPEAR LIKELY IN BOSTON AND WORCESTER BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING * SEVERAL RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE RECORDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARCTIC BLAST! EVALUATING SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGIES ACROSS THE REGION FOR 12Z FEBRUARY 14TH...THE EXPECTED AIRMASS DROPPING S OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT IS NEAR OR BELOW RECORD MINIMUMS AT H925-85 GOING AS FAR BACK AS 1948 WITH FORECAST VALUES OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. UNDOUBTEDLY WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE PAST DECADE WITH SEVERAL RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND LIKELY TO BE BROKEN BIG PICTURE... LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY. MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE DAILIES... MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MIDWEST SHORTWAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY WITH WEAK LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/ISLANDS. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 45 TO 55 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL GENERATE STRONGER PCPN...BUT ALSO CHANGE THE THERMAL PROFILE WHICH WILL CHANGE PTYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WE EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDEST EARLY AT NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING QUESTIONS INCLUDE HOW FAST THE SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING...IS OUR DATABASE FORECASTING TOO RAPID A WARMUP? WILL THERE BE MORE FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRANSITION THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS? THESE CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TUESDAY WILL FIND THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO PLACE WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST TRACKS ON THE SURFACE LOW TAKE IT THROUGH EITHER THE HUDSON VALLEY OR WESTERN CT/MASS. THIS IS A PATH THAT WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AT LEAST 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH QPF OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WHICH WILL AID IN SNOWMELT. THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED. THE PASSING SURFACE LOW WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND PCPN DIMINISHING AT THAT TIME. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SWEEP OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE FROM TUESDAY WITH -7C TO -10C ALOFT SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND BRINGS COLDER AIR. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE STORM CENTER PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COME SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO! COUPLED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTMAX WHICH WILL LEND TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE /THE HEIGHT OF WHICH IS DURING THE EARLY EVENING/...LOOKING AT NW WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND 8 PM TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. STILL BRISK THOUGH...WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HEAD- LINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH WIND CHILL WARNINGS OVER MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND...ADVISORIES OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE TWO OTHER CONCERNS: SNOW ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY / ARCTIC SMOKE OVER THE WATERS. QUITE AN UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST PROFILE WITH ARCTIC AIR SURGING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW-40S. INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 1-2 KFT BENEATH A DRY INVERSION PER LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON THE ORDER OF 35C. DO NOT DISAGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER OF OCEAN-INDUCED CAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND NORMALIZED CAPE UP TO 0.4. BUT AS NOTED... TWO THINGS THAT DIMINISH THE THREAT IS THE 300-310 WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE ALOFT. SO NOT TOTALLY SOLD A 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. MORE INCLINED TO THINK A 1-2 INCH EVENT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. MAYBE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM CHATHAM TO PROVINCETOWN. A VERY LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MEASURE AND LIKELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING. ASIDE FROM SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN DRIFTS COLLECTS ON THE EASTERN-SIDE OF ROADWAYS. AS TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY/ARCTIC SMOKE...BLUSTERY NW-WINDS RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS. COMBINED WITH ARCTIC AIR AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OVER THE OCEAN-WATERS...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL AS ARCTIC SMOKE. WAVES BUILDING 8 TO 10 FEET. MORE DETAILS IN THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY... WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW-ZERO PERSIST TOWARDS MID-MORNING. BUT THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT BENEATH A CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS ALOFT. A DRY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT MIXING THROUGH THE DAY PER SINKING AIR. HIGHS AROUND THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. ANY OCEAN- EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO CLOUDS INCREASING MONDAY MORNING. A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. WILL SEE LOWS DROP BELOW-ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF S NEW ENGLAND. COLDEST SPOTS WHEREVER DEEP SNOW PACK RESIDES...NAMELY N/W MASS WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 BELOW-ZERO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY. MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION. THE DAILIES... MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MIDWEST SHORTWAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY WITH WEAK LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SNOW AT THE ONSET EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/ISLANDS. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 45 TO 55 KTS MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL GENERATE STRONGER PCPN...BUT ALSO CHANGE THE THERMAL PROFILE WHICH WILL CHANGE PTYPE FROM SNOW TO RAIN. WE EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE COLDEST EARLY AT NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. LINGERING QUESTIONS INCLUDE HOW FAST THE SURFACE LAYER WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING...IS OUR DATABASE FORECASTING TOO RAPID A WARMUP? WILL THERE BE MORE FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRANSITION THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS? THESE CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TUESDAY WILL FIND THE UPPER JET MOVING INTO PLACE WITH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST TRACKS ON THE SURFACE LOW TAKE IT THROUGH EITHER THE HUDSON VALLEY OR WESTERN CT/MASS. THIS IS A PATH THAT WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS BY MIDDAY WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AT LEAST 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH QPF OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WHICH WILL AID IN SNOWMELT. THE RAIN AND SNOWMELT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED. THE PASSING SURFACE LOW WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND PCPN DIMINISHING AT THAT TIME. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... A SECOND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SWEEP OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LINGERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE FROM TUESDAY WITH -7C TO -10C ALOFT SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND BRINGS COLDER AIR. TEMPS ALOFT THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. FRIDAY-SATURDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE STORM CENTER PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 21Z UPDATE... TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL VFR. BKN-OVC MVFR ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER-CAPE WITH -SHSN. LIGHT ACCUM OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE. NW-GUSTS 30-40 KTS AROUND 0Z...DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE NEED FOR AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS STRONGEST ALONG THE SHORES INITIALLY... GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SCT-BKN MVFR DISSIPATING WITH WINDS ALONG WITH -SHSN FOR OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT WINDS. KBOS TERMINAL... STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 0-1Z WITH NW-GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF 40 KT GUSTS AND THE NECESSITY OF AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS. WINDS TAPERING THROUGH LATE EVENING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORN. KBDL TERMINAL... NW-GUSTS 30 TO 35 KTS PERSISTING TO AROUND 23-0Z...WILL TAPER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY-TUESDAY... VFR DURING THE DAY BUT TRENDING TO IFR DURING MONDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN ON TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF THE DECK...SOUTHWEST 45-50 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH 60-70 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. LINGERING CONCERN OF A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. */ HIGHLIGHTS... * GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING S. INCREASING TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-40S AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW-ZERO ALONG THE SHORES. MIX DOWN OF 40 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING 8-10 FEET. LIKELY THREATS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL AS ARCTIC SEA SMOKE. HAVE INCLUDED BOTH BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY IN THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE. OTHER CONCERN IS PERIODS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE E-WATERS AND OUTER. EXPECT POOR VISIBILITY WITH ANY SNOW. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW-WINDS TAPERING ALONG WITH SEAS. GALES CONCLUDING...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGALND. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH 25 TO 32 KNOTS...SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD 5-6 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING AND 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...WITH A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WARNING. WINDS WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND DIMINISH DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITH 5 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED. THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH 5 TO 7 FOOT HEIGHTS LINGERING ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .CLIMATE... BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH... BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916 HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979 PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979 WORCESTER.... 8/1899 - 7/1979 BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979 RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH... BOSTON...... -3/1967 - -3/1934 - -14/1943 HARTFORD.... -7/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 - -7/1979 - -14/1943 WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943 BLUE HILL...-10/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ022>024. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ002>021-026. RI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ008. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251-255- 256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL CLIMATE...

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