


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --747 FXUS61 KBOX 030642 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 242 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Hot temperatures today will likely trigger a round of scattered showers & t-storms between 2 and 10 PM, some of which may be severe. Quiet for Independence Day heading into the weekend, then heat and humidity kick up for Sunday and the start of next week. Unsettled weather may make a return Tuesday into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages... * Hot today with a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through from west to east, generally 2 PM to 10 PM. Greatest risk in interior MA/CT. * Drying out and becoming cooler overnight. Another warm and humid (relative to Friday) day ahead before some drier and more seasonable air arrives behind a sweeping cold front. This extends from a low moving through southern Quebec slightly ahead of a neutrally tilted mid level shortwave. These features will provide the large scale forcing necessary to take advantage of existing moisture (dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs of 1.25") and instability (MUCAPE values toward 1500 J/kg, mid level lapse rates toward 6.5 c/km). The resulting round of thunderstorms will move through from west to east ahead of the cold front, generally between 2 and 10 PM. While bulk shear values are better than we saw on Tuesday (30-40 kts), a limiting factor will be the amount of moisture and instability available, as well as marginal surface convergence given winds veering to the W/NW ahead of the mid level front. Even so, parameters are favorable for at least a few isolated severe storms, the main threats being damaging winds and large hail. Storms exit and die down following sunset and loss of diurnal heating. The post frontal airmass then settles in with dewpoints dropping into the 50s for most (outside of the south coast). This allows low temps to be several degrees cooler than the night previous as well, in the upper 50s/low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages... * Dry, sunny, and less humid for Independence Day. Just in time, a beautiful and more comfortable airmass arrives for much of the holiday weekend. Friday looks to be sunny and dry under surface high pressure while the lingering mid level trough and NW flow will help keep temps more seasonable, in the low to mid 80, even upper 70s in the high terrain.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Key Messages... * Dry and sunny through the weekend. * Heat and humidity increase Sunday into early next week. * Unsettled weather returns around late Mon/Tue but low confidence in timing/location details. The mid level trough finally exits east on Saturday with ridging building in followed by a weak shortwave early next week. This will pump up the heat and humidity, really starting on Sunday when the 90s return and continuing until at least Monday. Beyond that there is some uncertainty owing to the timing of a frontal system which may bring down temperatures while also introducing a chance for showers and thunderstorms as early at late Monday. For now, best chance of unsettled weather looks centered on Tuesday, which would bring down temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today and tonight...High confidence except moderate confidence on thunderstorm potential areal coverage as well as timing. VFR outside of any scattered t-storm threats after 18z into the first half of the evening. Areal coverage and timing remains uncertain with this activity...but a few strong t-storms are possible which may contain locally strong wind gusts and hail too. The greatest risk is across interior MA and CT terminals. W winds generally 5-10 knots becoming more NW later tonight. Independence Day...High confidence. VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts at most terminals. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Main concern is the risk for a t-storm in the vicinity of the terminal after 19z/20z into the early evening hours. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Main concern is the risk for a t-storm in the vicinity of the terminal after 18z/19z into the early evening hours. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Independence Day...High confidence. Winds/seas stay below small craft advisory thresholds through Friday. The main concern for mariners will be areas of fog redeveloping mainly across our southern waters early this morning which may become locally dense. Winds will generally be in SW direction on the order of 7-15 knots before switching too a more NW direction tonight behind the cold front. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...BW MARINE...BW