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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 070855
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT WARM-UP
IN TEMPERATURES. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT STORM
IS "POSSIBLE" WED INTO THU...BUT ITS FAR FROM CERTAIN GIVEN IT IS
NEARLY A WEEK IN THE FUTURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
400 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN TO BE THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHERE THE WINDS GO LIGHT TEMPS RADIATE OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY...YET IF THE WIND INCREASES GREATER THEN 5 KTS...TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS. THIS IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CAPE WHERE MANY
SITES WHERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT CQX
WHICH WAS IN THE TEENS THANKS TO A NICE 10 KTS BREEZE. THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE CAPE PER THE 08Z OBS...AND WITH A 6-10
KT WIND ALL TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS NOW.

HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS WELL AS STORM OVER THE CAROLINAS IS BRING
A GOOD CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
SHIELD IS STILL PRETTY THIN ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR. HAVE NOTICED SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING UP ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND BLOCK ISLAND...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THEM AS THEY MOVE
INTO CONNECTICUT.

TODAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A OCEAN STORM
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS STORM HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
WARM AIR ALLOWING FOR 850MB TEMPS TO WARM FROM -4C TO 0C. THESE
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM-UP TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW 40 DEGREE
TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. BELIEVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
EASTERN MASS COASTLINE...INCLUDING BOS...WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE THE MID 30S AS THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE COOL
MARITIME AIR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT...
OCEAN STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT YET STEER EASTWARD
MISSING MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT ITS
PRECIP SHIELD WILL CLIP A PORTION OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PREV
RUN OF THE GFS WAS THE CLOSEST TO THE REGION BRINGING THE MOST
PRECIP...THE 00Z RUN BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING JUST A TRACE
OVER NANTUCKET. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
EC WHICH IS IN BETWEEN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP TO CLIP THE
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPE.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CANAL COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN. THIS OCEAN STORM
WILL BRING IN A GOOD WARM NOSE BETWEEN 850MB TO 925MB ALLOWING FOR
ANY HYDROMETEORS TO MELT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...IF THEY ARE BELOW FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP MOVES OVER
THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTRY MIX IS INCREASED. BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY TYPE OF
ADV.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING AS LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL
SEE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S AS CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY...
AS THE OCEAN STORM MOVES EASTWARD THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FRONT WONT MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO WARM-UP CLOSER TO AVERAGE. HOWEVER ONCE
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS STRONG
CAA TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE 800-700MB WHICH MAY INHIBIT ANY SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD
OR ALONG THE FRONT. TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS
THE GFS/EC AS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK IN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

OVERALL EXPECT A DRY WEATHER DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH PERHAPS NEAR 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
PLAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD ON SATURDAY
* SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* SIGNIFICANT STORM "POSSIBLE" NEXT WED/THU BUT NOT A CERTAINTY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IT
WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.  SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY
HANG ON FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
MAY ALSO RESULT IN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.  LOWS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD
AS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40.  LITTLE
MOISTURE OR FORCING AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AND
AGAIN MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE.  THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF
FAST MOVING BUT MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.  AGAIN
THOUGH...LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT ODDS
OF THEM TAPPING MUCH ATLANTIC MOISTURE APPEARS LOW.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DO NOT LOOK THAT COLD COMPARED TO
OUR RECENT WEATHER.  HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY.  IT COULD EVEN BREAK
50 IN SOME LOCALES IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES...SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME.  ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOMETIME WED/THU...BUT ITS FAR
FROM BEING A CERTAINTY.  KEEP IN MIND THIS "POSSIBLE" EVENT IS STILL
6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.  OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FRAME.  A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.

AT THIS TIME FRAME...WE HAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
THERE ARE 3 MAIN POSSIBILITIES THAT CAN OCCUR.  THE FIRST IS A
SCENARIO WHERE THE TIMING ENDS UP BEING OFF ALLOWING MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN ENERGY TO PASS OUT TO SEA...RESULTING IN A MISS OR GLANCING
BLOW.  THE 2ND IS WHERE THE SYSTEM PHASES TO AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE...ALLOWING FOR A NOREASTER TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
TO MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE THIRD IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PHASED
SOLUTION...WHERE WE END UP DEALING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO ICE AND/OR
RAIN.

ALL IN ALL...THE MAIN IDEA IS UNTIL WE GET AT LEAST INSIDE 4
DAYS...MODELS MAY BOUNCE AROUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN.  ALL
WE CAN SAY IS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT ITS FAR
FROM A LOCK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO
THE CT VALLEY. HAVE PUT A SCT MVFR DECK IN FOR NOW...WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE THE TREND BEFORE HAVING BETTER CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS
SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS FAR NORTHWEST AS A PVD-PYM LINE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WILL
FILTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR
CIGS POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OCEAN STORM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE SEAS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SWELL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SEAS ARE FORECASTED TO BUILD TO
5 TO 8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN
WATERS BY SATURDAY AS OCEAN STORM EXITS THE AREA. HAVE EXTENDED
SCA APPROPRIATELY INTO SATURDAY DO TO LINGERING SWELL. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER SOUTHEAST
SWELL FROM THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS FOR
MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  SCA ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS A TIMES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN