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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HOWEVER THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN THEN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND THUS THE MUGGINESS FACTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND VT BUT
QUICKLY DIE OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE THERE WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAP
AND LACK OF ANY LIFT.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING THE MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MUGGY NIGHT...AS TEMPS DROP ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANTICIPATE PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP
LIMITING VSBYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...

* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING
ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM AT OR ABOVE
90...ESPECIALLY SINCE SEVERAL SITES REACHED 90F TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT...BELIEVE THE CAP WILL
BREAK. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACTING TIMING BUT FEEL IT
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONCE THE FRONT
APPROACHES STORMS WILL DEVELOP...WITH THE COVERAGE BEING MORE
SCATTERED TO START WITH PERHAPS TURNING INTO A BROKEN LINE. THE
REGION WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500-
2500 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES VERY MEAGER...15 KTS FROM 0-6KM. THE
ONLY DOWNFALL FOR ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO 06Z THE BETTER MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE REGION AND WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND BETTER JET
DYNAMICS ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HELD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ONLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION AWAY. THEREFORE FEEL THAT
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOCALIZED WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NW ZONES...THERE IS MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES CLOSER TO 30 KTS
AND WITH SOME TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS COLD SEE UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCE WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER BELIEVE THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MUCH COOLER THU ALONG WITH RAIN LINGERING SOUTH COAST
* DRY...LESS HUMID AND SEASONABLE THU NGT THRU SAT
* PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID SUN INTO NEXT WEEK

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES....

NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EXITING THE SOUTH COAST. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRI. THE MID LEVEL MEAN TROUGH AXIS
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SAT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER
THE AREA THRU SAT. BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE /+2 SD/ LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VLLY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL BASE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST OF NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z THU.
THUS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM TO LINGER ACROSS
THIS REGION. THE HIGH RES DETERMINISTIC GUID /GFS AND NAM/ ARE
SLOWER WITH THE FROPA AS THESE MODELS FORM A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE
THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THIS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIER RES MODELS WOULD
PERFORM BETTER THAN THE COURSE ENSEMBLES SIMULATING A SMALL SCALE
FRONTAL WAVE. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS THU MORNING ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AND TRENDING TO CHANCE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER THU. DEPARTURE OF
RAIN WILL BE CRITICAL TO TEMP FORECAST AS THE WETTER GFS 2 METER
TEMPS NEVER CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S! EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF AND NAM 2
METER TEMPS ARE ONLY INTO THE L70S. THUS A COOLER DAY ON TAP THU AND
IF THE GFS VERIFIES OUR TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH N-NE WINDS YIELDING A COOLER DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH A
850 TEMP ANOMALIES AROUND 1 STANDARD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO...
ABOUT +10C/+11C. HENCE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S.
THE CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL YIELD A VERY COMFORTABLE AND COOL TEMPS
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS PROVIDES DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES OVER
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND SO EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

GENERALLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK/SHALLOW SEA BREEZE ON
EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT INTO WED...VFR TO START. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR FOG/CIGS
ACROSS INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS AND
FOG AGAIN OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR.
CONDITIONS CLEARING TO VFR BY DAY BREAK.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
VICINITY OF SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR LEVELS. ALSO...A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCE IN PATCHY FOG AHEAD
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEABREEZE
TIMING. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED LATE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROB ON FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. T-STORMS POSSIBLE BY WED AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MVFR POSSIBLE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE IN RAIN...POSSIBLY IFR SOUTH
COAST WITH VFR NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THEN VFR ALL
TERMINALS THU NIGHT INTO SAT. LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON WED WITH A RISK OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. AREAS OF
FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING BUT MAY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU...MODEST N-NE WIND ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH
COASTAL WATERS.

FRI/SAT...PLEASANT BOATING WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING A MODEST SSW SAT AFTN.

SUN...MODEST SSW WIND ALONG WITH LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
SHORE. OTHERWISE MAINLY GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX RADAR MAY BE IN STANDBY MODE TOMORROW MORNING WHILE
CONSTRUCTION TAKES PLACE NEARBY. THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN ANTICIPATING OF UPCOMING CONVECTION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF