Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281953 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 353 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. A BIT WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THU.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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350 PM UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT REGION...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COOLER AIR WORKS BACKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR OF LONG DURATION. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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MONDAY... BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER THEN TODAY. BEACH FORECAST... A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN * SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS MAINTAINS A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN POSITION CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. IN BETWEEN MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THRU WED. THUS WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS TYPICAL SHORT COMINGS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. THUS LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES HERE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER... TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH VLY. APPEARS WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY AND WESTWARD INTO NY STATE. THUS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. S-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE U70S AND L80S...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE REGION YIELDING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THAN TUE. GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG T-STORMS. WARM AND HUMID WITH RELIEF ARRIVING WED NIGHT OR THU AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THU/FRI/SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD HERE SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SUGGEST DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WED. THEN A RISK FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FRI AND/OR SAT AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FRI/SAT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL JUST REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY FOR RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOW RISK OF MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR LIKELY. THU...TRENDING TOWARD VFR AND DRIER AS WELL.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...HEADLINES WERE COMPLETELY DROPPED IN CAPE COD BAY AND SOME EASTERN BAYS/SOUNDS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFT OVER SWELL THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER- WATERS. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO MONDAY MORNING. FINALLY...MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTWHEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TUE NIGHT AND WED...S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BECOME LIKELY AS WELL. THURSDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH FRONT LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015- 016-019>024. RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250- 251-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA

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