Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 151809 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 109 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry and seasonable conditions today and Monday. Potential icing event for late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead an approaching area of low pressure from the Plains. Moving E and offshore Thursday into Friday with some disturbed weather lingering, will see high pressure build into the region for the weekend with seasonable conditions prevailing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1 pm update... No changes from previous forecast...temps on track with highs in the mid to upper 30s...lower 30s high terrain along with abundant sunshine and light NW winds (although higher winds Cape Cod and Islands). Fairly tranquil by mid Jan standards. Earlier discussion below. ========================================================================= Northern stream short wave moving across Maine this morning will advect a reinforcing surge of cold air into the region today. This will result in a seasonably cold day across the area with highs in the 30s...pretty typical for mid Jan. NNW winds this morning slacken this afternoon as 1030 mb high over Ontario to the OH valley builds toward New England. Ocean effect clouds over Gulf of ME may clip outer Cape Cod as winds become more northerly this afternoon and late in the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure over New England tonight, before moving south to a location just off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday. Mainly clear conditions through this period. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight, so favored the coldest guidance for temperatures. Temperatures Monday should be slightly above normal with plenty of sunshine and a light southwest wind. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ Highlights... - Possible significant icing event late Tuesday into Wednesday - Disturbed area of weather lingers into Friday - High pressure and more seasonable weather possible for the weekend */ Discussion... Without going into too much detail, fairly apparent we`ll see an airmass transition throughout next week as forecast guidance has continued to signal the past several days. But it is during this transition that we may see considerable impacts with the onset of inclement weather, specifically Tuesday into Wednesday. An over-running setup up ahead of low pressure emerging out of the the C CONUS, sweeping N/E across the Great Lakes region, against a nearly 1030 high over SE Canada into N/E New England. Anticipating a likely wintry mix mainly of sleet and freezing rain transition over the region to rain with shallow surface cold air damming beneath an over-riding warm-nose around H8. A significant icing event is forecast for interior portions of S New England, especially N/W MA into CT. Some aspects to monitor Tuesday into Wednesday: 1) Magnitude of cold air damming / wet-bulb temperatures / surface winds. GFS / NAM both suggesting modest ageostrophic / isallobaric flow up to H925. A more NE onshore signal along the coast with a more N component across the interior. This as the inside-runner low over the Great Lakes transitions towards the coast into regions of better baroclinicity beneath a potent mid-level shortwave. MET guidance has the best handle on the surface winds. Forecast modified to prevail a more N funnel of flow in the CT River Valley, NE along the coast. Trended closer to forecast wet-bulb temperatures with time given onset of precipitation to which there is good agreement towards late Tuesday (more on that below). Thinking it will take some time to dislodge colder air through late Wednesday when energy aloft sweeps across the region invoking cyclogenesis / low pressure development offshore. Agreeing with WPC, could be talking 0.1-0.2 ice accretion for the high terrain in N/W MA, possibly into CT. Want to highlight one last point and that is ground temperatures. It`ll be quite cold in the days preceding the event. Concern that during transition periods when air temperatures rise above freezing that the ground still may remain cold allowing for continued ice accretion, especially in areas of N/W MA where there remains snow cover. Would consider a buffer of time in possible hazards for a short period after temperatures have risen a degree or two above freezing. 2) Dry air. Stout 1030 high and dry air will likely delay the onset of precipitation towards late Tuesday to which forecast guidance consensus including ensembles are in good agreement on. Slowed the approach of PoPs. As to the presence of ice aloft, good agreement of a saturated dendritic zone with onset so snow is not out of the question at first. But some indications of column drying above -10C as we go Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thus preference to a more sleet / freezing rain event. 3) Lift / moisture availability. Rather weak forcing during onset, thus thinking it will take some time for low levels to saturate and surface temperatures to fall towards their respective dewpoint, thus the trending to the wet-bulb temperature with time. With minimal forcing per isentropic upslope of maritime-tropical moisture mostly confined within the low to mid levels, up to late Wednesday into Wednesday night when the potent shortwave sweeps the region, expect a light precipitation event. Per CIPS analogs showing a strong signal of prolonged freezing rain beyond 6 hours, SREF probabilities, GEFS plumes, and ensemble mean precipitation timing, confidence growing of a prolonged freezing rain event possible beginning late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday with a gradual transition N/W of the freezing line. More than likely the high terrain will see freezing rain outcomes the longest. Likely leaning too much towards one side of the goal post, perhaps with too much freezing rain over snow and/or sleet. Thermal profiles of consideration along with dry air implications, a whole slew of potential outcomes for the area. But given aforementioned agreement of probabilistics and ensemble guidance, along with analogs, the signal of a potential icing event can not be ignored. Will highlight interior forecast areas for the potential ice threat late Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving out coastal zones. Thursday and beyond... Potential inverted trough behind the departing system Wednesday into Wednesday night, additional wintry precipitation is possible if the 15.0z GFS is correct. Low confidence. Remainder of the forecast period appears dry and quiet. Most of the synoptics exiting the region Thursday night into Friday, there is only the issue of possible ocean-effect clouds lingering across the E coast of MA. N winds prevailing, temperatures look to remain near seasonable. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High Confidence. 18z Update... VFR...dry weather and mainly light winds thru Monday night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tue through Thursday/...Moderate confidence. Conditions lowering late Tuesday into Tuesday night to IFR-LIFR. Threat of SN/IP/FZRA especially across the interior. Ice accretion forecast. Northerly winds throughout, gusts up to 30 kts at time. Improvement into Friday with only ocean effect MVFR ongoing across E MA. Winds diminishing. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...High Confidence. 1 pm update... NNW winds up to 25 kts with highest winds over the eastern MA waters will diminish as the afternoon progresses. Otherwise dry weather with good vsby continue. Earlier discussion below. ================================================================= Gusty NW winds up to 25 kt, mainly across the eastern MA waters. Seas may approach 5 ft there as well, but not really a long fetch. Expanded a marginal Small Craft Advisory into Cape Cod Bay for today. Winds should diminish on the near shore waters around midday, but will linger on the outer waters through the day. Relatively light winds and seas tonight and Monday, as a high pressure moves through New England. Northwest winds diminish this evening, then gradually shift southwest by Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...Moderate confidence. Warm front lifting towards the waters ahead of which will see increasing N winds, strongest Wednesday night into Thursday as an area of low pressure develops S offshore deepening N/E towards SE coastal Canada. Gusts up to 30 kts during this development with waves potentially building to 10 feet on the E outer waters. Will see wind and wave activity diminish into Friday as the storm continues to slip E. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ250- 254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell NEAR TERM...Nocera SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...Nocera/Sipprell MARINE...Belk/Nocera/Sipprell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.