Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 112002 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT OM GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. AN OCEAN STORM WILL TRACK WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DELIVER BITTERLY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE MONDAY THEN A STORM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH MILDER AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING*** SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SNE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C TONIGHT...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS CAPE/ISLANDS. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY... HIGH PRES MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GT LAKES. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A FEW OCEAN EFFECT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARD EVENING WITH SW FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT YIELDING OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S...WITH UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT... *** ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS *** INTERESTING SET UP AS OCEAN STORM TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE BUT POTENT MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED TROF WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SE NEW ENG. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING MOISTURE AND AREA OF GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...FOCUSED ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS FRI NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT LIKELY GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW ACCUM OF 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 4 INCHES. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS S COASTAL MA WITH MINOR ACCUM POSSIBLE BUT MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE FRI NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW ENG. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT * MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND * MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY NEUTRALIZE TOWARD NEXT WEEK AS WEEKEND SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING ALLOWS FOR SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE CONUS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...CONDUIT FOR COLD AIR...WITH VERY CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CULMINATING IN POTENTIAL STORM FOR MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS FEATURE REMAINS ELUSIVE GIVEN SEVERE TRACK DISCREPANCIES AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ENOUGH SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE BASELINE THROUGH THE MID TERM. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECASTER/S THINKING AND LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. DETAILS... FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... VERY ROBUST ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...FRI NIGHT AS ENERGY TRANSFERS FROM LOW PRES MOVING OUT OF ONTARIO TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING S OF THE GULF OF MAINE INTERSECTION WITH NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THIS IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR DIRECT IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND A STRONG INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER A VERY LOCALIZED AREA. CURRENT ORIENTATION IS MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. A FEW SHSN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CAPE COD/ANN FOR OCEAN EFFECT GIVEN 25C OR GREATER SST-H85 DELTA-T VALUES. WINDS HAVE MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY COULD BE SHOULD THE WIND ORIENT MORE TO THE N. OTHERWISE...H92 TEMPS DROP FROM -12C TO -24C BY LATE SAT SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS MAY HOLD OR EVEN DROP DURING THE DAY ON SAT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MELT THE WARM HEARTS OF VALENTINES DAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY 80 PERCENT PROBS OF H85 TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ALONE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0F...BUT COMBINED WITH THIS 20-30 MPH BREEZE...SUSPECT 15-25 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STILL COLD ON SUN AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVING WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F. THE SECONDARY ARCTIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ALONG CAPE ANN/COD AGAIN AND WILL SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SNOWFALL. SUN NIGHT INTO MON... HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHT WARMING TREND. H92 TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR -12C. SO HIGHS WILL RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LESS OF A RISK FOR COLD WIND CHILLS AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. TUE AND WED... INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF. THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH 00Z...SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO E MA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH SCT FLURRIES AND BRIEF MVFR. PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD EVENING. W/NW GUSTS TO 25-30KT. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CIGS EVENING...THEN CLEARING. W/NW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT IN THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR CAPE/ISLANDS AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH SOME ACCUM LIKELY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO SE MA...OTHERWISE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS LIKELY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR COASTAL SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY CAPE COD...CAPE ANN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE. MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT LATE DAY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. TIMING UNCERTAIN. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT AND FRI...A PERIOD OF W/NW GALES AROUND 35 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND DROP BELOW SCA FRI MORNING WITH LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER E MA WATERS AND CAPE COD BAY TONIGHT SO FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. SW WINDS BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF SNOW. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS DISSIPATE SOME ON SUN...BUT ITS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL FOLLOW. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA... BUT SEAS BUILD AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .CLIMATE... BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WEEKEND. RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH... BOSTON.......15/1979 - 14/1916 HARTFORD.....11/1979 - 11/1979 PROVIDENCE...10/1979 - 10/1979 WORCESTER.... 8/1899 - 7/1979 BLUE HILL.... 9/1899 - 10/1979 RECORD COLD LOWS FOR FEB 13TH - 14TH - 15TH... BOSTON...... -3/1967 - -3/1934 - -14/1943 HARTFORD.... -7/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 PROVIDENCE.. -5/1967 - -7/1979 - -14/1943 WORCESTER...-12/1967 - -11/1979 - -19/1943 BLUE HILL...-10/1967 - -9/1979 - -18/1943 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY CLIMATE...

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