Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 010532 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 132 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL USHER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BUT SHORT-LIVED AS IT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO TRENDS AND ACTUALLY LOWER OVERALL CLOUD COVER TO NEAR CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. TONIGHT... MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHUNTS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT W/NW AS DEWPOINTS DROP SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN WHAT WILL OVERALL BE A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT. LOWS DOWN AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-60S NW TO SE AS USUAL. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TUESDAY... RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT IMPULSE YIELDS AN OVERALL LIGHT W-FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. +14-16C H85 AIRMASS LINGERS WITHIN THE LIGHT WIND PATTERN RESULTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-80S WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING AROUND THE LOW-60S. SEA-BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE SHORES AHEAD OF WHICH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE-LIKE CUMULUS. TUESDAY NIGHT... RIDGING STILL IN PLACE PUSHING A WARM-DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT. H85 TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AROUND +20C. APPEARING LIKE A GOOD SETUP OF MOISTURE TRAPPING AT THE SURFACE...AND COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR A MEASURE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...COULD BE TALKING ABOUT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINT VALUES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSEASONABLY HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY * A BIT COOLER FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL * MAINLY DRY OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND HOLDING STEADY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE TWO HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ALSO...THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL BUT THERES ENOUGH OF IT TO RESULT IN CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. WITH NO SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR BUT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE COASTS. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES ASSISTED BY WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS E MA. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY AT TERMINALS WITHIN AND W OF THE CT VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE MODERATE CONFIDENCE COMES IN. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE TIMING 13-15Z THIS MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THU. ALSO...IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBSEQUENT WIND STRESS AND SWELL FROM SW WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS EARLIER TODAY MAY RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET ON THE S/SE WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THINK WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS LATE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK W/NW WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES INTO TUESDAY...DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY CALM SEAS. EXPECT QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BOTH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DOODY/RLG MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL

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