Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161459 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1059 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. CLEARING TO THE REAR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND COLDER AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO H85. SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DRYING. WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C...HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER- 40S ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THURSDAY... HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE... DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI * MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON * CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. DAILY DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS. FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND. ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 14Z UPDATE... VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO MIDDAY DIMINISHING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GUSTING OVER 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE- FORCE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY. SMALL-CRAFTS WILL DROP OFF DURING MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE INNER WATERS...BUT AS TO THE OUTER WATERS PRESENT 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS AN AVERAGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND... BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT... THOMPSONVILLE HARTFORD MIDDLE HADDAM MONTAGUE NORTHAMPTON OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY RECEDE. OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>234-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230- 236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...DOODY/GAF MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL/GAF HYDROLOGY...DOODY/GAF

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