Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 191107 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 707 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT USERS IN A CHILLY AIRMASS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GIVE TO SOME MODERATION MON ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AS HIGH PRES SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE ALIGNED TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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7 AM UPDATE... SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AND ACCOMPANYING -22C AIR AT 500 MB WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE THROUGH 18Z. LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND RADAR SHOWS SCT SHOWERS MOVING E FROM LONG ISLAND. MOCLDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER...THEN TREND WILL BE FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TROF AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS MORNING. FALL HAS OFFICIALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NOT THE 70SWE HAVE BEEN USED TO OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP ESP AFTER 18Z. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP IT CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...SO TEMPS MAY BE A TAD LOWER THEN FORECASTED. DUE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP DECOUPLE THE WINDS...ESP AWAY FROM COASTAL REGIONS. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS UP STREAM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S SO ANTICIPATE THIS DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTLINE AND ISLANDS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE CONVERTED THE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING AND EXPANDED IT AS MANY SITES WILL DROP CLOSE TO 32F IN OVER HALF OF THE ZONE. ALSO HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADV ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE WIND WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY UP. ONLY MAJOR CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AND NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AS LOW AS FORECASTED. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL WIN OUT. FINALLY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADV FOR MARTHA`S VINEYARD AS IT IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SITES...ONLY CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO STAY UP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM CALM OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS THIS IS VERY CHILLY AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOMORROW... WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR QUIET WEATHER AND TEMPS TO MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TRANQUIL WEATHER MON WITH COOL TEMPS/SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS * A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND FROM TUE THROUGH FRI. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG OVERVIEW... DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID/LATE WEEK CLOSED LOW...DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLC REGION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SLOWING TRACKING NE OFF THE MID ATL COAST TO SE NEW ENG BY FRI. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FURTHER N WHICH KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO THE N ACROSS MAINE. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING HAS LESSENED SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME RANGE AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS STILL POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SNE. DAILIES... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY FILL WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT EXPANDING ACROSS SNE DURING TUE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY ON TUE IT WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO 60S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...COOLER INTERIOR. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... EXACT STORM DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO VARIABLE NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SOURCES...WE FOLLOWED A SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH PREV FORECAST AS A BASIS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY EXPECTED BUT TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF YIELDS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD OF 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INCREASING TO 2-4 INCHES TO THE NORTH. TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE SCT SHOWERY PRECIP BY FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES E OF CAPE COD. IT APPEARS STRONG WIND THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS MAIN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH. IN FACT 00Z GEFS INDICATES STRONGEST EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES /3-4SD/ FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG. THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TO THE NORTH ACROSS MAINE...AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RANGE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THIS RISK AREA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION APPEARS GREATER THAN INUNDATION GIVEN WAVE ACTION OVER SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...VFR. MORNING CLOUDS BREAK TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN. TUESDAY THROUGH THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL THEME...WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE...LOW PROB IF A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS WILL DROP FROM 30 KTS TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER. IN FACT SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GONZALO WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEAS WILL STAY UP...AROUND 8 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS WILL END ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS. TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MON NIGHT INTO TUE GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST BY LATE TUE...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT STRONGEST E/NE GALE FORCE WINDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH LOW PROB OF GALES AND HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 10+ FT EXPECTED ACROSS NE MA COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH LESS WIND AND SEAS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ005-006-009>014-017-018-020-021. NH...NONE. RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ002-004-005-007. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR RIZ001-003-006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

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