Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 080833 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 333 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1025 PM UPDATE... NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE THOROUGHLY REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA ALONG WITH THE LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. IMPRESSIVE STORM WITH LIGHTNING SHOWING UP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS. SNOW REACHES THE SOUTH COAST BETWEEN 2 AND 4AM...PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM...THEN INTO THE BOSTON/WORCESTER METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM. PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST MAY BEGIN BRIEFLY AS RAIN...BUT WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO SNOW BY 6 AM OR SO. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST DOES THE HEAVY SNOW SHIELD REACH GIVEN THE POWERFUL STORM TRACKING SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WELL NORTH OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO REACH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FROM THIS TRACK. THERE ALSO WILL LIKELY BE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT FROM COLD LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING...AS WELL AS THE LAND/SEA AND COASTAL FRONT WHICH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH. FINALLY...MAY ALSO BE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE COIN...CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIMES CAUSES ISSUES WITH THE MODEL QPF FIELDS AND LIMIT NORTHWEST EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW. MID LEVEL CENTERS SO FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MAY ALSO BE A LIMITATION...SINCE WE MAY HAVE TO RELY ON LOW LEVEL/MESOSCALE FORCES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. OVERALL...HEAVIEST SNOW FALL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHEAST MA/CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT THERE MAY BE OTHER BANDED AREAS FOR MESOSCALE REASONS. A MUCH BROADER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE INTERIOR. OVERALL...IF ANYTHING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A TAD HIGH BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST DATA BUT WILL HOLD THE FORECAST UNTIL REVIEWING THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE. REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... *** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS *** *** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS *** *** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT *** *** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON *** 12Z MODELS... 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM WHEELHOUSE. OVERVIEW ... IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER. ONSET ... SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM. SNOW INTENSITY ... HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z-20Z. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ACROSS CAPE COD. STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ... INITIALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 70 MPH! HAZARDS/HEADLINES ... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR 5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BIG PICTURE... RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MIDWEEK...THE LAST MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE ORIGINITATED OVER ARCTIC CANADA AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPS OVER US COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER IT PASSES. CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC. THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY...POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FAVOR FORMATION OF ANOTHER COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SAID COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK LIFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FGEN FIELDS ARE MARGINAL BUT FAVOR SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ON SNOW SHOWERS VS A STRATIFORM SNOW. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES...TECHNICALLY A MODERATE SNOW ACCUM...ACROSS RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND THE UPPER COLD POOL APPROACHES. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS GROUP MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY LIMITED MIXING WEDNESDAY...TO 950 MB...WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S. DEEPER MIXING THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION STARTS. MIXING REACHES ABOVE 900 MB THURSDAY WITH TEMPS SUPPORTING UPPER 20S- LOWER 30S. WINDS IN THE THURSDAY MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST AT 25-30 MPH...SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AS NORTHWEST GUSTS. FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND IS WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING WILL BRING 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL FALL INTO THE -20S AND SUGGEST MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND 15-25 SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE AIRMASS...MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF MIN TEMPS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO LOOK REASONABLE. SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND WINDS OVER 10 KT WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE. AS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL SUITES TO SEE IF THE 00Z ECMWF WEEKEND LOW IS A BLIP OR AN ACTUAL PROBLEM. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THRU MIDNIGHT ... VFR/DRY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT ... CIGS LOWERING QUICKLY INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE REGION 08Z-12Z. VSBYS MAINLY VFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD 12Z SOUTH COAST OF MA. AFTER 12Z MONDAY ... HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND ALL OF EASTERN MA WITH IFR/LIFR 12Z-18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING TO 21Z-24Z SOUTHEAST MA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" WILL BE COMMON 12Z-18Z OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...LESS INTO CT-WESTERN/CENTRAL MA. VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST WITH STRONGEST OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LIKELY WITH LOW PROB UP 65 KT! SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU 00Z TUE ... KFMH ... 10-16 INCHES KBOS ... 6 TO 10 INCHES KPVD ... 8 TO 12 INCHES KBDL ... 2 TO 5 INCHES KORH ... 4 TO 7 INCHES KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVY SNOW THREAT 12Z-18Z WITH VSBY 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW. LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS. VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEEDED. WEDNESDAY...WINDS BECOME WEST LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS LINGER 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON THE SOUTEHRN WATERS AS WELL AS EAST OF CAPE COD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS...SUBSIDING FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... 4 PM UPDATE ... HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE TIMELINE. EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH 1-1.5 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOW RISK OF 70 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THUS FOLLOWED THE MORE BULLISH ETSS SURGE. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES OF 10-20 FT JUST OFFSHORE ON TOP OF THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WAVES TO RUNUP THE SHORELINE AND UP AND OVER SEAWALLS AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS MONDAY 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER. COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MON EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE ... GIVEN THIS OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING SO FAR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SE SWELLS AND PUSH OF WATER THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE MON EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ018-019- 021>024. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019-022-024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ004>007- 012>017-020-026. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ007-015-016-023. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-003- 008>011. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250- 254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-235-237. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB MARINE...WTB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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