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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151921
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LATE SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WILL CONTINUE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN CENTERS AND ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
QUEBEC. THE NAM/GFS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS THAT KEEPS THE MORNING DRY AND STARTS SHOWERS IN THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AS EXHIBITED IN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...SO HAVE KEPT JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER...DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES
EASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS QUEBEC. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
AT TIMES.  THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF THESE
IMPULSES AND ASSOCD PRECIP IN FAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW.  MODELS
DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH GFS LIKELY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AS IT SPINS UP A CYCLONE FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH EVOLVES INTO STRONG COASTAL LOW FOR MID WEEK PERIOD. WE
DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION AND LEANED TOWARD MORE STABLE ECMWF WHICH
SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK.

MONDAY...
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION.  MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ARE
LIMITING FACTORS SO WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS. A
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT COOLER 70S S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
FOLLOWED ECMWF WHICH SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE
N WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND IN FACT
ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IF ANY QPF.  WE CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS.

WED THROUGH FRI...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI.
DISCOUNTED GFS FORECAST OF STRONG COASTAL LOW TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
WED AS THIS IS LIKELY A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE FROM
EARLIER COMPLEX IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEA BREEZE FORMING.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCT -SHRA DURING THE AFTN.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SCT
-SHRA.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WNW WINDS 10-15 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. USED THE SLOWER SWANNAM WAVE HEIGHTS...WHICH BRINGS SEAS
UP TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY TO 15-20KT BUT EXPECT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW
25 KT AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED. SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA THRU WED. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS GFS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FORECAST
OF STRONG SFC LOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
MANY RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA...SEE BELOW
FOR A LISTING OF THESE. ALL OF THE AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
ARE SLOWLY RECEDING.  SOME ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT...WHILE OTHERS MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO LONGER. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THIS RAIN WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS WERE...AND
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS
OF 330 PM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON

IN ADDITION...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN RI WHERE THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER REMAINS IN
FLOOD.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
HYDROLOGY...RLG