Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 260222 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1022 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cool front moves through New England overnight pushing any leftover showers offshore. High pressure will bring dry but continued hot conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaches the area on Thursday. This front may linger in our area into this weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers along the South Coast and souther waters, but these are slowly diminishing with time. Additional showers popped over Southern NH after sunset and moved near Haverhill and Newburyport, before moving off to the northeast. Based on the movement of the showers at 10 pm, there could be a few light showers over Cape Cod and Islands until midnight. Otherwise rain-free or a trend to rain-free after midnight. High pressure centered over the Northern Plains with rising pressures moving into Western MA and CT. Expect increasing subsidence along with a clearing trend overnight. Surface dew points continue in the upper 60s and low 70s even across much of Upstate New York. Expect a humid night with light wind. This would allow localized ground fog especially where rainfall may have been observed. Indications suggest Cape/Islands see a mix of marine fog/stratus. Minimum temps mainly 65 to 70.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday...Even with some cooling aloft, high temperatures still are forecast to soar to the low to mid 90s. This is courtesy of mostly sunny skies, some downsloping west-northwest flow, and 925 mb temperatures from 23C to 25C. Tuesday night...Dry with high pressure in control. Lows in the 60s to near 70 along coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Lower humidity lingers thru midweek * Hot temperatures anticipated Wednesday away from the coast * Cold front approaches the region on Thursday * Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Friday and possibly into the weekend Overview... 25/12z guidance is in decent overall agreement through mid week.However there continues to be significant differences in solutions for Thursday night and on. 12Z models seem to be in general agreement on bringing a cold front into our area Thursday or Thursday night. However, models differ on when the front pushes south of our area. Will continue to go with a consensus approach for this forecast. Details... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Dry weather with high pressure in control. Still hot, especially away from the coasts. Sea breezes are expected to develop, which should help to limit high temps along the shorelines. Thursday...We should see another day of hot conditions, however a cold front will be approaching our area from the N/NW. Moisture increasing along the front should enable isolated to scattered afteroon t-storms on Thursday/Thursday evening. Thursday night and Friday...Uncertainty increases with this portion of the forecast. Models differ on how far south cold front pushes, as well as timing on potential open wave or deeper low pressure passing near/south of our area. Will have chance pops for showers/t- storms. Friday high temps expected to be a few degrees lower than previous days. Saturday and Sunday...Lots of uncertainty remains with this portion of the forecast, leading to a low confidence forecast. ECMWF keeps frontal boundary nearby, with potential low pressure moving along the front. GFS pushes the front south of our area for much of the weekend. Will continue with a chance of showers for this timeframe. Monday...Continued significant amount of uncertainty for this timeframe, could have a drier period with frontal boundary exiting the area. Will go with only slight chance pop for this period. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... 02Z Update...Moderate confidence. VFR initially for most of the area, then late night MVFR/IFR fog especially at typically prone airports. IFR/LIFR stratus and fog anticipated along the Cape/Islands. Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence. Mainly VFR after early morning fog/stratus dissipates. Winds mainly NW with gusts 15-20 kt during the afternoon hours. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate to high confidence. High confidence Wednesday. Moderate confidence Thursday through Saturday. VFR conditions expected on Wednesday. Mainly VFR conditions Thursday, except MVFR cigs/vsbys possible in scattered afternoon/eveningshowers/thunderstorms. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR cigs/vsbys possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms. Potential for patchy low ceilings/fog at night.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. Seas remain below SCA, although they may build to 3 to 4 ft along the south coast on Tuesday. Winds from the W-SW tonight will shift to mainly west to northwest on Tuesday with some gusts to 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially in the southern coastal waters. Light northwest winds Tuesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate to high confidence. Quiet boating weather is expected for Wednesday. During Thursday into Saturday winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria, but the potential exists for areas of low clouds, fog, and scattered showers and thunderstorms which would limit visibilities at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... During Tuesday, behind the departing cool front, much drier conditions are expected across southern New England. Minimum relative humidity during Tuesday is expected to range from 30 to 40 percent across much of the area. The exception is along Cape Ann and the Cape/Islands, where minimum RH values of 40 to 60 percent are forecast. Northwest winds around 10 mph may gust to 20 mph at times during Tuesday. Winds are expected to be lighter on Wednesday with nearshore sea breeze develompent. However, minimum RH will drop to 30 to around 40 percent across the interior. Along east coastal MA and southern RI, sea breezes will allow for higher minimum RH of 40 to 70 percent. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>016- 026. RI...None. MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NMB/GAF NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB/GAF SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...NMB/GAF MARINE...WTB/NMB/GAF FIRE WEATHER...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.