Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 150725 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 325 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS...THEN CLEARING. MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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330 AM UPDATE... SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE RAP MODEL RH AT 925 MB HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS THAT HAS FORMED IN THREE MAIN AREAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY STATE...CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY...AND EAST COAST OF NH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS HAD FORMED OVERNIGHT IN OTHER AREAS...SUCH AS WORCESTER COUNTY AS WELL. THE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THE RESULT OF A COLD POOL IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TEMPERATURES IN THAT LAYER COOL UNTIL ABOUT 15-18Z AND THEN THEY BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BASES MAINLY 4000-5000 FT IN EASTERN NY AND THUS SHOULD MAKE IT OVER THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER TO 60-70 PCT IN MUCH OF SNE...ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE FOR THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...AM EXPECTING CLOUD COVER TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE WATER ALONG THE E COAST OF MA AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...A TRICKY FORECAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND THUS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SHOULD STILL BE ABOUT AS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN INTERIOR SE MA. LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG E COASTAL MA AND SOUTHERN RI IN THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL END AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN HAS AS MUCH AS 0.4 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY 65 TO 70.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED THROUGH SAT * FROST POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S * MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEXT SUN DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MAY SEE A BIT OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDINESS AFFECT CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION WED INTO WED NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE ON BOTH LATE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO JUST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA...WHERE FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NY AND THE BERKSHIRES AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CLOUDS FORECAST TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR MAINLY CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 08Z IN NW MA SW NH. LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR FOG INLAND. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A TOUCH OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT LATE TUE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO TUE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE INTO WED BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST EARLY TUE...TO NORTH NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THU. MARGINAL SCA SEAS AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THU INTO FRI ACROSS SOME OF THE OUTER-WATERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008. NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/GAF NEAR TERM...GAF SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/GAF MARINE...FRANK/GAF

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