Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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133 FXUS61 KBOX 181338 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 937 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGING COOLER MARINE AIR TODAY...BUT IT SILL WILL BE A RATHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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935 AM UPDATE... A VERY TRICK FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE LOTS OF BREAKS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WE WERE ALSO SEEING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN OFF THE OCEAN AND LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT ON THE EASTERN MA COAST. IT WAS BASICALLY COMPLETELY SUNNY JUST EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...GIVEN WE ARE QUITE WARM ALOFT WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A FEW LOCATIONS THERE TOUCH 80. MEANWHILE...ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN MA/RI...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST...HIGHS PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW 60 DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE WITH EAST TO TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES/SKY COVER IS QUITE LOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE THE NECESSARY UPDATES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNINGS TEMPS WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INSTABILITY INCREASES AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND K INDICES ABOVE 30. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL BELOW 0 IN A FEW LOCATIONS BUT THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD. WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY. IN ADDITION...850MB WINDS ARE ONLY 20-25KTS. NOT ENOUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG QUICKLY. DON/T BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF STORMS COULD SEE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WHERE STORMS TRAIN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE TUE EVENING * DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY OVERVIEW... MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL VORTEX SETTING UP ACROSS SE CANADA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND NEW ENG. A FEW SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BRING A FEW FRONTS INTO THE REGION BUT MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS POLAR JET WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPS SUPPRESSED TO THE SE US. NEXT WEEKEND...THE TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NE WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE US. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO W NEW ENG AROUND 00Z WED. AXIS OF MARGINAL SFC INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL BE CONFINED TO W ZONES INVOF THE FRONT SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE EVENING IN THE WEST. 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOW PROB OF A STRONG TSTM IN W NEW ENG IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS REST OF SNE IN THE EVENING UNTIL THE FROPA...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY... DRY POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND IT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTH WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING SOME DIURNAL CU...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN RI/SE MA. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODELS BRING A WEAK TROF INTO NEW ENG THU FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE FRI/FRI EVENING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER ON FRI WITH THE COLD FRONT. SEASONABLE TEMPS THU WITH SOME MODERATION FRI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION SAT WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS...THEN HIGH MOVES S OF NEW ENG SUN WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN OFF THE OCEAN. SLOWEST AREAS TO IMPROVE WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN MA...BUT EVEN HERE MOST LOCATIONS PROBABLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/TRENDS...EXPECT LOW END MVFR CIGS TO SCOUR OUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN OFF THE OCEAN. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. WED THROUGH FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W/NW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON WED.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS IN THE EVENING. WED...W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THU INTO FRI...MAINLY SW WINDS BELOW SCA WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG

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