Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 271914 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 314 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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SKC ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN SPITE OF THIS SUNSHINE...EAST SEA BREEZES HAVE STRUGGLED WHILE SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PENETRATE INLAND. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A VERY WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST. THEREFORE...E COASTAL TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY OVERACHIEVED IN COMPARED TO EARLIER GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE...THE CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND MASS FIELDS SHOW A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SETUP RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH INVERSION DEVELOPING BENEATH H92 TEMPS ALREADY BETWEEN 0C AND +2C. AFTERNOON DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL BE EXPANDING FREEZE WARNINGS TO HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND NORTHERN PROVIDENCE COUNTY RI...FROST ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN OTHER ACTIVATED ZONES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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TOMORROW... DRY WX PREVAILS WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OUT OF THE NW THANKS TO A FURTHER WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER/EARLIER ACTIVATION OF THE SEA BREEZES ON BOTH THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS SO HIGHS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN +4C AND +5C...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +2C...SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 60F OR LOW 60S BUT WITH A COLDER START TO THE DAY...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. MID 50S WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW NIGHT... INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID ATLANTIC LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND FORCES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER N. AT THIS TIME...AFTER LOOKING AT BUFKIT...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE SFC TO H7 LAYER TO OVERCOME TO WARRANT POPS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH NIL. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT COOLING...YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND * RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE 26/12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND MOVING OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND INTO THE MARITIMES. THE 27/00Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MORE IN CONTROL WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BRINGING AN APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...THE EPS HAS ONE SOLUTION OFF THE DELMARVA WITH THE REST SPREAD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING AND TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY. THE GEFS HAS MOST MEMBERS SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA LOCATION MONDAY MORNING THOUGH ONE SOLUTION FOLLOWS THAT PATH BUT WITH ALL SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND NEW ENGLAND AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE...AM LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN AND A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH COAST...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FOR THE FIRST OF MAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS STATED ABOVE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. BUT GIVEN THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SO HARD TO SAY WHERE THEY WILL BE. RIGHT NOW BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS...THEY LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z... VFR. SOUTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND. EAST COASTAL SEA BREEZES MAY STALL NEAR COASTLINE...NOT PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INLAND. TONIGHT... VFR. LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH COASTS...STARTING AT THE MORE TRADITIONAL TIME. KBOS TERMINAL...NON-TRADITIONAL SEA BREEZE MAY LINGER NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BOS TERMINAL...YIELDING A WIND SWING BETWEEN SE AND SW AT TIMES UNTIL EVENING. SEABREEZES MORE LIKELY THU...STARTING AT MORE TRADITIONAL TIMES. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI/MA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WITH SEAS INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO ABOUT 5 FEET. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET BOATING WEATHER. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ017-018-020-021-023. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-019-022. RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ002>007. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...DOODY/RLG MARINE...DOODY

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