Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 180533 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 133 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. IT MAY TURN UNSETTLED THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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200 AM UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BE ON THE SUBSTANCE SIDE YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION WITH SITES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50F FOR DEWPOINTS. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WELL AND WITH CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT MVY HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 55F WHICH IS THE COOLEST TEMP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. A COOL AUTUMN LIKE NIGHT EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE GOOD RADIATORS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND SEASONABLE TUE/WED AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND * DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS THU/FRI OVERVIEW... NOT THE MOST SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IN SIGHT. FAIRLY BLOCKY PATTERN FOR AUGUST PERSISTS...WHICH INITIALLY HELPS SUPPRESS FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR S TUE-WED BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THU-FRI BEFORE TAKING UP RESIDENCE E OF NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THESE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE ON NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... TUE INTO WED... COMBINATION OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCK AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... WHICH WILL SUPPRESS MOST OF RAINFALL WELL TO OUR S. WHILE MOST OF LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM GREAT LAKES STAYS TO OUR N AND W...FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REACH W NEW ENGLAND LATE IN DAY WED OR MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT. THU INTO FRI... RIDGING PUSHES OFFSHORE AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND EVEN TRIES TO CLOSE OFF BRIEFLY. LIFT AND PRESENCE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AS SHOWN BY 12Z GFS...BUT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD COUNTERACT AND KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT AWAY FROM COAST AND MORE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF W NEW ENGLAND. KEPT CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS WITH HIGHER VALUES W. TROUGH OPENS UP AND WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER MARITIMES...BUT E/NE FLOW PERSISTS AT SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF REGION. EXPECT TO SEE FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS FRI BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN THU. NEXT WEEKEND... UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENCE ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. STILL LOOKING AT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH E/NE FLOW PREVAILING. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH W/NW WINDS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MONDAY AND 14Z TUESDAY. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW FLOW...BUT SEA BREEZE EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. SEA BREEZE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AROUND 14/15Z. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT E/NE FLOW. SEAS MAY COME CLOSE TO 5 FT BY THU/FRI ON OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE COD AS WINDS COME CLOSE TO 20KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS THU INTO FRI ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH PERIOD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...DUNTEN/JWD MARINE...RLG/JWD

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