Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 191409 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1009 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will increase by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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GOES 16 image at 10 AM shows lingering patch of valley fog around Greenfield MA and upriver. Additional patches are either gone or trending quickly to non-existance. Surface pressure map shows high pressure in place over the Eastern USA with axis from the Southeast USA to just south of New England. This will mean a developing southwest flow across the region. Winds aloft are showing 15-20 knots through 5000 feet and around 25 knots at 6000-7000 feet. Model data shows winds in the mixed layer will increase this afternoon with speeds around 25 knots. So the afternoon may feature gusty southwest winds. Observed temps in the mixed layer this morning support highs in the lower to mid 70s. Will maintain current forecast temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight...Weak front shifts to the east. Clear skies. Winds shift to the W and weaken overnight. Lows mainly in the 40s except some 50s Cape and Islands. Friday...Strong high pressure centered over the Appalachians will provide bright sunshine. Northwest winds may gust to near 20 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures are only expected to be slightly cooler...in the upper 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * Above average temperatures with dry conditions lasting into Monday * Precipitation chances are increasing for the middle of next week. 19/00Z guidance remains in excellent agreement through this weekend. High pressure in control with dry weather and above normal temperatures continuing. Some detail difference begin to arise with the handling of a closed mid level low across the southern tier of the USA early next week. These detail differences are almost entirely the result of timing differences in breaking down the strong mid level ridge along the Eastern Seaboard. The primary impact of this closed low will be to provide energy ahead of a cold front toward the middle of next week. Given the strength of the downstream ridge, will favor the less progressive guidance, which would be closer to the 00Z ECMWF. That said, it is becoming increasingly likely our region will see some light precipitation sometime late Monday night into Wednesday, with the most likely timeframe currently being around Tuesday. This could change over the next several days as the timing of a slow- moving front becomes clearer. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...Generally high confidence. VFR and clear skies for the afternoon. A weak cold front approaches, but dry air will limit the sky cover to some cirrus. SW winds may gust to 23-27 kt this afternoon, especially toward 21Z. VFR conditions tonight and Friday. Winds shifting to the W tonight and diminishing, then NW Friday with gusts up to 20 kt. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... High Confidence. VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. This afternoon and tonight...Southwest winds increase this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt likely over all waters by late afternoon and a slight increase in outer seas to near 5 ft. These winds persist into the overnight, then slowly diminish as they shift to the W late tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters. Friday...NW winds may gust to 20 kt and seas are forecast to slowly subside to 3 to 4 ft. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High confidence. Great boating weather as high pressure prevails through this upcoming weekend with sub Small Craft Advisory conditions.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Ahead of a very weak cold front, southwest winds will gust 20-25 mph across much of the region this afternoon. There is a chance of a few gusts to 25-30 mph by 4 or 5 PM. Relatively mild conditions (highs in the low-mid 70s) and continued dry dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s will yield min RH values between 30 and 35 percent, especially in CT and Western/Northern Mass. With an overall recent lack of precipitation, there could be an elevated fire weather risk for today. A Special Weather Statement continues to highlight this risk. On Friday, NW winds will be a little less, closer to 20 mph, but the minimum RH will be closer to 30 percent. Thus there could again be some risk of elevated fire potential.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk/GAF NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/GAF MARINE...Belk/GAF FIRE WEATHER...

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