Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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757 FXUS61 KBOX 222302 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 702 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking south of New England may bring a few showers Thursday, mainly along the south coast and islands. High pressure builds over the region Friday through Monday bringing a spell of dry weather with a warming trend. Humid conditions return by Tuesday/Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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700 PM update... Overall trend in the forecast for tonight remains on track. weak boundary/cold front has pushed through the entire area removing all chance for stratus and fog for the Cape and the Islands. Dewpoints continue to drop into the 50s for that areas. Previous Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging and surface ridge will bring mainly clear skies and light winds tonight. However, area of stratus developing south of New Eng will flirt with the Cape/Islands into this evening. May also see some increasing mid/high clouds ahead of a warm front late tonight across SW New Eng. With decent radiational cooling low temps will drop back into the 50s, with some upper 40s colder spots in western MA and interior E MA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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700 PM Update... Made changes to the Thursday forecast for the 7PM update. The 18z NAM and GFS continue to trend towards the EC and RGEM to show a shut out for southern New England for precip. There may be a spot shower or two, but the precip chances continue to decrease. Have reflected this within the forecast. It may even be that ACK could be the only site to see any precip as MCS will rob the moisture for any showers to develop. Will have to continue to watch MCS development and how it propagates overnight. Thursday... Surface low pres moves along boundary and tracks south of New England. The morning will start out dry with some sunshine but deeper moisture and weak lift north of the low may bring a period of showers to the region, especially near the south coast. There is uncertainty with how far north deeper moisture gets. ECMWF and RGEM are south and a shutout for SNE while NAM/GFS and UKMET bring rain to SNE, mainly south of the Pike. One factor which may complicate how far N moisture gets is a potential MCS which is forecast to track across mid atlc region. This could cut off moisture transport into SNE. We will go with just chc pops along and south of the Mass Pike with likely over the islands. Confidence is below normal and it is possible rain remains mostly south of New Eng. Some uncertainty with temps which will be dependent on sensible weather. Highs should be mainly in the 70s, possibly near 80 near the NH border, but if rain remains to the south will likely see temps reach into the 80s. Thursday night... Low pres moves offshore as high pres builds to the north. Clearing skies and light winds will result in another cool night with lows in the 50s, with some upper 40s possible in colder spots in CT valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Dry and seasonably warm Fri * Much warmer this weekend into early next week with 90+ degree temps possible Sun/Mon in the interior * More humid with chance of showers/t-storms next Tue/Wed Overview... 12z guidance is in good agreement for the period. Anticipate a warm- up through the weekend into early next week. Dry weather will prevail as high pressure sits over the area. Strong ridge looks to build out West early next week pushing a broad trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. A potent shortwave moving through this flow on Tuesday could bring a cold front into New England during the Tuesday/Wed timeframe resulting in scattered showers and some thunder. Timing is still in question for this system. Dailies... Friday into Monday... Broad upper level trough over the region on Friday and Saturday with building heights by Sunday into Monday. At the surface, high pressure will build allowing for dry weather to prevail. Some moisture in the mid-levels could develop diurnal cu during the afternoon hours, but mostly sunny skies will occur. Friday through Sunday, winds will be light at the surface and in the mid-levels allowing for sea breezes to develop each day. The only day where sea breeze development will be unlikely is on Monday where 925 mb winds will be increasing close to 20 kts. Otherwise temps on Friday will be seasonable as 850 mb temps warm to 11C. As mid-level ridge builds over the Northeast, 850 mb temps will warm 14C to 16C into Monday. This will warm temps into the mid to upper 80s with several locations across the interior reaching the low 90s by Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and Beyond... Still a lot of uncertainty in regards to the middle of next week. The high pressure ridge slides offshore on Monday, which will allow for an increase in humidity because of the return flow. The next frontal system approaching on Tuesday will have plenty of moisture and lift to work with. Guidance ensembles continue to show instability so have included thunderstorms into the forecast for now. The ECMWF is still a bit slower so have included chc pops on Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/... Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Very low prob for stratus on the islands and portions of cape cod. Thursday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR CIGS, though may see brief MVFR along the S coast in showers. Lower risk of showers further N. Thursday night...High confidence. VFR. KBOS TAF...High confidence. KBDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High confidence. Friday through Sunday... VFR. Sea Breezes likely each day. Monday...VFR with southerly gusts near 15-20 kts.
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&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence. Winds will remain below SCA through Thu night. Light winds tonight become E/SE Thu, then north Thu night. Lingering 5 ft swell over the southern waters will gradually subside below 5 ft later tonight into Thu morning. Showers possible over the southern waters Thu. Outlook /Friday through Monday/...High confidence. Quiet boating weather through the period. Decreasing southerly swells on Friday will drop seas below SCA. Onshore flow each day as seas breezes develop each day. Gusty southerly winds near 15-20 kts on Monday. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dunten NEAR TERM...KJC/Dunten SHORT TERM...KJC/Dunten LONG TERM...Dunten AVIATION...KJC/Dunten MARINE...KJC/Dunten

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