Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 191915 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 215 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will be followed by a brief cool down tonight into Tuesday. Milder weather returns the middle of next week. However, another pair of fronts may be accompanied by some precipitation sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this point, Thursday has potential to be the warmest day of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Unseasonably mild day across SNE with temps ranging through the 50s and near 60 across portions of CT/RI and SE MA. Mid level shortwave dropping south across New Eng will drive a cold front through SNE late afternoon and evening followed by a wind shift to NW and colder temperatures overnight. Lows will settle back to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds will become gusty across the Cape and islands with occasional gusts to 25-30 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Monday... Mid level trof amplifies to the east of New England as additional shortwave energy rotates through. This will result in a dry but brisk NW flow. The column is dry which will lead to mostly sunny skies, but some ocean effect clouds will be moving across the outer Cape. Temps will be near seasonable normals, generally upper 30s higher terrain to lower 40s elsewhere. NW winds will gust to 20-25 mph at times. Monday night... Strong high pres builds into New Eng with clear skies and diminishing wind. Good radiational cooling will result in a cold night with lows dropping into the teens in the colder outlying areas and 20s elsewhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights... * Seasonably cool Tuesday * Light rain/pockets of freezing rain possible Tuesday night into Wednesday * Thursday looks to be our warmest day * More widespread rain possible Friday night into Saturday Overview and model preferences... General consensus is for amplified flow over the eastern half of the USA to become more zonal toward mid week. Once this happens, not expecting to see major temperature swings. In fact, expecting trend of above normal temperatures to continue. Still plenty of detail differences with timing of certain features, which is not uncommon in nearly zonal flow scenarios. While minor at first, these differences significantly grow with time. Have low confidence in the details, after Friday. Preferred a consensus approach to smooth over the less predictable details, especially late this week. Details... Monday Night into Tuesday...Still quiet, with high pressure overhead. Low risk for rain to arrive across western portions of southern New England late in the day. Near normal temperatures. Tuesday night into Wednesday... Guidance converging on the idea of a brief period of rain, but differ in their timing. GFS is fastest by about 6 hours. Most likely window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. With this timing, cannot completely rule out the possibility of some sleet or freezing rain. These details will need to be resolved over the next day or so. A weak front should move back north, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing, ending the threat of mixed precipitation. Thursday into Friday morning... A clipper-like low pressure should move through the Great Lakes. Persistent southwest winds should lead to above normal temperatures once more. Not a lot of moisture to the southeast of this system, so thinking dry weather should prevail across much of our region. It`s possible, if southwest winds become strong enough, for Thursday to be the warmest day of this week. Will need to see how much snow melts between now and then. The more snow which melts, the more likely we could see a few locations approach 60 degrees. Friday afternoon into Saturday... Huge solution spread in the ensembles and deterministic guidance. Have little confidence in the details, although there is general agreement for a low pressure to move northeast near the Great Lakes. Thus, expecting any precipitation would be rain. Some signs this system could be energetic enough where some thunderstorms would be a possibility. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Some MVFR cigs may develop across the interior tonight into Monday morning. Also some ocean effect MVFR cigs possible across the outer Cape and ACK late tonight and lasting through Mon night. NW gusts to 25 kt developing over the outer Cape/Islands later tonight into Monday. Elsewhere, NW gusts to 20 kt expected Monday. Diminishing wind becoming light Mon night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...Moderate confidence. Tuesday... Generally VFR. Winds diminish as a high pressure moves overhead. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday... A weak cold front approaches our region, with southwest winds out ahead of it. This front is likely not to make it completely through southern New England. CIGs and Vsbys lower to MVFR in showers, then improve to VFR after the front passes a location. Thursday... Weak front returns north as a warm front, but not a lot of moisture to work with. VFR conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday Night/...High confidence. Tonight...A surge of gusty NW winds will develop behind a cold front this evening with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest across eastern waters. Monday...Winds gradually diminish below SCA by afternoon, except across eastern waters where northerly gusts to 25 kt will persist most of the day, Monday night...Some leftover northerly gusts to 25 kt eastern waters in the evening, otherwise diminishing wind as high pres builds into the waters. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday...High confidence. Rough seas and winds diminish. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Relatively tranquil boating conditions. Scattered rain may lead to reduced visibility at times. Thursday...Moderate confidence. Relatively tranquil boating conditions continue.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-232. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ233>235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Monday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ255. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for ANZ256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/KJC MARINE...Belk/KJC

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