Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 281803 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 202 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WED. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI AND/OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 2 PM UPDATE... A FEW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE COVERED THE REGION AT MID AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE UPPER CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT WILL FALL BACK DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE WELL OVER BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER NIGHT WITH THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY * SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN * SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS MAINTAINS A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN POSITION CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY. IN BETWEEN MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THRU WED. THUS WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS TYPICAL SHORT COMINGS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. THUS LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES HERE. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER... MONDAY...OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE IN ST LWRN RVR VLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME MODELS GENERATING QPF THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. NEVERTHELESS A VERY NICE DAY. TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH VLY. APPEARS WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY AND WESTWARD INTO NY STATE. THUS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. S-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE U70S AND L80S...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE REGION YIELDING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THAN TUE. GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG T-STORMS. WARM AND HUMID WITH RELIEF ARRIVING WED NIGHT OR THU AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THU/FRI/SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD HERE SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SUGGEST DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WED. THEN A RISK FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FRI AND/OR SAT AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FRI/SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL JUST REMAINED TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY FOR RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOW RISK OF MVFR ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR LIKELY. THU...TRENDING TOWARD VFR AND DRIER AS WELL. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TIL SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 200 PM UPDATE... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALES NOW REMAIN FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH MAINLY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ELSEWHERE AT MID AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WINDS HAVE GONE TEMPORARILY LIGHT NEAR PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUNDS AS LOW PRESSURE WAS ON TOP OF THAT REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE LET HEADLINES DROP COMPLETELY BUT THERE WERE AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM LEFTOVER LARGE SE SWELLS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TUE NIGHT AND WED...S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BECOME LIKELY AS WELL. THURSDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH FRONT LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015- 016-019>024. RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN

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