Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 141739 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 139 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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130 PM UPDATE... BLUSTERY S-WINDS. NEAR TO EXCEEDING WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH MAINLY BEING OBSERVED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ISOLATED THREAT AS A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT WOULD LIKELY ADD LITTLE VALUE. GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS INCLUDING BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WAS A GOOD CALL. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE AND ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS OFF OUR SOUTH COAST. TUESDAY... RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION WED MORNING * BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK * MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY MODELS AND CONFIDENCE... OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT FEATURE TO FOCUS ON IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER 48 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CONUS...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT BELIEVE ACROSS CT AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WET WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY...INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THAT THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LOWER VSBYS AND PONDING ACROSS ROADWAYS. FINALLY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO INDICATING FOR MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION. ALSO WITH STRONG 925MB LLJ BETWEEN 50-70KTS...ANY STRONG SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD TAP INTO THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS THAT WOULD GENERALLY LOOK WEAKER. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN VERY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT MIXING OR A CHANGE SNOW VERY BRIEFLY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS STRONG CAA MOVING INTO REGION EXPECT A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSTANCE AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE BUILDING HIGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR YIELDING TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REGION. OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR WED AND THURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND RAW ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE AS EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DROP TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT BY SEVERAL DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS. ANY VEGETATION THAT DECIDED TO START GROWING THIS PAST WEEK...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WILL NEED TO BE COVERED AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. NO PLANS FOR FREEZE HEADLINES AS GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL 20TH. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING DUE TO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MASS COASTLINE TO STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IN FACT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE CAPE OR EVEN BOSTON WILL GET ABOVE 50 UNTIL SAT OR MAYBE SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THERE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SOGGY AND COOLER WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 18Z UPDATE... STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS. IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002. COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/. SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1030 AM UPDATE... GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET. TONIGHT... FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. TUESDAY... RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER IN RESPONSE. WINDS START TO RELAX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT. ROUGH SEAS LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235- 237-250-254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234- 236-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF

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