Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 160756 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 356 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front sweeps across the region early this morning and is accompanied by scattered showers, then moves offshore later this morning/early afternoon. Behind the front, it turns sharply cooler and brisk this afternoon with temperatures then dropping down close to freezing by daybreak Tuesday. Gradual warm up begins Wednesday and continues into the weekend. After this mornings showers, dry weather prevails the remainder of the workweek and likely through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 145 AM Update... Cold front crossing N central and W Mass into N central CT at 05Z. Winds have shifting to NW from KORE-KCEF-KBDL with sct -SHRA reported from NE and central Mass into N central through SW CT. Dewpts have dropped to the mid-upper 50s across the northern Berkshires into SW NH. Will continue to monitor for potential of gusty W-NW winds as front passes through the pre dawn hours. Could see brief gusts up to around 35-40 mph. Showers are progressing steadily SE as seen on latest NE regional 88D radar imagery. 00Z GFS appears to be in track with frontal timing at this point. Will see more patchy showers move into W CT from the lower Hudson Valley, while the showers further E may pick up a bit as the front approaches the S coast, allowing more moisture to be fed ahead of the front over the next few hours. Appears to be covered pretty well on the latest forecast update. Previous Discussion... Gusty SW winds continue along the southern near shore waters. Gusts up to 32 kt at KEWB, 34 kt at KFMH and 32 kt at KPVC, with a peak wind of 35 kt at KPYM and 31 kt at KCQX. Also noting gusts to around 30 kt across portions of E Mass into RI, so very good low level mixing continues this evening. Ahead of the front, temps running in the 60s to around 70, mildest across E Mass. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Today... A few left over showers will be possible across the far SE New England coast during the first part of Monday morning. Otherwise, expect some strato-cumulus to work into the region in the cool advection pattern but will also see some peeks of sunshine. Temperatures late Monday morning and afternoon will mainly be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, but a bit cooler in the higher terrain. Northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will make it feel chilly compared to our recent mild weather. Tonight... High pressure will build in from the west allowing winds to gradually diminish, except across the southeast New England coast. Cool airmass in place should allow overnight low temps to drop to around 30 to the lower 30s in the normally coolest outlying locations. Some frost/freeze headlines will likely be needed where the growing season is technically still in place. Lastly, it will be milder across the Cape/Nantucket as NNW winds will result in ocean effect cloudiness and holding low temps in the 40s. 850T to seas surface temperature differential around 20C may even yield an isolated shower or two. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
355 AM update... * Highlights... - Warmer than normal this period with highs in the 70s Thu-Sat-Sun - Dry weather through the workweek and likely into the weekend * Synoptic Overview... Several low amplitude northern stream short waves ride the Canadian/US border this period. Given the lack of amplitude each trough is moisture starved. Thus very little if any sensible weather across southern New England this period with each short wave passage just providing a wind shift and a reinforcing surge of dry air. Tuesday night... Not as cool as Mon night as the high moves south of New England with low level WAA commencing as winds become WSW. Seasonably cool with lows 35-40, except in the 40s urban areas, high terrain, Cape & Islands. Dry weather prevails. Wednesday... Real nice day with 1028 mb high south of New England providing low level westerly flow advecting 925 mb temps of +11C across the region. This will support highs 65-70. Mild temps will be accompanied by light WSW winds and model RH cross sections suggesting lots of sunshine. Thursday... Next short wave trough moves across the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario and Quebec. Good low level WAA ahead of this feature with 925 mb temps warming to +14C here in southern New England. These warm temps aloft combined with modest WSW surface winds and mostly sunny conditions will support highs in the low 70s away from the south coast. No precip expected, just a dry frontal passage given the lack of moisture associated with northern stream short wave. It will turn breezy as pres gradient tightens ahead of trough. Model soundings suggest SW winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Friday... Not much thermal change in the post frontal airmass with 925 mb temps only cooling off to about +11C to +12C. High pres over the OH valley provides a well mixed blyr across New England with NW surface winds. This combination along with mostly sunny conditions will support highs 65-70. Another real nice day especially by late Oct standards. Next Weekend... Subtropical ridge builds over the southeast states into the Mid Atlantic region providing dry weather along with unseasonably warm temperatures here with highs well into the 70s especially Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence. Through 12Z... CIGS have been gradually rising across most of the region with some IFR CIGS lingering across the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands at 05Z, with mainly VFR VSBYS. Will see slowly improving CIGS as cold front passes, though sct -SHRA may bring brief MVFR VSBYS. Winds quickly shift to W-NW and may briefly gust up to around 35 kt. Cold front should push to our just off the S coast by around 12Z. Today... Sct -SHRA across S coastal areas move offshore by midday, though a few may linger into early afternoon along the immediate S coast and the islands. Any leftover patchy MVFR VSBYS will improve by midday. SW winds shift to NW as front passes. Gusts around 20 to 25 kt. Tonight... Patchy SCT-BKN VFR clouds linger across Cape Cod, KACK and KMVY early, then should push offshore. N-NW wind gusts up to 20-25 kt along the immediate coast through around midnight, lingering through the night across Cape/Islands. Tuesday... VFR with mostly clear to clear skies. N wind gusts up to around 20 kt across Cape/Islands Tue morning, then diminish. KBOS Terminal...SW wind gusts up to 25 kt through around 09Z, then will shift to W-NW with brief gust up to 30 kt possible as cold front passes. MVFR CIGS through around 09Z-10Z, then improve to VFR. May see some NW wind gusts up to around 20 kt early tonight. KBDL Terminal...N-NW winds around 10-15 kt, may gust up to 20 kt through 09Z. Sct -SHRA push S of the terminal with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS improving to VFR. Expect N-NW wind 10-15 kt into this evening, then slowly diminishing after 04Z tonight. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...high confidence. 355 AM update... VFR, dry runways and good vsbys. WSW winds may approach 25 kt Thu.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence. Through 12Z... SW winds gusting up to 25-30 kt will continue overnight, with brief gale force gusts across the southern near shore waters especially Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound and Nantucket Sound as well as the eastern open waters through around 09Z or so, then diminish. Small crafts continued for all waters. Scattered showers move across the waters ahead and with the cold front. Winds quickly shift to W-NW with the frontal passage mainly across the eastern waters around 09Z-11Z. Local visibility restrictions in showers and patchy fog through daybreak. Today and Tonight... Behind the cold front, NW gusts 20 to 30 kts, especially over the open waters. Strongest winds immediately behind the front and then Tonight with colder air aloft building S over the warm waters. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES may need to be extended. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence. 355 AM update... Overall quiet/tranquil boating weather by mid to late October standards. Only potential issue will be Thu when WSW winds may gusts up to 25 kt near shore ahead of an approaching weak/dry cold front. Otherwise good vsby and dry weather through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ005-006- 009>014-017-018-020-021-026. RI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001-003- 006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/EVT MARINE...Frank/Nocera/EVT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.