Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 050749 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 350 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MILD TO WARM AFTERNOON/S AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSIST.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AT A GIVEN LOCATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST A TRACE TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCALES. DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MARGINAL. PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT PEEKS OF SUN. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON EXPECT SUNSHINE TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN VERY MILD START...HIGH TEMPS IN MOST LOCALES SHOULD CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 70S. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SPOT LOCATION OR TWO HITS 80. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW COOLING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. IN THESE LOCATIONS...MILD LATE MORNING TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...INCLUDING BOSTON. JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...TO LOWER 50S. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WED MORNING. NOT SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME. REGARDLESS...EVEN IF A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR THEY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS NORTH OF THE PIKE WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST DO NOT REACH 70 ON WEDNESDAY...IF CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER THEN EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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348 PM UPDATE... HIGHLIGHTS... * SPRING TO SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WED THRU SAT WITH INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS SUN/MON SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL/GUIDANCE EVALUATION... 00Z ECENS/EPS AND 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD WHICH FEATURES AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OF ABOUT -3 STD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO...ALONG WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WED THRU FRI. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WITH THE CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALLOWING GREAT LAKES RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THEN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THE RIDGE ERODE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. IN ADDITION...RIDGE BECOMES SOMEWHAT OF A DIRTY RIDGE WITH MOISTURE FROM REMNANT CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ADVECTING NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HANDLE THIS DIFFERENTLY ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW ON SHOWER POTENTIAL LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES... AS SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU...SURFACE WINDS BECOME WSW AND THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING TO 75 TO 80 AND POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO U70S AND L80S BY FRI. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. IN ADDITION WITH SSW SURFACE WINDS DEW PTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S. STILL COMFORTABLE BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN NIGHTLY TEMPS NOT AS COOL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. SUNDAY...TRICKY AS POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT IMPACTS EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY RI. NOT AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN LIKELY CLOUD COVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISK OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL. PRECIPITATION... AS MENTIONED ABOVE DRY PATTERN PREVAILS WED THRU FRI AND PROBABLY INTO SAT. RISK OF SHOWERS INCREASES SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE OFFSHORE FROM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LLWS AROUND 2 THOUSAND FEET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. VERY BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN CT AND POSSIBLY A PART OF RI/SOUTHEAST MA FOR A TIME WED AM. THIS MAY RESULT IN VERY BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IF ANY OCCUR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID TO LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER- WATERS BEFORE DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THURSDAY...HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW. TRANQUIL/DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VSBY CONTINUES. FRIDAY...HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUN/MON. WHILE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250- 254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA FIRE WEATHER...FRANK

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