Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 030754 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 354 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND AND THURSDAY. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR MORE RAINFALL RETURNS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE UNTIL THE LATE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WITH A RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE CLEARING MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK INTO VERMONT. THE TREND OF THIS CLEARING WOULD BRING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA. THE UPPER FLOW IS SPLIT. THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS ACROSS ONTARIO-NEW YORK-NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM PUSHES NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CONFLUENT ZONE FOR THESE TWO FLOWS IS ACROSS CENTRAL PA-NJ AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS REASONABLE CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHERN CLOUDS COULD MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN DEPICTED AND KEEP CLOUDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND SOUTH COAST. BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS THESE CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON...MIXING SHOULD REACH TO AT LEAST 900 MB AND POSSIBLY 850 MB. TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THESE LAYERS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING AN EAST FLOW INTO THE REGION. ALONG THE EAST MASS COAST THIS WILL BRING CHILLED MARINE AIR ONSHORE...SO MAX TEMPS THERE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOUTH COASTAL AREAS...WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS...MAY STAY AROUND 50. THURSDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE GENERATES A COASTAL LOW. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SPREAD CLOUDS UP THE COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...BUT EVEN THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SKY COVER. THE OVERALL WEATHER HERE WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUING EAST FLOW. THIS AGAIN WILL SUPPORT WARMEST TEMPS IN THE CT VALLEY AND COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE MASS EAST COAST. EXPECT A RANGE OF 60-65 ALONG THE COAST AND 70-75 INTERIOR WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * A A SPOT SHOWER FRI-SAT * DRY AND SEASONABLE SUN THEN THREAT OF SHOWERS RETURNS MON AND TUE OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... CONTINUATION OF MODEL STRUGGLES WITH THE 03.00Z RUNS. THE LIKELY ISSUE IS THE RATHER AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM...WHICH FEATURES A CENTRAL CONUS BLOCK WITH OMEGA CHARACTERISTICS. SO THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES...DO A COUPLE OF NRN STREAM WAVES PHASE WITH THE TROF ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC /THE E SIDE OF THE BLOCK/ AND TO WHAT EXTENT. THE FIRST SHOT IS FRI INTO SAT. EXACTLY HOW DEEP WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE WHETHER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC WAVE NEAR THE SFC...DEEPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASED MOISTURE STREAM. MODELS ARE BACK AND FORTH ON THIS...BUT THE ECENS MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGEST VORTEX OF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT. WHILE THIS MAY ALSO INCREASES CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AT ODDS IS A REMNANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FOR BOTH DAYS. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE NRN STREAM BECOMES DOMINANT AS THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND EJECTS WEAK RIDGING INTO THE NRN STREAM...YIELDING HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT...ONCE AGAIN STREAM PHASING WITH A MORE ROBUST /AND COLDER/ NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW ACTIVE THE PATTERN IS THROUGH THE MID POINT OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING POPS...BUT EXACT DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. DETAILS... THU NIGHT INTO FRI... INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES BY FRI /ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL/. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK BAROCLINIC WAVE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE S. ECMWF OPERATIONAL CURRENTLY THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF. WITH THE ECENS KEEPING MORE OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS BUT LIKELY LOWER THEM SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOWERY IN NATURE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... AS THE UPPER LVL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND INVERTED RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTION UPSTREAM...OR DEVELOP WEAKLY IN SITU. ONCE AGAIN...GOING WITH THE LOWER END OF POPS HERE AS IT/S LIKELY SOME AREAS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY. SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON... THE REMNANTS OF A CENTRAL CONUS BLOCK WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION WITH 1020+ HPA SFC HIGH PRES IN TOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX. TEMPS AT OR NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. LATE MON INTO MID WEEK... ONCE AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS HERE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FINAL STRENGTH OF A DEEPENING WAVE ALOFT. SOME ACTUALLY SHOW THIS WAVE CUTTING OFF COMPLETELY /A VERY SLOW SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF/ WHILE OTHERS ARE SLOW...BUT A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...NOTING INCREASED RISK FOR PERIODIC -SHRA AND POSSIBLY EVEN T-STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE DEEPER WAVE IS ALSO ABLE TO HARNESS MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN IS AVAILABLE FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. PWATS MAY APPROACH 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN RI AND EASTERN MASS BUT THESE WILL TREND OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL TREND NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS LATE. THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL BUT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CLEARING THIS MORNING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI NIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY LOWER CATEGORIES. A BRIEF SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT MOST RUNWAYS REMAIN DRY. LATE SAT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS NNE...WITH E SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE E COAST.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM CANADA. NORTH WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST BUT ARE GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING. SEAS START THE DAY NEAR 5 FEET ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF OUR WATERS...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE EAST OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THESE WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS. WINDS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THURSDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. DRY WEATHER WITH GOOD VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THU NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAINFALL/FOG OCCASIONALLY MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHERLY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3-4FT POSSIBLE. LATE DAY SAT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES ON THE E COASTAL WATERS. ON THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...NNE FLOW MAY AT TIMES APPROACH 20-25 KT. A BUILDING SWELL OUT OF THE S...FROM A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY REACH 5-6 FT AT TIMES. THEREFORE...MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
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&& .CLIMATE... TUESDAY/S MAX TEMPERATURES WERE COLD AGAIN. A RECORD REPORT WAS SENT FOR BOSTON. MAX TEMPS AND RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR JUNE 2ND... BOS...49...OLD RECORD WAS 50 IN 1946. SECOND DAY IN A ROW. ORH...48...ONGOING RECORD IS 47 IN 1946. PVD...51...ONGOING RECORD IS 47 IN 1907. BDL...55...ONGOING RECORD IS 50 IN 1907. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/RLG MARINE...WTB/DOODY CLIMATE...WTB

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