Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 011106 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 706 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO TUE. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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700 AM UPDATE... SHOWERS ACROSS BERKSHIRES CO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS MORNING... LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ST LWRNC RVR VALLEY IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER NORTHERN STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO VT AND NH. THIS WILL BE THE THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY. LARGE TEMP SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS OBSERVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U50S. MEANWHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE CT RVR VLY HAVE TEMPS IN THE 60S. THIS AFTERNOON... TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS THRU NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THIS RESULTS IN COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH H5 TEMPS GOING FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT -12C BY DAYS END. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS DEW PTS HERE WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 60S DUE TO SW WIND. THIS GREATER INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A LOW RISK OF ONE OR TWO STRONGER T-STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND INVERTED / SOUNDING SIGNATURE SUGGEST ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. OVERALL MOST IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE AND SHOULD BE SHORT IN DURATION. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS. BEACH FORECAST... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK UP THE SURF TO 3 TO 4 FT ON SOUTH FACING OCEAN BEACHES. THIS MAY SUPPORT MODERATE RIPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH COAST AND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN COOLING BLYR. THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER 2ND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL WITH MINS IN THE 60S /U50S NORTHWEST MA/ AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SUNDAY... NICE DAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THE 80S BUT TOLERABLE HUMIDITY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY * PATTERN CHANGE BY MID WEEK BRINGING BELOW AVG TEMPS OVERVIEW... 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN DESCENT AGREEMENT UNTIL THE MID WEEK WHERE MODELS DIVERGE. APPEARS GUIDANCE IS HAVING AN ISSUE HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AS WELL AS POTENT NORTHWEST LOW AND HOW IT WILL RESPOND DOWNSTREAM. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC IS MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EXTENDED. LATEST GEFS APPEAR TO SIDE TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE EPS. BECAUSE OF THE DISCREPANCIES TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLES. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATTERN CHANGE BY MID- WEEK AS LOW MOVES EASTWARD DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS FOR NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL FRONTS WILL KEEP REINFORCING THE COOLER AIRMASS FOR SNE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DAILIES... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT AS THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/EC. EC IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND HARDLY HAS ANY QPF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THEREFOR HAVE A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SETTLED...HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE REGION LATE MONDAY...COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AS THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. DESCENT INSTABILITY VALUES AMONGST GUIDANCE...WITH 1000-2000 J/KG AND STEEPEN MID-LAPSE RATES. A DUEL JET APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LIFT. SO WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME BEING STRONG LATE MONDAY. BEST REGION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MASS AND CT AS SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONGEST IN THAT REGION...30-40 KTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT...IF EVERYTHING LINES UP COULD BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. APPEARS THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY...HIGH THETA-E AND K VALUES OVER 32C TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS SET-UP COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. IT WONT BE TIL LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN COOLER TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DROPPING TEMPS AND HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID AS WELL. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO 90S IN THE NEAR FUTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. ADDITIONALLY POTENT SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW. THE LOWS PLACEMENT HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE EC OVER THE CAROLINAS. BECAUSE OF THE SPREAD AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES KEPT SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THURS-FRI. BUT THIS CAN CHANGE AS IT IS 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY...VFR BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUB-SEVERE. TONIGHT...VFR WITH ANY LINGERING EVENING T-STORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. SUNDAY...VFR/DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOGAN/S AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REFLECT IN TAF AT THIS TIME. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TODAY...SSW WIND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LONG FETCH WILL LIKELY INCREASE SEAS TO 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. THUS SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT AND ALSO INCLUDED RI SOUND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SSW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EASE AND BECOME WEST LATE. THUS SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. SUNDAY...LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMES SW IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY AND TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER SUNDAY. OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY REQUIRING SCA. WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY. COULD STILL NEED SCA FOR THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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