Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 221748 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 148 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Jose southeast of Nantucket will slowly drift back to the southwest the next few days. This will maintain strong winds, rain and rough seas today, which then diminish. Clearing skies will move in from the west tonight and Saturday. Warmer weather arrives Sunday and Monday, before a backdoor front brings cooler weather and possibly a few showers by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
145 pm update... Jose continues to gradually weaken as it very slowly meanders west about 120 miles southeast of Nantucket. It is still quite windy along the southeast New England coast and isolated tree damage reports continue. However, winds have diminished a bit over the past two hours and this trend should continue into the early evening. Bands of showers some containing brief locally heavy rain will continue to impact southeast MA through the remainder of the afternoon from Jose`s circulation. Areas of lighter showers and drizzle will also impact northeast MA and RI. Temperatures across parts of southeast MA may struggle to break 60. Meanwhile, despite considerable cloudiness in western MA and northern CT there will be periods of partial sunshine. Temperatures will top out in the middle 70s in the lower CT River Valley, with perhaps even a few upper 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Jose continues to weaken while not moving out of the vicinity. So we expect north-northeast winds tonight and Saturday but with speeds diminishing to 5-15 mph inland and 15-30 mph on the Islands. Clouds linger over Eastern Mass and especially SE Mass until midday Saturday, but with a west to east clearing trend farther west. Lingering chance pops in RI and Eastern Mass tonight, but the chance dissipates Saturday morning as Jose further weakens. Dew points 55 to 60 will allow min temps similar to that where the winds diminish inland, a little milder along the coast due to clouds and wind. Temps aloft around 15-16C will support max temps Saturday in the mid 80s. Southeast of the I-95 corridor the clouds and ocean influence should hold max temps in the upper 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights... * Return to summer warmth Sun/Mon * Showers possible by mid week * Watching Maria but latest NHC track keeps it offshore Jose continues its slow dissipation through early next week, keeping high surf and elevated risk of rip currents on south coastal beaches. Concern is for an increase in beach-goers this weekend, as building upper ridge brings return to warmer conditions. Keep in mind many area beaches are no longer staffed with lifeguards this late in September! 850 mb temperatures warm significantly, to nearly 20C Sun/Mon, which translates to highs well into 80s across interior. It`s even possible we see a 90-degree reading in CT Valley Mon (BDL). It`s also not out of question parts of CT Valley experience late-season heat wave, though highs should fall just short of 90 both Sun and Tue. Warmth won`t last too long as backdoor front should drop south across region Tue and Wed, bringing somewhat cooler (seasonable) E/NE flow as well as scattered showers. Later next week, we still need to monitor track of Maria. Latest forecast is for it to pass offshore, but close enough to bring another round of high surf with renewed threat of rip currents and beach erosion. It`s still much to early to confidently say that will happen, since we need to assess interaction with approaching Great Lakes trough/surface cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday/... This afternoon and tonight...Moderate to high confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions will continue this afternoon into tonight across eastern MA and RI. There will be also be bands of showers and they will persist well into the overnight hours across southeast MA. NE wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots along the southeast New England coast will gradually diminish some through the night. Meanwhile, broken VFR to marginal MVFR cigs will continue across western MA and CT are expected through tonight. Saturday...High confidence in trends but low confidence in timing. Marginal MVFR cigs across the interior should improve to VFR to the northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor by mid afternoon. MVFR-IFR Cigs in low clouds and fog patches southeast of the Boston to Providence line will be slower to improve, but should scour out towards 00z except for the Cape and Islands. KBOS TAF...Moderate to high confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions in periods of showers and drizzle persist tonight. KBDL TAF...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. Broken ceilings will mainly be VFR but some periods of MVFR are possible. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... High confidence. Sun and Mon... VFR. Light winds with sea breezes possible. Tue... MVFR possible in scattered showers, especially eastern MA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today... Jose continues to very slowly drift west, but well south of the waters. Still expect winds from the north-northeast, gusting 35 to 45 knots on the southern waters and 30 to 35 knots in the east. Seas will remain rough at 10-15 feet over the open ocean waters. Showers continue, especially over the southern and southeast waters. Tonight and Saturday... Gusty north winds will diminish tonight and Saturday. Winds above 25 knots will linger on the southern and southeast waters Saturday. Seas will also diminish through the period, but with 5 foot seas lingering on the outer waters Saturday. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Moderate confidence. Light winds expected Sun with local sea breezes as high pressure remains over waters. Backdoor cold front is expected to drop S across waters Mon into Tue with light E/NE winds and scattered showers. Seas will gradually subside Sun and should finally drop below 5 ft on outer waters. Lingering swells from Jose, combined with increasing swells from Maria may lead to seas building over 5 ft again on waters S and E of Nantucket by Mon or Tue. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoon`s high tide on Nantucket with expected 1 ft storm surge. Along Plymouth County coast, based on latest data we opted to issue a coastal flood advisory for pockets of minor coastal flooding at the mid afternoon high tide cycle. This a result of very high seas just offshore and strong north to northeast winds coupled with bands of heavy rain that may be a factor. High surf will continue into at least Saturday along the east side of Cape Cod and Nantucket with lingering beach erosion. Some beach erosion may also persist along south facing ocean exposures. Swells from Maria may re-increase the surf and associated rip current risk across our ocean exposed south coast sometime during the first half of next week, even though Maria may eventually recurve out to sea before getting too close to New England. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None. MA...Tropical Storm Warning for MAZ022>024. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ007-019-020. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ019. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ018>021. RI...Tropical Storm Warning for RIZ008. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for RIZ006-007. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for RIZ005>007. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ230-236- 251.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...Frank/WTB/JWD MARINE...Frank/WTB/JWD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.