Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 012337 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 737 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM...HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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730 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...AND SPEED UP THE DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO BRING THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES. THEN ANOTHER NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE WARM...HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST SUMMERY WEATHER WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE LIFTED INDICES...K INDICES...AND CAPE. AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING. TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 01/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GOOD CONTINUITY. MAIN FEATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA...WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE USA/CANADIAN BORDER. SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ARISE TOWARD THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF A MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM HUDSON BAY. CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OVER SOME OF THE MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES. DAILY DETAILS... WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW. HOWEVER...WITH THE GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AND 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILD ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...SO EXPECTING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEW POINTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...ON THURSDAY. BUT LOOK TO START RISING BACK INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE OVER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODEL RUNS TENDING TO DIVERGE ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...SO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. AT THIS POINT... THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING SATURDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER ONCE MORE. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. TONIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS DISSIPATE. VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY AGAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING SHRA/TSRA TO END AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. SEABREEZE ENDS NO LATER THAN 02/0030Z. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOCAL MVFR- IFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SW NH AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/. ON THU NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE INCREASED WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS...WHICH MAY APPROACH 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. && .EQUIPMENT...
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THE BOURNE/HYANNIS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...KEC-73... BROADCASTING ON 162.550 MHZ...IS TEMPORARILY NOT BROADCASTING. THE TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED ON PRESENTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG EQUIPMENT...BELK

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