Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 190749 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 249 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM MOVING OUT OF TEXAS FOR THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO SNE THEN TO THE EAST. RESULT WILL BE SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB WHERE TEMPS -7/-8C. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S BERKSHIRES/MONADNOCKS TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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TONIGHT... CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GT LAKES WITH DECENT SHOT OF 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN SNE AIDED BY 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATE A RAPID INCREASE IN KI/TT VALUES TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO THE REGION SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS GREATEST AS SW FLOW WILL BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH ANY ACCUM A COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH. WE HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS RI/SE MA WITH LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. PTYPE LIKELY TRENDING MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS DUE TO INCREASING SW WINDS OFF THE STILL MILD SST. EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS IN THE 30S NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FURTHER INLAND. BECOMING WINDY NEAR THE COAST WITH SW GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS GOOD MIXING IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS OVER MILDER WATER. THURSDAY... ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY MORNING WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS DECENT MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING THROUGH THE GT LAKES AND EXPECT MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 40S COASTAL PLAIN...BUT MID/UPPER 30S DISTANT INTERIOR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25-35 MPH EXPECTED...STRONGEST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * STILL ANOMALOUS COLD THROUGH SATURDAY * SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION WED NIGHT/THURS * WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH END OF PERIOD * MAINLY RAIN LIKELY MONDAY OVERVIEW... THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR COLD WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS WELL. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES PUSHES EAST AS A LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS PUSHES THE TROUGH EAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO SEA. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE COMES IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPS WHICH LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE COMBINES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PUSHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF AN INSIDE RUNNER THAN A COASTAL STORM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN FOR THAT STORM. DAILIES... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...COLD AIR SPILLS IN AIDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WINDS. BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 40S ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SUNDAY...IN THE EARLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE AREA WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY BY AT LEAST 10 AND MAYBE EVEN 15 DEGREES. THICKER CLOUDS THEN MOVE IN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION STARTS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY START AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY ON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THEN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BACK WEST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...THE LOW PRESSURE TAKES A MORE INSIDE-RUNNER-LIKE TRACK. PHASED UPPER LEVEL JETS OCCUR ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA. PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2 WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE SEEN TO THE TUNE OF 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL INDICATING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S. TUESDAY...A DRY SLOT IS ABLE TO COME IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE REGION ALOFT. THIS SHUTS OFF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 12Z. TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CIGS 6-10K FT DEVELOPING...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS RI AND SE MA WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS. INCREASING SW FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY...VFR. CIGS AROUND 5-6K FT NEAR THE COAST EARLY. W/SW GUSTS TO 20-30 KT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW GUSTS POSSIBLE 20 TO 25 KTS ON FRI. LIGHTER WINDS SAT. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS AGAIN. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY...NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE...THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...FALLING BELOW 25 KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GALES WILL BE REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING ANOTHER PULSE OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE WATERS. DESPITE SW FLOW...COLD BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WARMER OCEAN WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA WIND GUSTS AND MAY SEE MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. THURSDAY...GUSTY W/SW WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY WINDS GUST UP TO GALE FORCE DURING THIS TIME. 6 TO 10 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND SEAS ALSO BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO JUST ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...25 KTS...OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS TODAY... BOSTON 30/1897 PROVIDENCE33/1936 HARTFORD33/1955 WORCESTER29/2008 BLUE HILL27/1897
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 251-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY CLIMATE...

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