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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 151352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LATE TOMORROW...ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS FROM
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT NOT A WASHOUT...THEN MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 AM UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
NEAREST CLOUDS IN WESTERN NY AND PA. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TODAY
WITH HIGH PRES. HAVE RAISED TEMPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. NEWEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SO ADJUSTED
TEMPS FOR THE DAY TOWARD ITS THINKING. OTHERWISE...A PLEASANT DAY
WITH DRY WX. ALONG THE EAST COAST...SEA BREEZES MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGH TEMPS FROM BREAKING FULLY INTO THE 80S AS
IS EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND.

ONE POINT OF NOTE FOR THE DAY TODAY...A WEAKENING S TO SE SWELL
MAY KEEP A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY WITH DIMINISH WIND DRIVEN SEAS AND SWELL...WILL STILL
NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS OF RIP CURRENT RISKS TODAY PARTICULARLY AT
EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LVL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SFC HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE REGION
GIVEN WAY TO WEAK SFC FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THEREFORE...WITH SOME DECOUPLING EXPECTED...DESPITE WARMING MID
LVL TEMPS...MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI NIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING
INTO THE 40S IN NW MA AND SW NH...TO IN THE UPPER 50S TOWARD SE MA
AND RI/CT. THE DRY WX CONTINUES.

SUN...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THIS WAVE...LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES APPARENT ESPECIALLY IN THE FASTER GFS.
THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE
PER LATEST ECMWF/NAM. THIS BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
AFTER 18Z IN THE W GIVEN WEAK LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE TOP OF THE COLUMN TOWARD THE SURFACE THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FROM THE EXITING HIGH. THE NON-GFS SOLUTION ALSO DOES
NOT ALLOW SRN NEW ENGLAND TO BREAK FULLY INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH KEEPS MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE LATE DAY
CAPE ON THE LOW END. THEREFORE...ONLY SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDER
RISK FOR THE LATE DAY TIMEFRAME.

WHAT THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO...IS AFTER A PARTLY CLOUDY
START...EXPECT BKN TO OVC SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME PRECIP
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A
WASHOUT HOWEVER...EXCEPT FOR IN ANY POTENTIAL T-STORMS...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR. H85 TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO
SAT...HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THROUGH THE DAY...KEPT
HIGH TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUE BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
AT TIMES.  THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF THESE
IMPULSES AND ASSOCD PRECIP IN FAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW.  MODELS
DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH GFS LIKELY DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES AS IT SPINS UP A CYCLONE FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH EVOLVES INTO STRONG COASTAL LOW FOR MID WEEK PERIOD. WE
DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION AND LEANED TOWARD MORE STABLE ECMWF WHICH
SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK.

SUN NIGHT...
THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR N ACROSS NEW ENG AND
FOLLOWED THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE
S COAST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUSION WHICH WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF SHOWERS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS NAM IS QUICKER MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH IN THE EVENING
WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWER.

MONDAY...
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT MODELS GENERATING MODEST
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION.  MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ARE
LIMITING FACTORS SO WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS. A
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 2M TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...BUT COOLER 70S S COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
FOLLOWED ECMWF WHICH SHOWS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE
N WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION TUE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINAL SO NOT LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND IN FACT
ECMWF NOT INDICATING MUCH IF ANY QPF.  WE CONTINUED WITH CHC POPS.

WED THROUGH FRI...
LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI.
DISCOUNTED GFS FORECAST OF STRONG COASTAL LOW TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
WED AS THIS IS LIKELY A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE FROM
EARLIER COMPLEX IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN.

PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE CT VALLEY WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE
VFR. WNW WINDS TODAY SAVE FOR EAST COASTAL SEA BREEZES. STRONGER
SW FLOW ON SUN. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY
PRONE AIRPORTS TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY
SLACKEN ENOUGH AROUND MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY AND AS
SUCH...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS
SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY MID MORNING. AFTERWARD...GENERALLY
QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WNW WINDS ONLY 10-15 KT EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS BASED WNAWAVE SOMEWHAT WHICH BRINGS SEAS
UP LIKELY TOO RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY
GRADUAL RISING SEAS THANKS TO SW RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING 5+ FT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A LATE DAY SMALL CRAFT FOR THIS THREAT.

HOWEVER...AM NOTING INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY SURROUNDING CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS WHICH MAY REACH 25 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS SURROUND THE CAPE/ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL JET MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SCA WIND GUSTS SUN EVENING...BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH LATER
SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH WED.  WE UNDERCUT
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE SUN NIGH DUE TO STRONG INVERSION...BUT SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  WNAWAVE GUIDANCE LIKELY WAY OVERDONE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS GFS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH FORECAST OF
STRONG SFC LOW. AREAS OF FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES SUN NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS THE AREA...SEE BELOW
FOR A LISTING OF THESE.

HOWEVER...AM NOTING THAT SEVERAL...SAVE FOR FOR TYPICALLY SLOW
RESPONDING RIVERS HAVE ALREADY CRESTED. SOME ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FLOOD STAGE TODAY...WHILE OTHERS MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO
LONGER. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS RAIN WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS WERE...AND WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. AN ISOLATED T-STORM COULD PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
THIS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LOWER BY MON MORNING.

RIVER FORECAST POINTS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUED AS OF 430 AM...

IN CT...
FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM

IN RI...
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON /FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD/
/AREAL FLOOD WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER PAWCATUCK RIVER
NEAR WESTERLY/

IN MA...
ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD
CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...