Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270230 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 930 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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930 PM UPDATE... DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVERNIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY BUT NOT EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERED THE REGION THIS EVENING. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BASED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME. GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...JUST A ONE OR TWO HOUR WINDOW WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MEANWHILE...AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT AS WELL AS THE URBAN CENTERS WILL SEE LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... * QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY * COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY * ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THEN IT MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY. WITH THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST... EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE SYSTEM IS. ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z. AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY WEATHER. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED... BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWD/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...RLG/JWD MARINE...RLG/JWD

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