Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270837 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 337 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES UNCERTAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 335 AM UPDATE... SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S...BUT RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE THEN SOME OF OUR RECENT COLD WAVES. A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND FORCING IS EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN OF CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUNSHINE AT TIMES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE DEEP SNOW PACK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE. SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE TOLERABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE. NONETHELESS...THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... * HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY * COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY * ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THEN IT MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY. WITH THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST... EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE SYSTEM IS. ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/... TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY WEATHER. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS IS FOR 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AS A RESULT OF LEFT OVER EASTERLY SWELL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/RLG

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