Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 282002 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 402 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SUMMERLIKE WARMTH WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW AS A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW...DROPPING TEMPS AND BRING A FEW SHOWERS. A COOLER NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK ALONG WITH NIGHTTIME PATCHY DRIZZLE. A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...BUT MAY CLIP SOUTH COASTAL AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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4 PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BOTH PVD AND BDL HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORDS AND LOGAN WARMED UP TO 87F. DEFINITELY A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OUT THERE TODAY. TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS WINDS WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. METRO REGIONS OF BOS AND PVD WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESP IN VALLEY REGIONS. THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL BE LARGER THAN THE PREV NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... TRICKY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FIRST THING TO WATCH IS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z MONDAY AND PUSH TO THE SOUTH SHORE BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL WARM IN THE MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON WILL DROP ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK REGION AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NE AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW AS THERE IS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LIFT. CONTINUE TO THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL WHERE THE NAM HAS NO QPF FOR MON NIGHT AND THE EC IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE REGION. DID AN OVERALL BLEND IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL WARMER AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HEADLINES... * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY * UNCERTAIN FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY * LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP MIDWEEK OFF SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH SHOULD TRACK S OF THE REGION OVERVIEW... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH H5 TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH ALLOWS A BROAD SURFACE REFLECTION TO BEING FORMING OVER THE SE STATES THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST. MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY...AS THE WESTERN TROUGH TRIES TO OPEN UP AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWLY SHIFT E OVER TIME. MEANWHILE...THE WEAKER EASTERN TROUGH TRIES TO SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINAS BY MID WEEK. NOTING SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND GGEM...THOUGH THE 00Z EC APPEARS A BIT BETTER. ONE THING THAT APPEARS TO BE WELL AGREED UPON...LARGE SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS SE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS QUEBEC DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH RIDGING BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. THE BIG PROBLEM WILL BE THE PERSISTENT NE WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE N AND GENERAL LOW PRES/TROUGHING TO THE S. THIS WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS IN PLACE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AT LEAST AROUND MID WEEK. BY LATE THIS WEEK...THE WESTERN TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG AGAIN AS IT WORKS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF POSSIBLE H5 CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID ATLC OR NEW ENGLAND COAST. SO...WHILE ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE...MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH DUE TO WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. DETAILS... MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SETTLES S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASING NE WIND FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E COAST OF MASS. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A TIME ALONG THE E COAST OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM BOSTON UP TO CAPE ANN. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AS A PIECE OF AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO BRING SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT NE WIND IN PLACE...BRINGING COOL TEMPS AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS AT LEAST TO MID WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUE AND WED...THOUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL. CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT BETTER DURING THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD S OUT OF QUEBEC...THOUGH NE WINDS CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THU AS THE SE U.S. LOW MAY TRY TO PUSH OFFSHORE WELL S AND E OF NANTUCKET. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERSISTENT NE WINDS CONTINUE...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W LATE FRI OR SAT...BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT. BEFORE 00Z...VFR TODAY. AFTER 00Z...PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT ANY IFR/LIFR WILL BE LOCALIZED...LESS SO THAN THIS MORNING. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...A COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS REGION SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE N/NE. VFR CIGS AHEAD OF FRONT BUT EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND IT...CLOSER TO 00Z. MAY ALSO BE ISOLD SHOWER. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DROP CIGS TO MVFR. DRIZZLE AND ISO SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NE WINDS WILL ALSO GUST BETWEEN 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. WEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR... THOUGH COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS REGION WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT PUSHES S ACROSS WATERS TOMORROW...FIRST NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER IN MORNING AND PROBABLY NOT REACHING S COAST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS GIVE WAY TO WIND SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND FRONT...AND MAY REACH 25 KT LATE IN DAY FROM BOSTON TO MERRIMACK RIVER AS SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FT. SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT NE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. LONG NE GROUND SWELLS WILL BUILD UP DURING THE WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. THE SWELLS MAY BUILD UP TO 7- 12 FT BY THURSDAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS IN SCT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 9/28 BOSTON.......... 90 IN 1881 AND PREVIOUS YEARS PROVIDENCE...... 84 IN 1943 - REACHED 85 TODAY* WORCESTER....... 84 IN 1916 WINDSOR LOCKS... 83 IN 1959 - REACHED 84 TODAY* * OFFICIAL RECORDS WILL BE SENT OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT CLIMATE
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT NEAR TERM...DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT CLIMATE...STAFF

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