Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 282002 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 402 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... *** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING *** WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z. MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TOMORROW... WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S. MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST. TOMORROW NIGHT... ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE... ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS... WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/... THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE 25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-02Z ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/DOODY MARINE...BELK/DOODY

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