Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291401 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT... DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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10 AM UPDATE... AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT LATE MORNING. THIS A RESULT OF A LOT OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN INVERSION. STRONG LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WAS BEGINNING TO POKE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO BY NO MEANS A SUNNY DAY. ENOUGH PEEKS OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR TO PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...SO MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. BEACH FORECAST... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOW 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL * DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY * RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/ CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT... /SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD... YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER... TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL BLEND. THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS. ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 10 AM UPDATE... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY MVFR AS OF LATE MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN RADIATIONAL FOG. TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE COLD FRONT EXITS. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KBOX WSR-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN EQUIPMENT...STAFF

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