Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 151708 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 108 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS...THEN CLEARING. MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1 PM UPDATE... A COOL AND CRISP SUMMER DAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN PANCAKE CUMULUS COVER THE SKY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DRY-SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT AND DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW- TO MID-60S PRESENTLY...JUST A FEW DEGREES SHY OF REACHING THEIR FORECASTED HIGHS...WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT / VARIABLE ALLOWING SEA-BREEZES TO COME ASHORE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A QUIET DAY INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS WISP INTO W NEW ENGLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. TUESDAY... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL END AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN HAS AS MUCH AS 0.4 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGHS AGAIN MAINLY 65 TO 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED THROUGH SAT * FROST POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S * SHORT LIVED MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY. OVERVIEW... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL...MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF WARM-UP SUN/MON HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE SHORT- LIVED AND THE TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF BY NEXT WEEK. SINCE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...USED A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST. DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RADIATE OUT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS BARELY REACHING 70 IN SPOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY REINFORCING THE DRY...COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A SPOT SHOWER WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA...WHERE FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND WARMER MID LEVEL AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MID 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM FORECAST /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY...VRB WINDS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. SCT-BKN 4-5 KFT DECKS LINGERING INTO EVENING. TONIGHT...SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR W-TERMINALS DISSIPATING AS THEY SPREAD E. WILL HOLD WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS WITH ONLY PERHAPS MVFR FOR S-COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS TURING S. TUESDAY...SHRA DISSIPATING AS SW-WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE W-NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW-END VFR CIGS OVERALL WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE S-COAST DURING THE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING VRB. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE W-INTERIOR TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY THE CT-VALLEY FROM KBAF NORTHWARD. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE ONSHORE WILL LEND TO E-FLOW INTO EVENING...TURNING SE LATE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A TOUCH OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT LATE TUE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE NW AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS AS WELL WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE AND WILL REACH AT OR ABOVE 5FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THU. MARGINAL SCA SEAS AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THU INTO FRI ACROSS SOME OF THE OUTER-WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF

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