Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 262356 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON. ANOTHER STORM IS LIKELY TUE INTO WED...WITH PRECIP TYPES UNCERTAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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7 PM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY. 450 PM UPDATE... * QUESTION ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS TONIGHT FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR PLYMOUTH COUNTY COASTLINE FROM ONSHORE FLOW. MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS REST OF E MA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. SOME QUESTION TONIGHT AS TO WHETHER THIS DRYING PERSISTS AND RESULTS IN CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT REGION...OR IF ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO BRING BACK SOME CLOUDINESS. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE HUGE EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS READINGS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR OR REMAIN IN TEENS SHOULD CLOUDS HANG ON. RECENT SATELLITE SUGGESTS WE WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS HEADING THIS WAY FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION... SO WE WILL SIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOWS IN TEENS AND 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... * QUIET BUT CONTINUED COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN 20S PER MODEL CONSENSUS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT. EXPECT MANY SUBZERO READINGS ACROSS INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TEENS CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY * COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY * ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY...PTYPE LESS CERTAIN MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT WEEK THEY DIVERGE A BIT...PARTICULARLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THEN IT MOVES OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY. WITH THIS RUN THERE MODELS HAVE A DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST... EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON HOW WARM OR COLD THE SYSTEM IS. ONE DAY THE ECMWF IS WARM AND THE GFS IS COLD AND THE NEXT THE GFS IS WARM AND THE ECMWF IS COLD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME ON BOARD WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC. IF THIS WARMER SOLUTION VERIFIES...EXPECT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS VFR...EXCEPT CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 04Z. AREAS MVFR CIGS NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FRI...OTHERWISE VFR. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN WINTRY WEATHER.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DROPPED SCA FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED... BUT WILL EXTEND SCA INTO FRI NIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. LOW PRESSURE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BRING END TO LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING ON WATERS E OF CAPE COD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN W/NW FLOW BUT BELOW SCA. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW/RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...RLG/JWD MARINE...RLG/JWD

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