Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 270556 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 156 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY THEN RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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2 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NORTHERN NY STATE. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...JUST PERIODS OF CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY PICK UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES MUCH OF THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS LAST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CU THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE YIELDING TO PARTY CLOUD SKY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LLJ OF 30 KTS AT 850 MB WILL STILL BE ALOFT KEEPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE UP. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE. IN FACT GUSTS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO 20KTS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AS STRONG CAA MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY LOW. THIS WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND THE LOW TO MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE A BREEZE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WEAK WAA WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE. TEMPS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY THANKS TO FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF DOWNTOWN PROVIDENCE/BOSTON. ONLY CAVEAT IS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE NORTH AND WEST ZONES IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD AFTERNOON/S TUE AND WED * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING BUT NOT A WASHOUT * MAINLY DRY AND COOL THU AND FRI * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND * STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACT ON SNE BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY OVERVIEW... EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT MILD WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...THEN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL DELIVER A COLD FROPA WED/WED EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA THEN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NE NEXT WEEKEND AS BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE SENDS DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY SE INTO THE GT LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACT ON SNE AS HEAVIER PRECIP WOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY SO THERE IS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. WHAT WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. DAILIES... TUESDAY... WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT BEST MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE NORTH SO DRY CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE SW SO EXPECT PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS. MAXES WELL INTO LOW AND MID 60S. A MILD NIGHT EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS SW FLOW AND RISING DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A FRONT HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ANOTHER MILD DAY ON WED DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS IT WILL BE STARTING OUT QUITE MILD. TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A LOW PROB OF 70 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SNE DURING THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGHER KI AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. ECMWF EVEN SHOWS UP TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SE MA SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION. GFS IS PROGRESSIVE AND DRIES IT OUT WED NIGHT BUT ECMWF IS SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND HAS SHOWERS LINGERING WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WE WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE EAST WED EVENING WITH IMPROVING WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER WITH MAXES IN THE 50S THU WITH FURTHER COOLING LIKELY ON FRI. EXPECT THE MOST SUN ON THU...THEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FRI AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING INTO THE GT LAKES. STILL EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRI ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFYING TROF EVOLVES AND WHERE CLOSED LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW CLOSING OFF TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT IMPACT ON SNE...BUT WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. MODELS KEEP HEAVIER QPF WELL TO THE NORTH AND WE WILL JUST HAVE CHC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH MAXES ONLY IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...VFR CIGS BKN035-050...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THEN SPREADING INTO EASTERN MA TOWARD SUNRISE. THEN SKC TOWARDS MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WSW WINDS 10-20 KT BECOME NW 15-25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR WITH MODEST NW WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND SW LATE. TUESDAY...VFR WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE IN THE DAY. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NW WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUE NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING STRATUS AND FOG. WED INTO WED EVENING...MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THU AND FRI...VFR. LOWERING CIGS FRI AFTERNOON.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT... WNW GALES ON SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TOMORROW... WNW WINDS 20-30 KT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUE INTO WED...INCREASING SW FLOW TUE WITH PREFRONTAL GUSTS TO 25 KT KT DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED OVER S COASTAL WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT/WED. WED NIGHT AND THU...WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WED NIGHT AND DIMINISHING WITH NW WINDS BELOW 20 KT THU. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA WED NIGHT. FRI...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND LIGHT SEAS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ232>235- 237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230- 236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...DUNTEN LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN

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