Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161915 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 315 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry weather through Tuesday, then a gradual warm up begins Wednesday and continues into the weekend. Dry weather prevails through the weekend and possibly into next Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A few light showers/sprinkles south of New Eng and skirting the Islands will move offshore by late afternoon. Otherwise, numerous high clouds streaming across New Eng ahead of approaching mid level trough along with some strato cu. The trough axis moves through overnight and will be followed by clearing skies. However, with steep low level lapse rates over the water and northerly flow, areas of ocean effect clouds will impact the Cape and Nantucket. Do not expect any precip with the trough passage as column is quite dry. Main effect will be to bring another pulse of gusty northerly winds, mainly to E coastal MA and Cape/Islands. Diminishing winds becoming light elsewhere will result in good radiational cooling conditions, especially after midnight. Lows will drop to the low/mid 30s in the outlying locations away from the coast. Have continued frost advisories but feel it is marginal for the south coast where there may be enough wind to preclude frost. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday... Center of high pressure moves to the Mid Atlc region but surface ridging will be in control with abundant sunshine and light winds. After a chilly start, temps will recover to the mid/upper 50s which is about 5 degrees below normal. Tuesday night... Surface ridging shifts south of New Eng with SW flow developing. Clear skies and light winds will result in another cool night but temps not as cool as tonight as weak low level warm advection commences. Lows ranging from mid/upper 30s in the colder outlying locations to the 40s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 355 AM update... * Highlights... - Warmer than normal this period with highs in the 70s Thu-Sat-Sun - Dry weather through the workweek and likely into the weekend * Synoptic Overview... Several low amplitude northern stream short waves ride the Canadian/US border this period. Given the lack of amplitude each trough is moisture starved. Thus very little if any sensible weather across southern New England this period with each short wave passage just providing a wind shift and a reinforcing surge of dry air. Wednesday... Real nice day with 1028 mb high south of New England providing low level westerly flow advecting 925 mb temps of +11C across the region. This will support highs 65-70. Mild temps will be accompanied by light WSW winds and model RH cross sections suggesting lots of sunshine. Thursday... Next short wave trough moves across the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario and Quebec. Good low level WAA ahead of this feature with 925 mb temps warming to +14C here in southern New England. These warm temps aloft combined with modest WSW surface winds and mostly sunny conditions will support highs in the low 70s away from the south coast. No precip expected, just a dry frontal passage given the lack of moisture associated with northern stream short wave. It will turn breezy as pres gradient tightens ahead of trough. Model soundings suggest SW winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Friday... Not much thermal change in the post frontal airmass with 925 mb temps only cooling off to about +11C to +12C. High pres over the OH valley provides a well mixed blyr across New England with NW surface winds. This combination along with mostly sunny conditions will support highs 65-70. Another real nice day especially by late Oct standards. Next Weekend... Subtropical ridge builds over the southeast states into the Mid Atlantic region providing dry weather along with unseasonably warm temperatures here with highs well into the 70s especially Sunday. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. Through 00z...Mainly VFR cigs. Sct MVFR possible over the Berkshires and Cape/Islands. Tonight...VFR with gradual clearing. SCT-BKN low VFR/MVFR cigs possible over the Cape/Islands. N wind gusts to 20-25 kt Cape/Islands. Tuesday...VFR. N wind gusts to 20 kt across Cape/Islands in the morning, then diminishing. Tuesday night...VFR. Light winds turning SW. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...high confidence. 355 AM update... VFR, dry runways and good vsbys. WSW winds may approach 25 kt Thu. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. Mid level trough passage tonight will bring another pulse of gusty northerly winds. A period of 25 kt gusts expected tonight with SCA for all waters. Winds diminish during Tue with light winds Tue night as high pres builds across the waters. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence. 355 AM update... Overall quiet/tranquil boating weather by mid to late October standards. Only potential issue will be Thu when WSW winds may gusts up to 25 kt near shore ahead of an approaching weak/dry cold front. Otherwise good vsby and dry weather through the period. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ005-006- 009>014-017-018-020-021-026. RI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001-003- 006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Nocera AVIATION...KJC/Nocera MARINE...KJC/Nocera is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.