Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 262014 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 414 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT...MERRIMACK AND PIONEER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TO THIN CIRRUS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED MAINLY OVER NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS THESE TRAVEL EASTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS THEY HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. WHILE I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THEY DO...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS AT MOST. TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS DRY BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING NOT JUST SPRINKLES BUT A GOOD TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP. FEEL THIS MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE CONVECTION OVER NEW YORK AND PA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS AND THAT WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THAT WARM...MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE OCEAN AND BLEEDING ONTO THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS WHERE BOTH ONSHORE WINDS AND PERHAPS LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THESE LOCATIONS. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS A BIT BETTER THAN IT WAS TODAY BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEAVE PLENTY TO BE DESIRED. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FOCUSING WILL BE. THESE STORMS...MUCH LIKE TODAY...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...AND VERY SUMMER-LIKE. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST... SHOULD MEAN PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TIMING VARIES SOME AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AM NOT EXPECTING A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TIMING FOR NOW...AND LEAVE THE WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL FRONT RATHER BROAD. DETAILS... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S AND SE COASTS AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE. THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT STILL SOME INSTABILITY LINGERING WITH SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON WED...AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL DECENT BY NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS. SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS MID LAYER STARTS TO COOL A BIT LENDING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...AROUND 1.5 INCHES...BUT STILL ENOUGH WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION... NOT A WHOLE LOT OF FORCING OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. ONE MORE ROUND OF FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MAINLY FROM COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD. SATURDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS AS ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO SLIP SE OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LOOKS LIKE MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY-MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN STALLING NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAY SEE DRIER AIR WORK INTO NORTHERN MA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. CHANCE OF A TSTM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ACROSS CT/PIONEER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS. COULD SEE PASSING SHOWER OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST DURING THE MORNING SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR... DROPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY -SHRA/-TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS RI/SE MA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS AS MARITIME FOG AND STRATUS ROLLS BACK IN. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. COULD SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WITHIN A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM TODAY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS. SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SUNDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON/ EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD END SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 5 FEET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S-SW WINDS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT... MAINLY THU INTO THU NIGHT. SEAS LINGERING AT AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS THROUGH THU...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE. VSBYS REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE OFFSHORE BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHTS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 250-254>256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG

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