Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181915 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 215 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably mild temperatures will prevail Sunday. A dry cold front swings through Southern New England Sunday night, bringing a return to chilly weather into Tuesday. Milder weather returns the middle of next week. However, another pair of fronts may be accompanied by some precipitation sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mid level shortwave passing to the north tonight will result in a weak cold front dropping south from northern New Eng late tonight. Decent low level jet will maintain a modest W/SW breeze and mild temps ahead of the front with min temps remaining mostly in the 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday... Another shortwave passes to the north and this will help to drive the cold front south across the region during the late morning into the afternoon with a wind shift to W/NW and gusts to 20-25 mph. Cross sections indicate increasing low level moisture which will result in fair amount of clouds in the afternoon, especially interior but dry conditions. Colder air lagging well behind the front and 925 mb temps still 4-8C at 18z. This supports highs into the 50s in the coastal plain and interior valleys and may even see a few locations in interior E MA top out in the upper 50s with sufficient sun. Cooler 40s over the higher elevations. Sunday night... Mid level trof amplifies east of New Eng with closed low developing in the Maritimes. Another shortwave rotating around the low will bring a surge of coastal NW wind gusts and colder temperatures into SNE. Dry weather continues, although there is a low risk for a few snow showers along the east slopes of the Berkshires. Lows will settle back into the 20s, except lower 30s along the immediate coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Big Picture... Amplified mid level flow morphs into a nearly unified zonal flow across the entire USA toward mid week. More amplified flow possible develops late next week. As mentioned previously, as long as there is a distinct southern jet intercepting Gulf moisture, our weather will likely remain dry. Model mass fields remain similar through Tuesday, then diverge. Differences are mostly in details rather than the general pattern. Confidence for the long term is moderate to high, with highest confidence Sunday, then diminishing confidence with time. Details... For the most part, a quiet period for weather. Sunday Night through Tuesday... Lack of moisture during this period will mean dry weather, with some clouds from time to time. Expecting near normal temperatures through this period. High pressure moves east through New England Tuesday. Tuesday Night into Wednesday... Both a warm and cold front should move across New England. Not a lot of moisture available, but enough to mention a low probability of showers. Depending on timing, temperatures may be low enough where some spotty freezing rain would be possible. Thursday into Friday... High pressure builds surface and aloft Thursday, bringing dry weather. Southwest winds should mean another period of well above normal temperatures. A larger low pressure may approach late next week. General theme from the latest guidance is this low pressure should pass through the Great Lakes. This track would mean more of a rain event, than one for snow. Much above normal temperatures continue. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00z...VFR. SW gusts to 25-30 kt, especially across southern RI and SE MA. Tonight through Sunday night...Moderate confidence. VFR, but patchy MVFR cigs possible Sun afternoon and night, especially interior. SW gusts diminishing tonight, but areas of LLWS through the first half of tonight. NW gusts to 25 kt developing Sun night along the coast. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate confidence. Monday through Tuesday... Generally VFR. West winds ahead of the cold front turn from the North overnight and Monday with gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds diminish Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. Wednesday... Cold front sweeps through with Southwest winds leading the front, then shifting from the West after passage. CIGs and Vsbys lower to MVFR in showers, then improve to VFR after the front moves through.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday night/...High confidence. Through tonight...SW gusts 25-30 kt, strongest over eastern waters, will gradually diminish overnight. SCA all waters into the evening. Sunday...Mainly west winds up to 20 kt, but W/NW gusts to 25 kt may develop by late afternoon over NE MA waters. Sunday night...A surge of NW winds with gusts 25-30 developing, strongest eastern waters. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...Moderate confidence. Monday into Tuesday... North winds gust 25 to 30 knots Monday, diminishing Monday night and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. Rough seas east of Cape Cod and Nantucket Monday, but diminish Monday night and Tuesday. Seas on the remaining waters should be less than 5 feet. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this time. Wednesday... A cold front will cross the waters later Wednesday. Increasing south-southwest winds ahead of this front. Winds then shift from the west after the cold front goes through. Winds should remain at 20 knots or less, and seas less than 5 feet.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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2 PM update...KBOX radar is back in service.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/KJC MARINE...Belk/KJC EQUIPMENT...

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