Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 072057 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 357 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THIS EVENING. A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... *** BLIZZARD WARNING PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS *** *** STRONG WINDS/HEAVY WET SNOW/POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS *** *** HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ALL OF EASTERN MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT *** *** SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOUTH OF BOSTON *** 12Z MODELS ... 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS HAVE ALL TRENDED UPWARD IN QPF/SNOWFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SAME TREND IN THE 12Z RGEM GIVES US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY ROBUST 12Z NAM WHICH IS PICKING UP ON THE OCEAN EFFECT AND LAND/SEA ENHANCEMENT OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY INTO THE UPPER CAPE. THUS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM. FURTHERMORE THE NAM HIGHEST SKILL IS WITHIN THE FIRST 36 HRS. THUS WE ARE IN THE NAM WHEELHOUSE. OVERVIEW ... IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PRES FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 7MB IN THE PAST 3 HRS OFF THE VA COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND ADVANCING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 18Z MON WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS TOO FAR OUT TO SEA FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE IS VERY INTENSE WITH SURFACE PRES LOWERING TO ABOUT 975 MB 18Z MON AND WITH A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN WHAT THIS TYPICAL TRACK OFFERS. IN FACT A MODEL BLEND GIVES STORM TOTAL QPF OF UP TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS TO NORTHEAST MA/NH BORDER. ONSET ... SNOW OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z/3AM AND 11Z/6AM WITH MAIN SHIELD APPROACHING THE SOUTH COAST FROM THE OCEAN. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHTER UPSLOPE SNOWS DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW TOWARD 12Z/7AM. SNOW INTENSITY ... HEAVIEST SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR 12Z- 20Z. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS TIME. IT WILL CONTINUE SNOWING AFTER 20Z/3PM BUT AT A MUCH LESSER INTENSITY. HEAVY SNOW MAY LINGER UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS CAPE COD AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS GOOD ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-17ZISH. THIS ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES AND LOWER VSBY. IN ADDITION A SHARP COASTAL FRONT WILL SETUP VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ALONG AND TO THE EAST WHILE DIMINISHING SNOWFALL WEST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE CT RVR VLY. FURTHERMORE THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES FIRST ACROSS CAPE ANN AND SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD. OVERALL THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED AND ALSO THE LATE DAY COMMUTE ESPECIALLY TRAVEL ACROSS RT-3 IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND ACROSS CAPE COD. STRONG WINDS/WET SNOW/POWER OUTAGES ... INITALLY BLYR LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY WET SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TREES ALREADY STRESSED ACROSS THIS REGION FROM FRIDAY/S SNOWSTORM THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. ADDING TO THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVEN A LOW RISK OF A FEW LOCATIONS HERE POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 70 MPH! HAZARDS/HEADLINES ... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING WE WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOW RISK OF UP TO 18" ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH AND UPPER CAPE COD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES MONDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN MA TO NH BORDER...ALL OF RI AND NORTHEAST EASTERN CT FOR 5-8 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR REMAINDER OF NORTHERN CT ...WESTERN-CENTRAL MA FOR 2-5 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS ARE MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAW UPON THE LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE COD WHERE THE EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE LOW GETS FARTHER AWAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BIG PICTURE... LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT SHORTER SCALES...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THREE SHORTWAVES AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE FIRST PASSES WELL OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND GENERATES ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MONDAY NIGHT...THIS ONE ON THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE EASTERN USA TROUGH...THEN SWEEPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN DIVES SOUTH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MAINTAINS THE EASTERN CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW HEIGHTS INTO SATURDAY. THIS POINTS TO AN UNSETTLED PERIOD MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY WEEK AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK. MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY AND INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS IN TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...ESPECIALLY STARTING TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF MODEL DATA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND MODERATE FOR THE LATE WEEK. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE SECOND COASTAL LOW GEARS UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH...AND MODELS AGREE...TO BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONGEST LIFT TUESDAY MORNING IS FOCUSSED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AOB 850 MB...WITH DEEPER LIFT TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL WILL WORK INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS...AND ENOUGH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THIS SHORTWAVE COMES FROM NORTHERN CANADA...WILL SUPPORT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING ONE MORE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY-SATURDAY... COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT DAYTIME CLOUDS BUT THE DEEPER COLUMN WILL BECOME DRY SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE BETWEEN 900 AND 925 MB FRIDAY...AND 875 MB SATURDAY. TEMPS AT THESE LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY. THIS COLD AIR ALONG WITH 15-25 KNOT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. THE FRIDAY WEST-TO-EAST FETCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL SNOW BANDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AFFECTING THE ISLANDS. THE SATURDAY NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD MAINLY BE OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 2 PM UPDATE ... THRU MIDNIGHT ... VFR/DRY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT ... CIGS LOWERING QUICKLY INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE REGION 08Z-12Z. VSBYS MAINLY VFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD 12Z SOUTH COAST OF MA. AFTER 12Z MONDAY ... HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS RI AND ALL OF EASTERN MA WITH IFR/LIFR 12Z-18Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING TO 21Z-24Z SOUTHEAST MA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" WILL BE COMMON 12Z-18Z OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...LESS INTO CT-WESTERN/CENTRAL MA. VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST WITH STRONGEST OVER PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 KT LIKELY WITH LOW PROB UP 65 KT! SNOWFALL TOTALS THRU 00Z TUE ... KFMH ... 10-16 INCHES KBOS ... 6 TO 10 INCHES KPVD ... 8 TO 12 INCHES KBDL ... 2 TO 5 INCHES KORH ... 4 TO 7 INCHES KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVY SNOW THREAT 12Z-18Z WITH VSBY 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN EAST ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PERIODS OF SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND 20-25 KNOTS TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING. THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A WIND SHIFT. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEAR 30 KNOTS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERNIGHT...W TO SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. TODAY...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN MA WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTAL WATERS. VSBY LOWERING IN SNOW LATE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY WITH POWERFUL LOW PRES WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST COMBINING WITH A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. MONDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KTS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW. LOCALLY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR WIND GUSTS OF LESS THAN 30 KTS. VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 14-18 FEET OFF THE MA COAST. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE... MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS. GALES LINGERING NORTH AND EAST OF PROVINCETOWN EARLY IN THE NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS EARLY WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET EASTOF MASSACHUSETTS...DIMINISHING TO 8-12 FEET BY MORNING. AS GALES COME DOWN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS TUESDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...WITH SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS TUESDAY AND BELOW 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH 7-10 FOOT HEIGHTS TUESDAY AND 5-10 FOOT HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. THURSDAY... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE 5-8 FOOT SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEFLY POOR VSBYS. THE ARCTIC COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO GENERATE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCAL POOR VSBYS LATER IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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4 PM UPDATE ... HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SOUTH OF BOSTON THRU COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD. THUS LESS STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE LATE MONDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY...BASICALLY 9 AM TO 1 PM IS THE TIMELINE. EXPECTING A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 2 FT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH 1-1.5 FT FROM BOSTON NORTHWARD TO THE MA/NH BORDER. ETSS WAS HIGHER THAN THE ESTOFS AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN NE WINDS WILL GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOW RISK OF 70 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THUS FOLLOWED THE MORE BULLISH ETSS SURGE. IN ADDITION LARGE WAVES OF 10-20 FT JUST OFFSHORE ONTOP OF THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WAVES TO RUNUP THE SHORELINE AND UP AND OVER SEAWALLS AND OTHER STRUCTURES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POTENTIAL MODERATE BEACH EROSION. AGAIN GREATEST IMPACTS MONDAY 9 AM TO 1 PM ALONG PLYMOUTH COAST TO CAPE COD BAY TO NANTUCKET...WITH LESS IMPACTS BOSTON NORTHWARD TO MA/NH BORDER. COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE LATE MON EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER ASTRO TIDE IS LOWER...LESS WINDS AND PRES RISES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE ... GIVEN THIS OCEAN STORM IS DEVELOPING SO FAR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SE SWELLS AND PUSH OF WATER THAT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE MON EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002-003. MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-012>017-020. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ019- 022-024. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ018-019- 021>024. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ007- 015-016-023. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026. RI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-233>235- 237. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ236.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...GAF LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA MARINE...WTB/NOCERA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA/KJC

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