Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 031713 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 113 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UNSETTLED AND COOL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BENEATH A CLOSED LOW...CLEARING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. DRY AND MILD WEATHER MAY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
110 PM UPDATE... STEADY LIGHT RAIN WAS NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODERATE RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT NNE FLOW...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AND DREARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... UPDATED 330 AM ... TONIGHT ... COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM TOP DOWN AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND DEPARTING FRONTAL WAVE. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR MUCH IF ANY GIVEN LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IN FACT THIS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE/MIST OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY ... LONG WAVE TROUGH SHARPENS AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO THRU THE GREAT LAKES FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BACKS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A NEW FRONTAL WAVE AND PLUME OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYS END. SO THE WEATHER THEME FOR WED WILL BE A MAINLY DRY START /OTHER THAN MORNING MIST-DRIZZLE/ FOLLOWED BY INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED FROM THE MARITIMES INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - AN UNSETTLED AND COOL PATTERN THROUGH WEEKS END - POTENTIALLY CLEARING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT - THE POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK FOR A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MAY */ DISCUSSION... A COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE BLOCKY PATTERN. ENSEMBLE FORECAST APPROACH PREFERRED GIVEN ANOMALOUS SETUP OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW-AVERAGE ATYPICAL FOR MAY. THIS PARENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH W EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED CUT- OFF LOW BY WEEKS END PRIOR TO N-STREAM KICKER OVER THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF ENERGY WITHIN THE OVERALL PATTERN DRAWING AND FORCING MOISTURE N AS COOLER AIR IS ISENTROPICALLY DRAWN S. DAMP AND DREARY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SOCKED IN BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE GIVEN DOMINANT N/NE ONSHORE FLOW. MAYBE A BRIEF BREAK PRIOR TO THE N-STREAM KICKER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT. FOR NEXT WEEK A MORE AVERAGE AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN POSSIBLY SETS UP WITH DOMINANT W/SW FLOW MORE TYPICAL FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 12Z UPDATE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT STILL SOME IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY CAPE AND ISLANDS. STEADY RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DOMINATE WITH LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME AS DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY TRIES TO WORK INTO THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT SOME MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. IFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS GIVEN NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STEADY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING DIMINISHES TO A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME TONIGHT. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR TO LIFR MIX ESPECIALLY WITH -RA. WORST CONDITIONS POISED E/S ALONG THE COASTS. DOMINANT E/NE FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 AM UPDATE... GIVEN PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS MAY ONLY BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITERIA...FETCH SHOULD BE LONG ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET. OTHERWISE...STEADY RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATE WED. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW THOUGH REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NE ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVES BUILDING 5 TO 7 FEET REQUIRING SMALL CRAFTS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. CONFIDENCE ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.