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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 011227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A CLIPPER LOW TODAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. AN OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF
OUR REGION TO JUST BRING THE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MON
NIGHT/TUE... MAINLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER
WED/THU WILL BE REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER SOMETIME FRI OR
SAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
725 AM UPDATE...

***LIGHT FREEZING RAIN RESULTING IN NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS ACROSS
  INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING***

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.  AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE RESULTED IN ICY ROADS AND
NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS.  ACROSS SOUTHERN NH...PTYPE HAS BEEN LIGHT SNOW
BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS COULD CHANGE THEM OVER TO -FZDZ SHORTLY.
WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE CAN MAKE
FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AS WE HAVE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.

WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW TEMPS RESPOND THIS AFTERNOON.  ITS
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COLD AIR COULD GET TRAPPED IN PORTIONS OF THAT
REGION.

NO ISSUES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY ABOVE
FREEZING AND JUST DEALING WITH SHOWERS IN THOSE LOCATION.

OTHERWISE... WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. THERE IS A
DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR EITHER DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TO SEE MUCH OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...PWAT VALUES ARE LESS THAN AN INCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ESP WITH THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PTYPE ISSUES MAY BE AN
ISSUE BUT FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT A MIX WITH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOSTON METRO AND WORCESTER METRO AREAS
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...YET UNCERTAIN ON HOW DENSE
IT WILL BE ESP SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT/TUE
* MILDER WED/THU WITH JUST THE RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO
* TURNING COLDER SOMETIME FRI INTO SAT WITH A PERIOD OF
  PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTENSIFYING INTO A STRONG
OCEAN STORM. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOO FAR
EAST AND INTENSIFY TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. IF SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WERE TO REACH INTO THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STEADY PRECIP MAY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT TOO EARLY TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THAT POSSIBILITY. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S ON
TUESDAY WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
MOST OF THIS TIME WILL PROBABLY END UP DRY...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SPOT
SHOWERS SOMETIME LATE WED OR THU. RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION...AS A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH AND WHERE WE END UP IN RELATION TO THE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE...WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER. WE DO KNOW THAT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN COLDER...BUT WHEN THAT OCCURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
WE ALSO WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. ITS ALSO
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE AREA ENDS UP WITH A BIT
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THE END. THIS WOULD OCCUR IF THE
BOUNDARY HANGS UP TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON IT. AGAIN THOUGH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE IN THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

BEFORE 12Z...
VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR. EXPECT SCT -SHSN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFT 08Z INTO THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY -SHRA
ALONG THE COAST. EVEN SOME SPOTTY -FZDZ OR LGT -FZRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

TODAY...
-SHSN/-FZDZ WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO -SHRA THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LIFT TO VFR LATE IN THE
DAY ESP ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

TONIGHT...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR VFR/MVFR CIGS TO DROP OVERNIGHT TO
LOW END MVFR/IFR. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ESP ACROSS EASTERN
COASTLINE CAUSING VSBYS RESTRICTIONS.

TOMORROW...
LINGERING FOG WILL KEEP VSBYS LOW BUT CIGS MAY LIFT TO MVFR
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE EAST COASTLINE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THIS
TIME PERIOD.  LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWER WILL EXIST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THU OR THU NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR CHOPPY
SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE AN HOUR
OR TWO WHERE SEAS INCREASE TO 5FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CONFIDENCE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. DRIZZLE
AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WHICH
COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN STORM
WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE REGION.  PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA
SEAS ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEPS WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE HIGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN 11.9
HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON.  FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE OCEAN STORM
WILL INTENSIFY TOO FAR EAST AND TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT.  HOWEVER...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND
POCKETS OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST
GIVEN THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.  IN ADDITION...MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE TUESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES
ALONG THE OUTER CAPE OCEAN SIDE AND THE EAST SHORE OF NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...