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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 141100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
7PM UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS KEEN TO KASH TO KBVY. IN FACT
BEDFORD JUMPED FROM 41 TO 59 WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND
ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE GUSTY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW 2SM. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT /40-50 KNOTS/ WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE MERRIMACK VALLEY. DYNAMICS AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...SO EXPECT A DRY WEATHER
DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL START THE DAY MILD.
MIXING SHOULD REACH TO AT LEAST 925 MB...TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL AND
AT 900 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF THE WATERS WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST
COOLER...55-65. OBSERVED WINDS THROUGH THOSE LEVELS ARE 35-40
KNOTS...MUCH COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE. WE ARE ESTIMATING GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND
PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS
OFF OUR SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE
MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION WED MORNING
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
* MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT FEATURE TO
FOCUS ON IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER 48
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING MULTIPLE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE CONUS...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT BELIEVE ACROSS CT AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WET WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AND BE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC/GULF
MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY...INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THAT THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
BE IMPACTED THE MOST ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWER VSBYS AND PONDING ACROSS ROADWAYS. FINALLY THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO INDICATING FOR MORE
ELEVATED CONVECTION. ALSO WITH STRONG 925MB LLJ BETWEEN
50-70KTS...ANY STRONG SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD TAP INTO THESE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS THAT WOULD GENERALLY LOOK WEAKER. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN VERY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT MIXING
OR A CHANGE SNOW VERY BRIEFLY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS STRONG CAA MOVING INTO REGION EXPECT A
RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSTANCE AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE BUILDING HIGH OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR YIELDING TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REGION.

OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR WED
AND THURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND RAW ALONG THE EAST
COASTLINE AS EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DROP TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT BY SEVERAL
DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...AND
COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS. ANY VEGETATION THAT DECIDED TO START
GROWING THIS PAST WEEK...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WILL
NEED TO BE COVERED AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. NO PLANS FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES AS GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL
20TH.

FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING DUE TO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TRYING
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASS COASTLINE TO STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IN FACT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE CAPE OR EVEN BOSTON WILL GET ABOVE 50 UNTIL SAT OR
MAYBE SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THERE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SOGGY AND COOLER WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING

7AM UPDATE...

TODAY...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH 30 KNOT WINDS.
WINDS AT 2000-3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS CONTINUING
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT...
THE HUMID ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS. CONTINUED STRONG
WINDS AT 2000 FEET WITH RESULTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE CT VALLEY AROUND
SUNRISE...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING. ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 35 KNOTS...POSSIBLY 40 KNOTS.
CONTINUED STRONG WINDS AT 2000 FEET WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E DURING WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT OTHERWISE
FAIR SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS. INCREASING SEAS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AROUND 30 KNOTS...SEAS REACHING 5-8 FEET
ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS
CONTINUES.

TONIGHT...FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWINDS
WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

TUESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS
OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD FURTHER IN RESPONSE. WINDS START TO RELAX LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT.
ROUGH SEAS LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO
RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...