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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 200805
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
405 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves across Southern New England this morning,
followed by another weak front Wednesday. High pressure then
builds over the region Thursday. Warmer temperatures return
late in the week as the high moves off to the east. Another cold
front crosses from the west over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered showers lifting north across SNE early this morning.
Low level jet and theta-e plume crosses SE New Eng toward 12z
where main focus for showers and an isold t-storm this morning.
Otherwise, models indicate good drying in the column through
the day with theta-e ridge axis pushing offshore which is the
main effect of weak fropa this morning. This will result in
stratus and south coast fog giving way to partly to mostly sunny
skies mid/late morning, but stratus and fog may linger over the
Islands until early afternoon. Low risk of a brief shower for
western MA this afternoon as shortwave lifts to the north.

Deep mixing developing today with near dry adiabatic 1000-850
mb lapse rates will result in breezy conditions with SW gusts up
to 30 mph. 850 mb temps 12-14C this afternoon support highs in
the low/mid 80s away from the south coast with some upper 80s
possible Merrimack valley. Cooler 70s along the immediate south
coast with SW flow. Dewpoints will be dropping today, into the
50s this afternoon in the interior, but will remain in the 60s
near the coast.

Surf conditions...Gusty SW winds will result in seas up to 7
feet just offshore which will lead to high surf and increased
risk for dangerous rip currents for ocean exposed beaches along
the south coast. High surf advisory has been issued.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tonight...

Quiet night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Drier
airmass will allow temps to fall back into the 50s in the
interior and outlying locations with lower 60s near the coast
and urban centers.

Wednesday...

Mid level trof moves into New Eng with cooling temps aloft and
steepening low and mid level lapse rates. Moisture is limited
but models indicate marginal instability with sfc CAPES up to
1000 J/kg in the coastal plain and TT increasing into the lower
50s. Low risk for an isold t-storm Wed afternoon with weak sfc
trof possibly providing a focus for low level convergence. Any
storms will have the potential for gusty winds given steep low
level lapse rates and inverted V profile. Highs will be mostly
in the lower 80s, except upper 70s higher terrain and south
coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
*/ Highlights...

 - Comfortable and dry Thursday
 - Periods of wet weather for Friday and Saturday
 - Pleasant Sunday, scattered showers for Monday

*/ Overview...

Dominant H5 ridge pattern over the W CONUS contributing to surface
high pressure over the Central CONUS and the recent record-breaking
heat over the desert SW. Until that breaks, as some of the ensemble
mean guidance suggests by late June into early July, the NE CONUS
finds itself oscillating between sultry, humid air brought about by
S flow round NW Atlantic high pressure, and cooler, comfortable air
in wake of cool fronts associated with mid-latitude disturbances
sweeping through a preferred troughing pattern S of the Hudson Bay.
Wet weather chances at the emphasis of airmass exchanges which are
discussed in detail below.

*/ Details...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...

Comfortable, dry conditions with high pressure in control. A non-NAM
consensus as the NAM struggles with the cool front stalling it along
the S-coast. Prefer rather to clear it out Wednesday night as high
pressure settle in. Light winds, an radiational cooling opportunity
into Thursday morning. Keep lows close to lowest MOS guidance around
the mid to upper 50s. High pressure and light winds Thursday, expect
a comfortable, pleasant day with seasonable highs around the upper
70s to low 80s, cooler along the shore with sea-breezes. Clouds on
the increase, lowering and thickening into Thursday night, may see
some shower activity towards Friday morning as S/SW winds enhance,
converging higher surface dewpoints / low-level theta-E air into the
N lifting warm front.

Friday through Saturday...

Periods of wet weather, potentially heavy at times especially with
any thunderstorms. Digging trough axis ahead of which sub-tropical
moisture becomes stretched. Enhanced SW draw of high theta-E air
contributing to a muggy, humid environment across S New England.
Dewpoints back into the 70s and precipitable water values around 2
inches. Lift beneath favorable ascent of low-level convergent winds
ahead of the cool front, a measure of instability and some decent
shear, can not rule out updraft maintenance that contributes to the
potential of 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates. A low confidence
forecast though siding with the slower 20.0z GFS.

Sunday into Monday...

Perhaps squeeze out a pleasant Sunday, slightly cooler and drier,
prior to a consensus forecast of the main H5 trough axis and vort-
max energy sweeping through the region Monday contributing ascent
upon available moisture lending to scattered shower, possible
thunderstorm activity. Go with chance PoPs and keep temperatures
close to seasonable for this time of year, upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday onward...

Beneath the cold pool, lingering cyclonic flow, can`t rule out the
possibility of scattered shower activity for Tuesday. By Wednesday,
early hints of the H5 ridge breaking down across the W CONUS that
contribute to higher mid-latitude heights downstream, enhancing the
NW Atlantic high, reaffirming warm, muggy S flow over time. With any
frontal boundaries through the remaining week, can`t rule out shower
and thunderstorm activity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Through 12z...Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs with areas of LIFR
stratus and fog near the south coast. Sct showers moving north
into SNE with an isold t-storm possible S New Eng and
particularly the Cape/Islands.

Today...Moderate Confidence.
Improving to VFR 12-15z but areas of IFR may persist over the
Cape and especially ACK until 15-18z. SW wind gusts to 25 kt
developing in the afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence.
Mainly VFR but some fog is possible over ACK.

Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR with sct-bkn cigs 5-7k ft developing. An isold t-storm
possible in the afternoon. W/SW gusts to 20 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Lower cigs should improve
to VFR by 12-14z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. Lower cigs should improve
to VFR around 12z.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Thursday...

Becoming SKC Wednesday night, yet CIGs return Thursday into Thursday
night, lowering and thickening towards low-end VFR / MVFR. Light W
winds overnight becoming S Thursday, sea-breezes possible along the
E coastline.

Friday and Saturday...

Low-end VFR CIGs with MVFR/IFR along S/SE coastal terminals. SCT
SHRA / TSRA. TEMPO IFR possible with any RA/+RA which is forecast.
S/SW flow 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Winds diminish Friday
night into Saturday while turning W.

Sunday...

Improving towards SKC, SCT-BKN low-end VFR CIGs during the day over
mainly interior terminals. Light W/SW winds overall which may allow
for sea-breezes along the coastline.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Wednesday/...

Today...High confidence.
A period of SW gusts to 25 kt expected to develop over
nearshore waters, especially Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay
where best mixing will occur. Less wind outer waters but
hazardous seas up to 7 ft expected. SCA posted for all waters
for combination of wind and seas. Improving vsbys later this
morning and afternoon for south coastal waters.

Tonight...High confidence.
Diminishing SW winds becoming light overnight. Seas slowly
subsiding but remaining above 5 ft over outer waters.

Wednesday...High confidence.
SW winds mainly below SCA although a few gusts to 25 kt can`t be
ruled out nearshore waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Thursday...

Light W winds overnight becoming S Thursday, sea-breezes possible
along the E coastline. Waves quickly diminishing on the S/SE outer
waters thus allowing the conclusion of SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

Friday and Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, some of which may
result in reduced visibility. S/SW flow 10 to 15 kts with gusts to
25 kts. Winds diminish Friday night into Saturday while turning W.
Seas heighten to 5 feet on the outer waters briefly on Friday.

Sunday...

Improving towards SKC, SCT-BKN low-end VFR CIGs during the day over
mainly interior terminals. Light W/SW winds overall which may allow
for sea-breezes along the coastline. If any seas in excess of 5 feet
they will quickly diminish.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-023-
     024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006-007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell