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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 062111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. AN OCEAN STORM
MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS "POSSIBLE" WED INTO
THU...BUT ITS FAR FROM CERTAIN GIVEN ITS NEARLY A WEEK IN THE FUTURE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1245 PM UPDATE...CONTINUED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH
MIDDAY AND SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATE SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
AND CONTINUED MENTION OF THIS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
DIMINISHING.

TEMPS/DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER YET CHILLY TEMPS. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL
ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A MORE NNE WIND ALONG THE COAST. THIS NNE MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SE COASTAL PLAIN REGION...THIS IS ALSO NOTED
IN CROSS SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CLEAR...CALM NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINATE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER MODELS DO
INDICATE A SUBSTANCE INVERSION SETTING UP TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
FAIRLY DRY SO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG SEEMS LOW...BUT IT
MAY BE THE CASE WHERE THE VALLEY ARE COOLER THEN THE HILLS.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME
SITES DROPPING BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
BEGINS TO HEAD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TREND OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS MOVED JUST SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISLANDS
TO SEE SOME PRECIP. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR 850 MB TEMPS TO JUMP
FROM -8C TO 0C. DUE TO THE STRONG WAA...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SOUTHERLY TREND RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THIS IS EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT 950 TO 925
MB RH FIELDS. REGARDLESS OF THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE WARM TEMPS
WILL BE MOST WELCOMED WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40F.
THIS IS AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD ON SATURDAY
* SOMEWHAT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
* SIGNIFICANT STORM "POSSIBLE" NEXT WED/THU BUT NOT A CERTAINTY

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  IT
WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.  SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY
HANG ON FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
MAY ALSO RESULT IN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.  LOWS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 20S
TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD
AS WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 30S...TO AROUND 40.  LITTLE
MOISTURE OR FORCING AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AND
AGAIN MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE.  THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF
FAST MOVING BUT MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.  AGAIN
THOUGH...LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT ODDS
OF THEM TAPPING MUCH ATLANTIC MOISTURE APPEARS LOW.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DO NOT LOOK THAT COLD COMPARED TO
OUR RECENT WEATHER.  HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S.  WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ON TUESDAY.  IT COULD EVEN BREAK
50 IN SOME LOCALES IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFIES...SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME.  ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOMETIME WED/THU...BUT ITS FAR
FROM BEING A CERTAINTY.  KEEP IN MIND THIS "POSSIBLE" EVENT IS STILL
6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.  OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FRAME.  A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.

AT THIS TIME FRAME...WE HAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.
THERE ARE 3 MAIN POSSIBILITIES THAT CAN OCCUR.  THE FIRST IS A
SCENARIO WHERE THE TIMING ENDS UP BEING OFF ALLOWING MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN ENERGY TO PASS OUT TO SEA...RESULTING IN A MISS OR GLANCING
BLOW.  THE 2ND IS WHERE THE SYSTEM PHASES TO AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE...ALLOWING FOR A NOREASTER TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
TO MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE THIRD IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PHASED
SOLUTION...WHERE WE END UP DEALING WITH SNOW CHANGING TO ICE AND/OR
RAIN.

ALL IN ALL...THE MAIN IDEA IS UNTIL WE GET AT LEAST INSIDE 4
DAYS...MODELS MAY BOUNCE AROUND SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN TO RUN.  ALL
WE CAN SAY IS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT ITS FAR
FROM A LOCK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR IN OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS ALONG FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE AND
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLD/SCT FLURRIES LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR TO START...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE REGION.  HOWEVER...MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...BUT A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTY N/NE WINDS AOA
25KTS AND ROUGH SEAS.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS.

AN OCEAN STORM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...THIS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE SEAS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. SCA
NOT EXPECT ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT
OVER SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM THE DISTANT OCEAN STORM WILL RESULT IN SCA
SEAS FOR MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.  SCA ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS A TIMES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NHZ011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 6
     AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6
     AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/NMB
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NMB