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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 040244
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LINGERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL. VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH AN OCEAN STORM
LIKELY PASSING OUT TO SEA LATE THIS WEEK. NOT AS COLD LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
10 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BUT STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. AS WINDS BEGIN TO GO LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
DROP...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT. IN FACT SOME SITES ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THIS TEMP TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BIG QUESTION
OF HOW LOW TEMPS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT. DO LIKE PREV FORECASTERS MIN
TEMPS SO HAVE CONTINUED THIS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECREASING CLOUD TREND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
BY EARLY MARCH STANDARDS. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEARING SKIES FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS REGION-WIDE ALONG WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO. THIS INCLUDES THE I-495 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST MA!
BASICALLY FOLLOWED GUID FOR MINS BUT UNDERCUT BY 2-3 DEGS IN THE
TRADITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS INLAND /CT RVR VLY AND
INTERIOR EASTERN MA/. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE AT WINDSOR LOCKS
CT/ BDL / FOR MARCH 4 IS +2 DEGREES...SET BACK IN 1950 AND WE ARE
FORECASTING A LOW OF +2 THERE. RECORDS AT BOS/ORH/PVD DO NOT LOOK
TO BE CHALLENGED.

OTHERWISE DRY QUIET NIGHT AHEAD. AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COLD MARCH OCEAN WATERS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DON/T APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
PRECIP. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY IS LACKING AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT SO IF PRECIP DEVELOPS IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

VERY COLD START TO THE DAY AND REMAINING DRY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 1030 MB HIGH WILL LIMIT BLYR MIXING TO
ABOUT 925 MB. THIS WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE MU20S...ABOUT 15 DEGS
COLDER THAN NORMAL! HOWEVER STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE VERY COLD TEMPS. SUNSHINE MAY BE
LIMITED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS OCEAN EFFECT STRATO-CU
LINGERS THERE. ALSO REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND
HELPING TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. DEEPEST MOISTURE APPEARS OVER
NORTHERN MA INTO NH. SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PRESENT SO
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO NH. ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. NOT AS COLD GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* OCEAN STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
* ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY

12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS ALWAYS THERE WILL BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS. WITH THE 12Z ECMWF COMING MORE IN LINE WITH
BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE 12Z GFS...EXPECT THAT THE OCEAN
STORM THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC FRIDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS AGREE ON LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN SOME WAY...HOWEVER THEY DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING
AND ALSO ON WHERE THE LOW COMES FROM AND WHERE IT TRACKS.  THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST...OFF THE EAST
COAST AND INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AND THE 12Z GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
TEXAS AND OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  ALL
OF THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE SMALLER MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW... PARTICULARLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH OFF THE OCEAN THAT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  NOT EXPECTING A LOT IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT COULD SEE A COATING UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME AN OCEAN STORM THAT MOVES WELL OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE PUSHED THE STORM FARTHER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE.  THE
12Z ECMWF EVEN PUSHES A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME.  HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTH
AND EAST COASTS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA TO BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  AGAIN...COULD SEE A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM. AS STATED IN THE OVERVIEW SECTION ABOVE...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.  REGARDLESS OF TRACK THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY SOME OF IT BEING SNOW.

MONDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING DRIER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH DRY WEATHER MODEST N WIND
BECOMING NNE TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

TUE...VFR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

TUE NIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR NORTHERN MA INTO NH IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE VFR
WITH LIGHT NE WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW...MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...

NNE WINDS 15-20 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUE...

LIGHT WINDS WITH 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY PREVAIL.

TUE NIGHT...

LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY OVER NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO AN OCEAN STORM
PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  WINDS WILL GUST RIGHT AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE
OCEAN STORM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. SEAS AT LEAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG