Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 280707 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 307 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY COMFORTABLE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. SATURDAY... HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND * ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK OVERVIEW... OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL YEARS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD /WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH THIS. WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...EVT

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