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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 132054 CCA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING
RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY FINALLY BE MOVING N AS WINDS HAVE
SHIFTING TO S AT KOWD...KORH AND KORE...BUT REMAINS STUBBORNLY
OUT OF THE NE FROM BOSTON AND BEDFORD UP TO CAPE ANN AND INTO S
CENTRAL NH AT 20Z. NOTING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AS THE LAST OF THE
CLOUD DECK WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE.

TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S FROM BOSTON NORTH TO
NASHUA...MANCHESTER AND JAFFREY...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
CT VALLEY AS S WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-22
KT THERE. NOTING DEWPTS RISING AS WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS N CT INTO SW MA...WHILE REMAINING AROUND
40 DEGREES OVER NE MA/S CENTRAL NH.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
THOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY START TO FORM ALONG THE S COAST CLOSE
TO SUNSET AS TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BACK.

TONIGHT...
WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.
DEWPTS WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP BEGINNING THIS
EVENING ALONG THE COAST...THEN WILL PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE GOOD INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE S-SW WINDS...EXPECT
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
MONDAY...
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE S COAST
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MID MORNING AS TEMPS RISE AND S-SW
WINDS INCREASE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS INTO MIDDAY. CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THERE AS WELL.

WITH A LOT OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT PRETTY GOOD MIXING IN PLACE. NOTING
STRONG LAPSE RATES UP TO AROUND H9 ESPECIALLY INLAND SO SHOULD SEE
SOME S-SW WINDS MIX DOWN. ALSO NOTING STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UP TO
45-50 KT AT BOTH H925 AND H850...SO HAVE MENTIONED GUSTS UP TO 30
KT POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E MA INTO S CENTRAL NH. H85
TEMPS UP TO +12C TO +14C CROSS S NH DURING THE MORNING AND WITH
THE GOOD WIND FLOW IN PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID OR EVEN
UPPER 70S IN S CENTRAL NH INTO THE MERRIMACK VALLEY OF MA. WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE GOOD ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...OVERALL...13/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. BIGGER DIFFERENCES ARISE TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN USA THAN THE GFS. THE GFS
PLACES IS EMPHASIS ON A STRONGER CUTOFF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
INSTEAD.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO MOST OF THE DETAILS THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE WRF-BASED GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
13/15Z SREF...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW MOVING THE COLD FRONT
TROUGH OUR REGION. GENERALLY FAVORED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION
OTHERWISE...TO SMOOTH OVER THE MINOR DIFFERENCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
GAVE MORE OF AN EDGE TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND...AS IT WAS PREFERRED BY WPC AND THE GFS CUTOFF LOOKS
ANOMALOUSLY TOO POTENT.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL WAVES ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...EXITING OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT
GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP MORE ON THE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL DUE
TO THE MARITIME AIR BEING ADVECTED ONSHORE FROM STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PUSHING
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING
RAINFALL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS A +4 STANDARD DEVIATION SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR A DECENT SOAKING.

WE ANTICIPATE THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED
ACROSS DUE TO THE HEAVIER RAIN AND LOWER VISIBILITY. FINALLY THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE LINE AT THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE...KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW.

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THIS FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE AROUND FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
A HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN USA...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG RIDGE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE
BUILDING HIGH OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR YIELDING TO EASTERLY
FLOW FOR OUR REGION. OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING FRIDAY DUE TO A BUILDING THERMAL
RIDGE TRYING TO PUSH INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASS COASTLINE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE ON ALL THREE DAYS TO GET
ABOVE 50F DUE TO THE ONSHORE WIND.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THEIR
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A SOGGY WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS
FAR OUT...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z-23Z ALONG S COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS RI/E MA...THEN WILL SHIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT. LOCAL
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO FOR S COASTAL TERMINALS.
LLWS AS SW LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS REGION.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-LATE MORNING. MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY. S-SW WINDS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KT. CONTINUED LLWS THROUGH MIDDAY...SW WINDS 40-50 KT AT
2000 FT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM W-E DURING TUE MORNING IN
RAIN. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WITH AREAS OF IFR. RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS S NH/W MA BEFORE ENDING LATE TUE NIGHT OR
WED MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E DURING WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD. SMALL CRAFTS IN EFFECT. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL 1/4 MILE
OR LESS. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE S COASTAL
WATERS.

MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING.
EXPECT IMPROVING VSBYS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF GALES TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER IN
RESPONSE. WINDS START TO RELAX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT
SEAS WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT.
ROUGH SEAS LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...BELK