


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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170 FXUS61 KBOX 261427 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1027 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Turning cooler as a result of a cold front, today through Saturday, then warming Sunday into early next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Major shift in temperatures with afternoon temperatures are in the 70s. Widely scattered light rain, under mainly cloudy skies. The cold front continues to move from the north to the south this morning, brings lower temperatures & dew points to southern New England. Associated with the front, are hit-or-miss showers and will linger through portions of the early morning. Heading out the door this morning it is noticeably less warm, between 5-10 degrees cooler, less humid too. So, say goodbye to the heat! Cold front ushered in a much cooler air mass, and temperatures aloft quickly fall. An east to northeast wind aids in the cooling conditions due to an area of high pressure over eastern Canada, which is shifting east. With an on shore flow, temperatures this afternoon are on either side of 70F. Though, for those living in the lower Connecticut River Valley, the influence of the North Atlantic is less here. Expect highs this afternoon in the middle 70s. In general, temperatures today are a solid 25F-30F degrees cooler than last couple of days. Plenty of cloud cover today and overnight, look for widely scattered rain as a shortwave rides the outer edge of the mid-level ridge. No washouts are expected. Nighttime lows fall to either side of 60F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Cool with widely scattered rain Friday, under cloudy skies. Friday is nearly a carbon copy of Thursday. The mid-level ridge is no more, and there is quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS. This allows for quick hitting shortwave energy to pass through the region, leads to plenty of cloud cover and widely scattered rain. Like Thursday, Friday will not be a washout, most of the day features dry periods than wet. High pressure shifts east and is near Nova Scotia and continues the northeast flow, temperatures remain below normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages: * Below normal temperatures remain on Saturday, but a return to the summer warmth Sunday though next week. * Best chance for showers comes Friday night into Saturday. As discussed prior, the mid-level ridge flattens and flow becomes nearly zonal. This allows for shortwaves to pass through the region and bring shower chances Friday night into Saturday, though there is still uncertainty with the heaviest rainfall, in generally it does look to stay across northern New England, but the ensembles do show probs of 0.5", the GEFS at 40-60%, ENS does not show this, but has even lower probabilites of 0.1" at 20-40%, while the CMC has 10-30% of 0.5" and +70% of 0.1". Something to watch, though the better forcing does look to be in northern New England. Don`t go canceling any outdoor events just yet. Briefly drier late Sunday into Monday, followed by a storms on Tuesday with a frontal passage. Temperature-wise, onshore flow provides cool temperatures Saturday, highs in the low to middle 70s Saturday. A warm up follows Sunday through midweek, summer temperatures return with highs in the low- 80s on Sunday. Then early next week highs return to the middle and upper 80s, along with dew points nearing 70F. It remains possible Monday and Tuesday could approach the low 90s, ensembles show +90F probabilites are between 30-50% across parts of southern New England. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 15Z TAF Update: Through Tonight: High confidence. Mainly VFR through the entire period; psbl brief MVFR visby in moderate SHRA for PVD and Cape airports thru 17z. Should then be generally dry thru at least 22z, before more spotty showers move in from eastern NY into western airports. These spotty showers then trend to dry 04-07z Fri. NE to E winds around 10 kt thru this evening. Friday: Moderate Confidence. VFR. Periods of showers are possible, leading to MVFR conditions though confidence is lower in exact location and timing. East wind becomes east/southeast 10-12 knots with gusts to 20 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Monday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Friday: High Confidence. Weak cold front approaches from the north, increasing clouds and a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Today and Tonight: Northeast winds 15 knots, gusts of 22 to 25 knots are possible, with seas on the southern waters 3 to 4 feet with southern outer most waters nearing 5 feet. Opt`d no Small Craft Advisory given the marginal conditions. Friday: East to southeast winds 15 knots with gusts nearing 25 knots and seas building 4-5 feet across the southern waters and 2 to 4 feet across the eastern waters. Likely will need a Small Craft Advisory during this period. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dooley NEAR TERM...Dooley SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...Dooley AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley MARINE...Loconto/Dooley