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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 061154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. SEVERAL WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
7 AM UPDATE...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OCEAN
EFFECT CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT ARE NOW
DIMINISHING AND THE LAST OF THEM SHOULD BE GONE BY 15Z/10 AM.

ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER BUT THE
FAIR AND COLD FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER YET CHILLY TEMPS. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL
ONLY RISE TO THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A MORE NNE WIND ALONG THE COAST. THIS NNE MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CAPE AND SE COASTAL PLAIN REGION...THIS IS ALSO NOTED
IN CROSS SECTIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
ANOTHER CLEAR...CALM NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
DOMINATE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER MODELS DO
INDICATE A SUBSTANCE INVERSION SETTING UP TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
FAIRLY DRY SO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG SEEMS LOW...BUT IT
MAY BE THE CASE WHERE THE VALLEY ARE COOLER THEN THE HILLS.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME
SITES DROPPING BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS AN OCEAN STORM
BEGINS TO HEAD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TREND OF THIS SYSTEM
HAS MOVED JUST SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISLANDS
TO SEE SOME PRECIP. THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR 850 MB TEMPS TO JUMP
FROM -8C TO 0C. DUE TO THE STRONG WAA...A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SOUTHERLY TREND RESULTING
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THIS IS EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT 950 TO 925
MB RH FIELDS. REGARDLESS OF THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE WARM TEMPS
WILL BE MOST WELCOMED WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40F.
THIS IS AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... FLAT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...EACH WITH THEIR OWN SETS OF SHORTWAVES.  ONE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CARRIES LOTS OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
THAT UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK AND ATTEMPT TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS.

MODEL PREFERENCES...MOST WEATHER IN THIS FLOW WILL BE DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. THIS
SUPPORTS USING A BLEND OF MODEL DATA. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
APPROACHING SYSTEM NEXT MIDWEEK...THE BLEND HELPED SLOW THE ONSET A
LITTLE.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... OFFSHORE STORM DRIVEN BY THE MOIST SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT TO SUPPORT
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...BUT UPPER JET
SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BOTH REMAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE. COULD CLIP NANTUCKET AND THE VINEYARD FRIDAY NIGHT BUT LOW
PROBABILITY OF THIS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SWING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  LIMITED MOISTURE
AND UPPER SUPPORT SO JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS
PASSAGE.  TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. TEMPS ALOFT COOL ABOUT
10C...SO MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 30S.  THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MILDER AIR WORKS IN...SUPPORTED BY
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL AGAIN MEAN CLOUDS. THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE EXPECT
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER
TUESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE/LIMITED PCPN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AS NOTED ABOVE...UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
AND PHASES THE DISTURBANCES OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH THE MOISTURE
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM.  THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
STORMY WEATHER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF RACES JUST SUCH A
STORM THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY...THE GFS WAITS UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR LATER.  WE WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SPREAD OF TIMING FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS GENERATES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. COULD SEE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS SOUTH AND EAST OF 95 CORRIDOR THANKS TO TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WHERE THIS HAPPENS...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...VFR TO START...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

MAINLY VFR.  AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR GUSTY N/NE WINDS AOA
25KTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BUILD THE SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT
OFFSHORE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS WHICH COULD DROP VSBYS LOCALLY BELOW 3SM.

MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON WATERS NEAR
MERRIMACK RIVER...CAPE ANN AND CAPE COD...WITH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY ELSEWHERE.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER WATERS.

OCEAN STORM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE SEAS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. SCA NOT
EXPECT ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL VARY AROUND 5
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS MOST OF THE PERIOD...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
     008>011.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN