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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 020222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
921 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO BRING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MON NIGHT/TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL PUSH IN WED AND THU. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...THEN PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WORKS IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
920 PM UPDATE...

***PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
  RUSH HOUR AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST***

THE LAST OF THE STEADY RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALREADY EXITING THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSISTING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE...A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO EVENTUALLY FALL
TO FREEZING OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW.  GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.  A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.  THE SECONDARY CONCERN
WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS IN BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURES MONDAY.
THE FIRST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MARITIMES...THE
OTHER WILL BE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS SHOULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
OF MA DURING THE MORNING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
RI AND SOUTHEAST MA DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH DURING LATE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE RAIN
SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
* DRY AND MILDER WED INTO THU WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
* COLD FRONT MAY BRING PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT-FRI...THEN
  COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES FROM BROAD TROUGHING TO AN EVENTUAL
CUTOFF H5 LOW BUT WELL E OF NEW ENGLAND TUE-WED. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BROAD RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST AS WELL AS A SURGE OF SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS.
WITH TWO LARGE CUTOFF LOWS SPINNING ACROSS CANADA...COLD AIR APPEARS
TO MIGRATE S AND E WHILE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO...AFTER BRIEF WARMUP...APPEARS ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SAT/NEXT
SUN...FOR NOW.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...BACK EDGE OF PRECIP LINGER ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AS LOW
PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS GOING THERE...THOUGH SHOULD BE ENDING FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. LEFTOVER CLOUDS SHOULD START
TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 40S.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE STEADILY CROSSES THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON
WED...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT APPROACHES WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS S NH/N
CENTRAL AND NW MA TO BEGIN EARLY WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S EARLY WILL RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THU INTO THU NIGHT AS IT RUNS CLOSE TO PARALLEL TO THE W-SW UPPER
FLOW. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVING ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF S NH AS TEMPS TRY TO FALL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS TRY TO MOVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ELONGATED UPPER FLOW THAT MAY TRY TO FLATTEN OUT AS UPPER CUTOFF
LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DOES LOOK LIKE PERIOD OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT...BUT MORE QUESTIONS AS TO PTYPE DURING THE
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW...HAVE TENDED TO DRY
THINGS OUT DURING SAT BUT WILL TURN COLDER ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW CIGS TO DROP TO IFR WITH BRIEF
LIFR MAINLY ALONG E COAST. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE
USUAL LOCATIONS...WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR VSBYS. PROBLEM
WITH TIMING LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD HELP IN
RAISING THE CIGS/VSBYS. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR
ACROSS E MA/RI INTO S NH.

FOR N CT/W MA...IFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS TO START. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL AREAS.
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO START THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN MA.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CONDITIONS
MOST LIKELY TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A RAIN
SHOWER WILL EXIST.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. FOG
COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IF OFFSHORE WIND DO NOT DEVELOP AS
STRONGLY AS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS. LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS WOULD
RESULT OTHERWISE. CIGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET CLOSE TO TERMINAL NOW.
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE LOWER CIGS WILL IMPACT KBOS THIS EVENING.
ALSO SPED UP TIMING FOR LOWER CIGS TO ARRIVE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOP FROM W-E WED NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR-IFR IN SCT SHOWERS. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA BOTH LATE
WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF S NH POSSIBLY INTO
N CENTRAL AND NW MA.

FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS PRECIP BEGINS TO MIX AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS S NH/N MA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHICH COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN STORMS PASSES WELL SE
OF NANTUCKET...BUT WILL STILL SEE NE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD...UP TO 5-8 FT MAINLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS BACK TO NW AND START TO DIMINISH. MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...THOUGH
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY
LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE HIGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN 11.9
HIGH TIDE IN BOSTON. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCEAN STORM
WILL INTENSIFY TOO FAR EAST AND TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND POCKETS
OF VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MA COAST STILL
EXISTS GIVEN THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. IN ADDITION...MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DURING THE TUESDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE OCEAN SIDE AND THE EAST SHORE OF
NANTUCKET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF