Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 181904 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 304 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid conditions are expected Tuesday, with a risk of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier weather will follow mid to late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Quiet, winds turning light, clear conditions. A very low risk for patchy fog given dewpoints at max heating earlier today ranged around the 40s.Lows overnight are expected to be in the 50s. Can not rule out a spot location dropping down into the upper 40s for lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday... High pressure shifts E over the Gulf of ME yields a SE flow gusting upwards of 20 mph at times. Will be breezy along the shores for any beachgoers. Highs into the mid to upper 80s across the interior, but cooler along the coast with onshore winds. Quiet weather overall. Sunday Night... Continued quiet weather. Despite slightly higher dewpoints during the day with onshore flow, overnight lows will remain mild. Still thinking a very low risk for any patchy fog. Winds turning more S will still be a bit breezy with gusts 10 to 15 mph especially over the high terrain and coastline of S New England.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Highlights... * More humid weather expected Tuesday * Showers and thunderstorms likely sometime Tue into Tue night * Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday Overview...Starting to see some potential changes in the pattern towards the end of next week. Three main concerns during this long term period. Low pressure developing south of southern New England Monday, showers and thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday, and a potential coastal storm at the end of next week. Low pressure...The models have been more consistent with the development of low pressure south of the region Monday. However, in their consistency, they are also keeping said low from having much, if any, impact on southern New England. Perhaps some swell on the ocean waters and clouds on Nantucket. Otherwise, one of the warmest days of the week expected with temperatures well into the 80s. Cold front...Low pressure moves through Quebec bringing a cold front through southern New England. There are still some uncertainties regarding the timing of the front, with the ECMWF quickest and the GFS slowest. While showers are likely with the front regardless of the timing, if the front comes through during the peak heating hours of the afternoon we could see some thunderstorms. At this point, the 12Z models are not indicating much, if any, instability, so will not have any mention of thunder in the forecast at this time. Coastal storm...Both the GFS and the ECMWF operational models have a low pressure system moving off the mid-Atlantic coast and passing over or just southeast of the 40/70 benchmark on Friday. The EPS ensemble mean shows barely a bump in the high pressure over the northern Atlantic during this time while the GEFS have a bit more of an indication that there`s some support for the operational model. All that to say, confidence is low for this period of the forecast. Should the operational models verify, we`re looking at a cloudy, wet, cool day Friday. But this is far from certain. Just something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures and dry weather rule the forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. VFR. Light winds overnight turning S/SE into Sunday. Breezy at times during the day with gusts up to 20 kts. Low risk MVFR-IFR patchy fog. SCT mid to high clouds. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. VFR conditions. Light and variable winds. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Wednesday and Thursday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. Good boating weather. Winds turning out of the S/SE into Sunday with the potential for 20 kt gusts during the day. Seas could get a bit choppy with waves up to 5 feet over the E waters. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating weather is expected. Winds and seas gradually increase Monday but should remain below SCA criteria. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the coastal waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Winds look to remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on the outer waters. Thursday...High confidence. Mainly quiet boating weather is expected.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/Sipprell NEAR TERM...Sipprell SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...RLG/Sipprell MARINE...RLG/Sipprell

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