Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 231840 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY... BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WET-WEATHER TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA PRIOR TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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230 PM UPDATE... CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING BACK AROUND TO W-SW AT SOME LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. STILL NOTING SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO WORK IN...READINGS SHOULD RISE A FEW MORE DEGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR TERM FORECAST UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY SO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S. WARMUP STARTS SUN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. MODEL 2M TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO 70S OR AROUND 80 AWAY FROM S COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD IN 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - LOOKING GOOD FOR MEMORIAL DAY - WET-WX CHANCES ACROSS N/W-PORTIONS OF THE NE CONUS THRU THE WEEK - WARM AND MUGGY PATTERN EVOLVING - THE RETURN OF AN ACTIVE WET-WEATHER PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND */ DISCUSSION... LONG-TERM PATTERN MORE APPARENT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. RIDGE ENHANCES OVER THE E-CONUS AHEAD OF AN OPEN- WAVE W-CONUS TROUGH. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH MAINTAINED THE LOW-TO MID- LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW UP AGAINST THE N-CANADA VORTEX IS KEPT N/W OF S NEW ENGLAND THRU WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES PROVIDING FORCING OF SW-ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY-AIR BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AFFIRMED FOR S NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A WARM-MUGGY-DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK PRIOR TO THE RIDGE ERODING UP AGAINST THE CUT-OFF RETROGRADING LOW THROUGH THE NW-ATLANTIC. WITH THE RIDGE ERODING IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND CONVERGENT FLOW CAN SLIP SOUTHWARD PUTTING S NEW ENGLAND IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POP-CHANCES N/W KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY. STEERING FLOW MAINLY W/SW. S-FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAN WITH MUGGY UNSEASONABLY-WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEK. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF MARINE STRATUS/FOG AS S-FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR N ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS. FOCUS ON THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. WILL HINT AT A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR. FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z-23Z THEN SHOULD DIMINISH MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOWEST CIGS MAINLY N/W. SW-WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH IFR- LIFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ACROSS THE S/SE-COAST OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 2 PM UPDATE... HAVE TAKEN DOWN SMALL CRAFTS FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW CRITERIA. LIGHTER SW FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS SUN WHICH MAY REACH SCA...ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SW-FETCH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS ESP ALONG THE SHORES AND INNER-WATERS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET MOSTLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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W-NW WINDS GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. MINIMUM RH DROPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH WE ARE FARTHER ALONG IN GREENUP...DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY. DRY PATTERN MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO SW FLOW AND INCREASING DEWPTS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/JWD NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT SHORT TERM...JWD LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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