Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 140311 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 1111 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore high pressure moves further offshore overnight. A weak low off the Carolina coast brings increasing moisture to our area, along with the potential for scattered showers, during late tonight and Saturday. Warm and humid conditions are expected Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. This setup will also result in scattered showers at times, but a washout is not expected. This front moves offshore late Sunday night or early Monday morning, followed by drier, less humid and cooler weather next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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1035 PM Update... Clouds have continued to lower and thicken this evening across most of the region, with breaks in the cloud across NE CT/W RI and along the immediate S coast as seen on latest IR satellite imagery. Nearest spotty showers noted near or off the central and S NJ coast which is moving slowly N. Could see some of the precip work into portions of N CT/RI/S coastal MA after 06Z. Timing from the 7 PM update looks pretty good, so held onto it. Only big change was to bring more clouds in. With the mainly cloudy skies, expect temps to remain milder than previously forecast, generally holding in the 50s though a few spots across the E slopes of the Berkshires may fall to the upper 40s. Generally light E-SE or calm winds in place through the remainder of the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday... Expect better lift and low level moisture feeding up the coast as high pressure sits well E of the eastern seaboard and a slow moving cold front remains well W of the region. So, should see scattered showers across most of the region with the best shot across N CT/RI into SE Mass, with lower chances across the Route 2 region of N Mass. QPF forecast suggests up to 0.2 to 0.3 inches possible during the day across portions of RI into SE Mass where best low level moisture on SW winds occurs. With the SW winds in place, warm air advection as H925 temps rise to +16C to +18C and H85 temps up to +12C to +13C. So, expect temps to top off in the mid-upper 60s across the higher inland terrain to around 70 across the CT valley and coastal plain. May see some wind gusts up to around 20-25 mph along S coastal areas. Saturday night... Short range models signaling the moisture should shift E as mid level winds back to W-SW during the night. Will see best shot for scattered showers during the evening, then should dry out across western areas around or after midnight. May see some precip linger through the night across parts of E Mass and RI. With continued SW winds in place, will be a rather mild night. Readings forecast to bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. May see lows close to record high mins at some of our four long term climate sites. See Climate section below for details.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Highlights... * Much warmer than normal and humid Sunday * Scattered showers Sunday morning, then again Sunday night * Dry weather much of next week but chilly Monday night/Tuesday A broad mid level trough is expected to move across southern New England early next week, followed by a slowly building ridge the rest of next week. Expecting near to slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday, followed by above normal temperatures through the end of the work week. Our dry weather pattern should continue most of next week. The only real chance we have for precipitation will be with the passage of a cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered showers could arrive west of the Worcester hills during the afternoon, but are more likely Sunday evening. Not a lot of dynamics to work with, so expecting showers to diminish in coverage as they move east. The only other concern in this period will be the potential for strong gusty winds Sunday and Sunday night as this cold front approaches, then moves through our region. With most trees still having leaves on them, gusts could be strong enough to result in isolated wind damage. Greatest risk would be across MA, which will be closer to the core of a low level jet. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence thru 00Z this evening, then moderate confidence. Overnight...Low end VFR to MVFR CIGS across most areas. Patchy MVFR vsbys in fog after 05Z-06Z. Localized IFR conditions in stratus/fog late. Saturday...MVFR CIGS. Scattered showers expected. Saturday night...MVFR with IFR possible. Scattered showers and patchy fog. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR timing the biggest issue. Slowed the arrival of the lower clouds to about 05-06Z. Chance for showers late tonight and during Sat. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR timing the biggest issue. Slowed the arrival of the lower clouds to about 05-06Z. Chance for showers late tonight and during Sat. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High confidence, except moderate confidence early Sunday morning and Sunday night. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible in the morning. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Patchy FG. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Saturday Night/... Overnight and Saturday...Moderate to high confidence. Seas of 4 to 5 ft will linger across the waters S of RI. Seas will build somewhat across the southern coastal waters during Saturday. Small Craft headlines have been extended for this area. There is a chance SCA headlines may need to be expanded for Sat within RI/BI Sounds and the waters south of Nantucket. Elsewhere, winds/seas are expected to be below SCA thresholds. Also, visibility may lower in patchy fog and scattered showers after midnight tonight through Saturday. Saturday night...Moderate confidence. Poor vsbys in areas of showers/drizzle and fog. SCA headlines for seas may be needed for the southern outer coastal waters, and the outer coastal waters east of Cape Cod. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High confidence, except some uncertainty how strong southwest winds become Sun afternoon and evening. Sunday...Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Sunday Night...Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday...Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Monday Night...Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Tuesday...Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night...Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday...Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Min temperatures Saturday night could be rather close the record maximum low temperatures for our four long term climate sites. October 15 Record maximum low temperatures Boston 64/1954 Worcester 64/1954 Hartford 63/2014 Providence 63/2014
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/NMB NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/EVT/NMB MARINE...Belk/EVT/NMB CLIMATE...Staff

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