Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 171757 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 157 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS RI AND SE MA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER NOW APPEARS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS HAS REALLY LIMITED THE EXTENT OF THESE. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP MAINLY ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATER. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE 60S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS...SB CAPE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING OFFSHORE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT...DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WILL PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE CITIES WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. A COOL AUTUMN LIKE NIGHT EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW OF THE GOOD RADIATORS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPS ON TUES/WED * DIURNAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK * BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER NEXT WEEKEND OVERVIEW... MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. BLOCKINESS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA AND GREENLAND ALLOW FOR THE `BERMUDA HIGH` AND SOUTHEAST RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION...AND A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AN MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DIPS BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. DETAILS... TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AM... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT GREENLAND BLOCK...APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE PRECIP SHIELD COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND PERHAPS THE SOUTH COAST...SO KEPT LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WED WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...APPEARS A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE MAY SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FRIDAY AND BEYOND... FIRST GLANCE LOOK LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR COLD CORE SYSTEMS OR PERHAPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO RI AND EASTERN MA. LOW RISK OF A FEW -TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND RI. COLD FRONT BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION AROUND 23Z...ENDING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM. TONIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A LIGHT NW WIND. MONDAY....VFR AND DRY WEATHER. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE EASTERN MA COASTLINE INCLUDING KBOS. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. LOW RISK OF ISOLATED T-STORM SOUTH OF LOGAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN SCT SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR EXCEPT FOR ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS WHERE MVFR IS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT VICINITY OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TSTM. TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO WNW 10 TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS AND WIND GUSTS TO INCREASE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF WE WILL REACH 5 FT SEAS OR 25 KTS. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE JUST SHY...NEAR 20 KTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN

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