Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 261407 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1007 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COOLER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TODAY ALONG WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DRY BUT COOL WEATHER PREVAILS INTO MON THEN RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT. MUCH CHILLIER WEATHER EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ITS FAR FROM A CERTAINTY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1000 AM UPDATE... SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE WESTERLY WINDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL HILLS. THESE CLOUDS WILL FILL IN LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING FOR TODAY. ISO SHOWERS ACROSS UPSTATE NY ARE STARTING TO MAKE THERE WAY INTO WESTERN MA AND CT. STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SO EITHER VIRGA OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. BETTER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO THE CHANCE FOR ISO TO SCT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND HAVE REFLECTED THAT WITHIN THE FORECAST. ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR TWEAKS...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... INITIALLY WILL HAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LOTS OF CU/STRATO-CU WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY. IN FACT ALL MODEL GUID HAS 925 MB - 700 MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM BY 18Z. FURTHERMORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH TIME. THUS MOST CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WENT A BIT ABOVE GUID AND INCLUDING LOW CHANCE POPS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY /ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER/ ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OR PERHAPS CLOUD FOR A TIME. IN ADDITION A BRISK WEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL ADD TO THE COOL CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT... DRY BUT CHILLY BEHIND SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL YIELD A CHILLY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S...THE BLYR WILL NOT DECOUPLE SO EXPECT A MODEST WEST WIND TO PROVIDE A BIT OF WIND CHILL. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND QUITE GUSTY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MONDAY... CHILLY START TO THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND. HOWEVER GOOD HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES PUSHES EASTWARD. WHILE NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL WARMING TAKES PLACE...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE MU50S ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND LATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD AFTERNOON/S TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED EVENING BUT NOT A WASHOUT * MAINLY DRY AND COOLER ON THU * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER FRI INTO SAT * LOW CONFIDENCE IF A STORM AFFECTS THE REGION FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND DETAILS... MONDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF DOWNTOWN PROVIDENCE/BOSTON. THE ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS A BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. IT COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF IT COMES IN EARLY. TUESDAY... WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND RISING HEIGHT FIELDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MILDEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED INTO WED EVENING...BUT FAR FROM A WASHOUT AND MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. THURSDAY... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... ANOMALOUS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...BY SATURDAY HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHAT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IS WHETHER OR NOT A SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE POTENCY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SOME MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TIMING AND WE COULD JUST AS EASILY END UP WITH A WEAK LOW PASSING WELL EAST OF THE REGION WILL LITTLE FANFARE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD IN POSSIBLE OUTCOMES...SO WILL JUST NEED TO KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS BKN040-060. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. TONIGHT... ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 15-25 KT. MONDAY... VFR BUT WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...THEN SUBSIDE LATE. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MON NIGHT AND TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WED...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THU...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY... TWO FRONTAL PASSAGES TODAY. FIRST COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING WNW 20-30 KT. NOT MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SECOND FRONT...MORE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR. THIS SECOND SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW END GALES /35 KT/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT... WNW GALES ON SOUTHERN WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. MONDAY... WNW WINDS 20-30 KT DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFT OVER SCA WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SCA SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA SEAS SHOULD AT LEAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236- 250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA

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