Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 172313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
713 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

Weak high pressure remains in control through Monday, resulting in
cool nights and warm afternoons along with low humidity. More humid
conditions are expected Tue with a risk of showers and thunderstorms
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cooler and drier weather will
follow mid to late next week.


715 PM Update...Not much to change in the forecast. There are a
few showers moving southeastward from New Hampshire that may pass
through Essex County in the next couple of hours. Therefore, have
added some slight chance PoPs to the forecast through 10 PM.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Previous discussion...

Another gorgeous evening ahead with high pressure overhead. Temps
around 80 inland and 70s closer to the coast will fall noticeably
toward sunset given the dry airmass in place (dew pts in the 40s)
and light winds.

Scattered to broken diurnal clouds will also erode as sunset
approaches and gives way to mostly clear conditions.

The combination of mostly clear skies and light winds may result in
some patchy fog toward daybreak but should be limited in areal
coverage given low dew pts.

As for forecast mins, followed a blend of the MOS data sets given
the cooler guid seems more reasonable in this radiational cooling


Saturday...More of the same with high pres overhead providing
plenty of subsidence yielding dry weather. Temps similar to today
with highs 80-85 inland to 70s closer to the coast including Cape
Cod and Islands as afternoon seabreezes develop. Max temps were
derived from a model blend and then added 2-3 degs given blyr
deepening beyond 850 mb. Comfortable with dew pts in the 40s.

Sat night...Another real nice evening with light winds/dry
weather and temps cooling off given dry airmass and high pres
remaining overhead. Followed the cooler mos temps given the
radiational cooling conditions.


* Mild to warm days & cool nights through Monday
* More humid weather expected Tuesday
* Showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday and Tuesday night
* Cooler and drier weather returns by Thursday

Overview...Quite the quiet weather period for southern New England
into next week.  While there remains some uncertainty in the models
with regards to the low pressure system developing south of the area
over the ocean, the models are more consistent in keeping this
system weaker and farther south of New England.  The ECMWF and it`s
ensemble mean are the strongest/farthest to the north, while the GFS
and it`s ensemble mean are the weakest/farthest to the south so
aiming for a blend of solutions that will keep it far enough south
of New England to limit any impact on our weather, at least over
land.  High pressure dominates our forecast Sunday and Monday. The
one weather maker for us will be a frontal system that moves through
late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This will likely produce at least
some light precip, and depending on the timing of the front with
peak heating, etc could result in showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures...High confidence.

Mild to even hot temperatures continue Sunday and Monday, with the
first day of summer the warmest day of the forecast with highs in
the mid 80s to even 90 possible. Tuesday will be a tad cooler but
with higher humidity, then more seasonable weather returns mid-week

Precipitation...High confidence, except Tuesday-Wednesday. Moderate
confidence for that period.

Expect a fairly dry forecast for much of the period. Only real
chance for any precipitation is with the cold frontal passage on
Tuesday. There`s some indication in the ECMWF that a secondary front
will bring a few more showers on Wednesday, but confidence is not


Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Thru Sat night...High confidence.

VFR this period along with dry weather. Low risk of brief MVFR in
patchy late night/early morning fog. Light winds with afternoon
sea breezes for coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Sunday through Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions and dry
weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
night may result in brief periods of MVFR conditions.

Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions.


Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Nice boating weather with light/variable winds and fairly tranquil
seas. dry weather and good vsby too.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...High Confidence.

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected. Winds and seas gradually increase Monday but should
remain below SCA criteria.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.




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