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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBOX 161400 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1000 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRY...WARM AND WINDY TODAY INCREASING THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL PUSH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --10 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AT 10 AM SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ALREADY ACROSS THE HILLY TERRAIN. AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO MIX DOWN THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 80 TODAY THESE WARM TEMPS WILL FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY WHICH ARE IN THE U80S AND L90S IN 1932/1951/1965. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------- TODAY... ANTICIPATING WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO H7-8 WILL ALLOW THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. SEE THE MARINE SECTION OF THE AFD CONCERNING THE PLAUSIBILITY OF NEAR-SHORE HAZARDS. WILL ALSO SEE THE MIX-DOWN OF DRIER AIR RESULTING IN SURFACE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORE WITH SEA-BREEZES.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT... WINDS RELAXING. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEHIND WHICH A COOLER AIRMASS SHALL FILTER IN A THE MID- LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND COUPLED WITH SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...FEEL EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WARMER CLOSER TO SHORE. FRIDAY... A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WILL SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION. SEA BREEZES LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORE. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT /H85 TEMPERATURES +2-4C/ HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW COUPLED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL NET AN EVENING OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRESENT FORECASTED LOWS RANGE AROUND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S /WARMER CLOSER TO SHORES/. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EVALUATE TOWARDS THE ISSUANCE OF FROST HEADLINES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * TEMPS...SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY WARMER/HUMID NEXT WEEK * MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH PATTERN POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... MAIN WEATHER FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW/NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL DELIVER MARITIME HIGH PRES TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE WITH MARITIME CLOSED LOW MOVING SEAWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMING TRENDING FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS HERE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEW ENGLAND AMONG DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES GEFS AND ECENS. THEREFORE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM AN EVEN BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR MOS FIELDS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PATTERN SUPPORTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER DECIDED TO UNDERCUT METNAM AND MAVMOS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE. THEN NEXT WEEK MODELS AGREE ON EAST COAST RIDGING BUT THEN DIFFER ON HOW THIS RIDGE WILL ERODE/DEAMPLIFY BASED ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE HERE AND NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. TEMPS WERE DERIVED FROM HPC GUID AND IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED MOS. DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS... THIS WEEKEND... COOLER AS MARITIME HIGH PRES DESCENDS UPON EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SAT LOOKS WARMER THAN SUN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER SAT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT /-20C AT 500MB/ AND STRONG-HIGH MID MAY SUN ANGLE AIDING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALSO SUNDAY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH IN RESPONSE TO RETURN FLOW WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH MARITIME HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THUS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 DEGS TUE/WED. WARM DAYS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MILD NIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEW PTS. WEATHER LOOKS DRY MON BUT POSSIBLY BECOMING SHOWERY TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 7 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS CONTINUES TO ERODE RAPIDLY AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ---------------------------------------------------------------- SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N/NW THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE OF FOG IMPACTS. N/NW WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BUT DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR AND DRY WEATHER. LOCAL MVFR AND/OR IFR IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY NOT PERFECTLY REFLECT THIS OUTCOME...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACCORDINGLY WITH THE THOUGHT IN MIND OF THE NICE DAY ENCOURAGING MORE RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES OUT ON THE WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES. SUCH THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN. ELSEWHERE...ALONG THE OUTER WATERS...REMNANT SWELL AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. HAZARDS AND ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY... DROPPING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NICE BOATING WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THUS DRY WEATHER/LIGHT WINDS/SMALL WIND WAVES AND GOOD VSBY SHOULD PREVAIL. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR TODAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO MINIMUMS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THOUGH GREEN-UP IS UNDERWAY...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS AS THERE IS A RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED TO NOT BURN TODAY. AFTER COMMUNICATING WITH STATE AGENCIES...IT WAS AGREED UPON THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /RATHER THAN RED FLAG WARNINGS/ OUTLINING THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE AROUND 40 PERCENT WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THRESHOLD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-236-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL FIRE WEATHER...
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