Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 310758 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 358 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ***A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF I-95*** A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILLS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPACT...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL COMBINED WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -16C IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS. HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM. WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS SOMETIMES THESE COLD POOLS CAN OVER PERFORM...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE WEATHER TO GENERALLY REMAIN DRY SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AS THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF THE FORCING. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S. FRIDAY... A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95. SHEAR IS LESS THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD...SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THIS ALLOWS A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST TO SHIFT WEST OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND IN THE TIMING SO THIS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY...SUNDAY...OR A PORTION OF BOTH DAYS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95 WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST MA/SOUTHWEST NH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG

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