Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 222015 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 415 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY GRAZE SE NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND AND SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING MOCLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE INTERIOR...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. ISOLD FROST POSSIBLE IN THE NW MA AND SW NH BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROST HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY... HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB. 925 MB TEMPS 10-11C WHICH SUPPORTS TEMPS 65-70 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS LINE WITH 2M TEMPS. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS HINTING A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH WITH A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS MINS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * THE 1ST WEEK OF AUTUMN WILL FEATURE MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD WARMTH NEXT WEEKEND * HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD DETAILS... WEDNESDAY... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SO COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND NO THE EASTERN MA COAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 60S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK UP THE COAST. IN ADDITION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWEST AXIS OF QPF SHIELD. NONETHELESS...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATE AT LEAST A RISK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WHETHER OR NOT THIS COMES TO FRUITION...CERTAINLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. AGAIN...WARMEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR. FRI/SAT AND SUN... SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM OVER NEW ENGLAND TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS A WARMER WNW LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S FRI AND THEN PUSHING 80 OR SO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY INCLUDE 9/27... BOS...86...1998 BDL...88...1998 PVD...86...1998 ORH...85...1933 GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE ALONG WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE GIVEN WNW LOW LEVEL LAND TRAJECTORY. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. N/NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON... DIMINISHING TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW PROB OF A SEABREEZE TUE AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR EACH DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE A LOW RISK OF MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE ISLANDS FROM WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE HERE. TUE AND TUE NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT DURING TUE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE... LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER OR NEAR THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TOO. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020>024. NH...NONE. RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230- 236-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...KJC/FRANK MARINE...KJC/FRANK

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