Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 251846 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 146 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST. DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SNOW BUT THAT IS FAR AWAY AT THIS POINT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 115 PM UPDATE... CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY CROSSED THE REGION BY MIDDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DIURNAL STRATOCU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID AND OUTER CAPE...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. ALSO NOTING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS CROSSING N CT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE THOSE TEND TO DISSIPATE BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO RI. TEMPS TENDING TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NOTING SOME W GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT KORH AND AROUND 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY AND INTO NE MA AT 18Z. AS SHOWER MOVED THROUGH KBDL...GUST REPORTED UP TO 36 KT AT 1746Z. WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BRISK CONDITIONS. HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH INTO SNE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W MA. GUSTY W WINDS DURING THE EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. FRIDAY... HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLC COAST WITH MILD WESTERLY FLOW INTO NEW ENG. EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * REMAINING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY * CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY * TURNING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AROUND TUESDAY BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI NIGHT AND SETTLES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SAT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AFTERNOON WITH ECMWF COOLER THAN GFS...WITH 3C VS. 6C AT 925 MB. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SW FLOW ALOFT...AM OPTING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS REACHING 50 TO 55 SAT AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY...FROM NW TO SE. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION BUT MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURE. WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT OF IS THAT COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. AFTER ALL...IT WILL BE THE END OF DECEMBER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S...COULD EVEN SEE SOME UPPER TEENS IN NORTHWEST MA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN BY TUESDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING BY NIGHTFALL. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS WHICH SUPPRESS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAVE US DRY. THE CANADIAN MODEL ALSO AGREES THAT THE LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT HAS A MUCH BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH...SUCH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES. CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEADS ONE NOT TO DISMISS THIS SYSTEM QUITE YET. A FEW OF THE GEFS MEMBERS HAVE LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH...OFF THE NJ COAST OR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. YET OTHER MEMBERS HAVE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND NO LOW AT ALL. HENCE...A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT SKIES COULD BECOME CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A RESULT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF SNOW FOR OUR REGION TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY BUT LEAN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WED LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY FROM 30 TO 35. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH 20Z. W-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOW PROB OF 40 KT GUSTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF N AND W MA. TONIGHT...VFR. W WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT EARLY...HIGHEST ALONG COAST...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR MONDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SW WINDS TO VEER TO W-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 KT. GALES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT SMALL CRAFTS FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY. TONIGHT...NEAR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS IN THE EVENING... OTHERWISE SCA WIND GUSTS WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...DIMINISHING WIND BELOW SCA WITH SUBSIDING SEAS. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SEAS MAY STILL BE NEAR 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRI NIGHT BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY SAT. SW TO W WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES. SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MONDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT NW TO N WINDS EXPECTED. SEAS BELOW 3 FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT WINDS COULD BECOME NE LATE AT NIGHT IF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COME FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. && .CLIMATE... UPDATE...JUST GOT WORD THAT A RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY IN MILTON MA. THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 61 DEGREES SETTING THE RECORD FOR DECEMBER 24. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 58 DEGREES SET IN 1996. THIS MORNING/S HIGH SO FAR IS 61...JUST MISSING THE RECORD OF 62 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1889. NOTE...BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY/S RECORDS DAY BACK TO FEBRUARY 1 OF 1885. WITH MILD AIR WORKING UP THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ONE OF OUR FOUR LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES DID SET RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE... BOS...46 AT 1101 PM BDL...43 AT 1159 PM ORH...53 AT 1159 PM PVD...64 AT 1118 PM...SETS RECORD FOR DATE /PREV 60 SET IN 1990/ HIGH TEMPS SO FAR TODAY ALONG WITH THE RECORDS... BOS...59 AT 444 AM /RECORD 65 IN 1889/ BDL...56 AT 641 AM /RECORD 64 IN 1964/ ORH...59 AT 547 AM /RECORD 60 IN 1964/ PVD...63 AT 1215 AM...TIES RECORD FOR DATE WITH 1964 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237- 251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ230-236. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/GAF NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...GAF AVIATION...EVT/GAF MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF CLIMATE...EVT

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