Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 250825 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 425 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS SUNDAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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*** SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY *** TODAY... WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BLYR MIXING EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE AROUND +10C. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL EVEN MILDER GIVEN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT WARM READINGS ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. TEMPS MAY FALL BACK A FEW DEGS HERE LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE OCEAN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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TONIGHT... IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS FROM 00Z/8PM TO 06Z/2AM ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE /06Z/ WNW WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION. SUNDAY... ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COLDER THAN SAT ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. POTENT TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES THRU THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION 925MB-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SHOULD YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH CLOUD COVER TO YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION GUSTY NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND COOL MON * REMAINING DRY BUT MILDER ON TUE * UNSEASONABLY MILD WED WITH SOME 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE * PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING * TURNING MUCH COOLER THU AND FRI DETAILS... SUNDAY NIGHT... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE WED NIGHT AND IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL BETWEEN 40 AND 45 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH WIND WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT. MONDAY... PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MIXING THAT WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE URBAN CENTERS. TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TUE ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10C AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A BRIEF BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO BE OF A SHORT DURATION IN A GIVEN LOCATION WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY THU INTO FRI BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S. A SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...LIKELY BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON TO START THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 2 AM UPDATE... TODAY...BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN MA AND RI AT 06Z/2AM...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE AROUND 14Z-15Z. THEREAFTER VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT TO MODEST W WIND BECOMING SW TOWARD 21Z-00Z. TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN QUICKLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH 00Z-06Z. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING BUT LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE BKN035-045 CATEGORY. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 00Z...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF MVFR/VFR CIGS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THRU SUNDAY. TODAY... MODEST NW WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SW TOWARD SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY TODAY. NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS. TONIGHT... COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS 03Z-06Z WITH WNW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA WATERS. SUNDAY... WNW WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT 20-30KT. LOW RISK OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF NEAR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER-WATERS. REGARDLESS...SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. MARGINAL SOUTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP BY WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-250-251-254.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/FRANK NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...NOCERA/FRANK MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK

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