Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 281048
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
648 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...
A CHILLY START THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED TO
AROUND 50F...IN FACT SPRINGFIELD FELL TO 49F! ANY PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR LEADING TO A GREAT DAY. ASIDE FOR
A FEW TWEAKS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE MARITIMES MAY BRING A BACK DOOR
FRONT BY TUES. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE SECOND-
HALF OF THE WEEK LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAIN.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MARITIME SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW...INCREASING THE RISK FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE RIDGE FINALLY SETS
UP...BUT DID LOWER THE NE MASS COAST A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUMMER RETURNS AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REALLY INCREASES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL REACHING AROUND 16-18C. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LOW DURING THE PERIOD THANKS TO THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIT OR MISS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF 20 KT GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS COULD SWITCH TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...DUNTEN


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