Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 012255
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT STALLING NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AT THIS
TIME WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEY HAVE
EXHIBITED SOME GUSTY WINDS THOUGH SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
TREE OR POWER LINE DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FORECAST IS GENERALLY
ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR A TSTM WILL QUICKLY END THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SNE TONIGHT BUT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST BUT THE COLUMN IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PT-MOSUNNY
SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ACK WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE S AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT
SEABREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AS WAVE OF LOW PRES TRACKS NEAR
THE BENCHMARK. BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF CAPE COD. HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW.
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY ON THE 4TH.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME TO ONE THAT IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL.  THIS IS IN SPITE OF THE FAIRLY ROBUST
RIDGES IN PLACE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH N OF THE
ANTILLES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOES TAKE ON A
LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES...IT IS NOT OVERLY
DEEP/SHARP.  THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA
HIGH TO BECOME THE DOMINANT PLAYER FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT A MUCH DEEPER NRN STREAM VORTEX WILL BE
IN PLAY...AND WILL TRANSITION THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE REGIME
ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.  THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS ON THE 4TH UNFORTUNATELY...BUT MORE ON THAT BELOW.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...IT/S NOT
JUST RIDGING...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OVERALL COLUMN IS RELATIVELY
DRY...WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES COULD BRING ABOUT MODEST LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
PRECIP CHANCES...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE A WASHOUT GIVEN HOW WEAK
THE WAVE IS AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUN JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP ER WAVE FORMS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
LANDS...A SECONDARY RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SE. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. BETTER CHANCES
FOR TEMPS INCHING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...THANKS TO MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE.

TOWARD MID WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BEGIN A SLIDE TO
THE E. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE IS MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS
WAVES...SO IT/S LIKELY A PERIOD OF WETTER AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
RETURN BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
MASS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER
ACK LATE IN THE DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE CAPE/ISLANDS. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR ACK POSSIBLY REACHING
THE S COAST AND CAPE COD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SAT...BUT
MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE. SEA BREEZES LIKELY MOST DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
PRODUCING SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE JET MOVES OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING FOR THE PROTECTED NEARSHORE
WATERS...BUT 5 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED OVER OPEN SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS SO SCA WILL PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY
ONSHORE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE S AND E OF ACK LATE IN THE DAY.

THU NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
NORTH. SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG S
OF CAPE COD AND ESPECIALLY S AND E OF ACK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY/RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...KJC/DOODY/RLG


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.