Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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774
FXUS61 KBOX 242258
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
658 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region.
Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest
temperatures inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...No major changes to the forecast at this time.
Mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 70s for much of the
area. Expect a quick drop off in temperatures after sunset as
dewpoints are in the 40s and winds are light. Made minor
adjustments to the temperatures to account for the latest trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Overnight...

Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s region-wide except
around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational
cooling conditions followed the cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m
temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across
the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW flow
aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast and
traces eastward, south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis
just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New
England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level
lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within
the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of
isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a
result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with
surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew
pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue
with a dry forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday
* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday

Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term
portion of the forecast.  Will use a blend of available guidance for
this forecast.  Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper
level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  A cold front will move through southern New England on
Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster)
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in
the Connecticut Valley Monday.  Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures return to
seasonable levels for the end of the week.

Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England.
There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder
with these showers.  Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends
to lead to more dry weather.  Not looking at any significant
precipitation through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence.

VFR with light and variable winds inland, then sea breezes along
the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR
toward daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Southeast winds will bend to the
south later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE Sat
morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/RLG
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG
MARINE...Nocera/RLG



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