Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 251756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY. MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1250 PM UPDATE...
CU BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENG AS EXPECTED. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SNE BUT EXPECT SCT-BKN CU TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE 850 MB
MOISTURE DEVELOPING BY 18Z. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST TEMPS...MAINLY
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN REACH THE MID 30S. BUT IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY AS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW TEMPS A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE SKIES SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
WORK IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN DEEP SNOW
PACK...TEMPS MAY DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  THEN THEY MAY LEVEL OFF A BIT DEPENDING ON HOW
THICK THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ENDS UP.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING
LOCATIONS.  MEANWHILE...IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

*  OCEAN EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE CAPE THURSDAY
*  HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
*  COLD FRONT BRINGS WINTRY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
*  ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO SUPPRESS
STORM TRACK BOTH TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS TO NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID AND LONG TERMS.
AO/NAO REMAIN PRIMARILY POSITIVE...SUGGESTING THAT THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...NOW NOTE A NEGATIVE SHIFT
IN THE PNA...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND MORE STRONGLY
INFLUENCE THE WX ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SUPPRESSES THE
FIRST COUPLE OF WAVES DIVING S FROM NRN QC BY STRETCHING THEM IN
THE FAST FLOW CREATED BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE S AND THE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER ERN CANADA. THIS PREVENTS THE RAPID DEEPENING OF MOST OF
THESE SYSTEMS IN THE WEEKEND...SOMETHING EVEN THE ECENS/GEFS SHOW
REASONABLE CLUSTERING ON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES START EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO JOIN THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH COULD BETTER FEATURE LOW
PRES EFFECTING THE REGION BEGINNING AS AN INSIDE RUNNER.

DETAILS...

THU AND FRI...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W ALONG WITH SUPPRESSED UPPER
LVL JET WILL KEEP STORM WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE IMPACT ON
SRN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOR CAPE COD ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LVL WAVE CATCHES UP AND H85 TEMPS DROP TO BELOW -12C.
TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY SO AS
OTHER DAYS THIS SEASON.

SAT AND SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL CRESTING SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
MID AND UPPER LVL TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW -10C UNTIL SUN...AT
WHICH POINT SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THEM TO REACH -6C OR
SO. THEREFORE...MINS FRI AND SAT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE NEGATIVE
TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THEN CLOSER TO MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
LOW PRES PASSING WILL TO THE N WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NOTING ENOUGH F-GEN WITH EVEN A
POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION. THEREFORE...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
LOW-MID LVLS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DYNAMIC
COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DIURNAL WARMING MON MORNING. QPF
VALUES REMAIN AT ISSUE GIVEN THAT SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION WHICH IS
FEATURED IN SOME MODELS BUT NOT OTHERS. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL TOTALS
COULD STAY BELOW OR JUST EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS.

TUE INTO WED...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON YET ANOTHER INSIDE RUNNER WHICH WILL
FORCE THE COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE FROM MON...TO SHIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT. OVERRUNNING SITUATION GIVEN THE DEEP SNOWPACK REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD AIR LOCKED IN WITH 1035 HIGH PRES NEAR
NEW BRUNSWICK SUGGEST P-TYPE ISSUES WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND HAS AN EVEN BETTER CONNECTION TO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAN DOES THE PREVIOUS SO THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. W WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

KBOS TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

KBDL TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE WED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR
IN LIGHT SNOW.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CAPE
COD TERMINALS IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS.

SAT AND SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN FROM W TO E
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU AND FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LEFTOVER AND LINGERING SWELL CAUSED BY LOW PRES MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...WHERE WAVES COULD REACH 5-6FT AT TIMES. WINDS
HOWEVER...OUT OF THE N...NE WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.

SAT AND SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY


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