Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 141929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

BLUSTERY S-WINDS. NEAR TO EXCEEDING WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND GUSTS
OF 45 MPH MAINLY BEING OBSERVED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD
WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ISOLATED THREAT
AS A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT WOULD LIKELY ADD LITTLE VALUE.
GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS INCLUDING
BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WAS A GOOD CALL.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE AND ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND
PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS
OFF OUR SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE
MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS
THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...

GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF
THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...

FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

TUESDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS
OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO
RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-
     237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/RLG
HYDROLOGY...



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