Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 242257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. DRY...COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRES IN CONTROL TONIGHT BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST A FEW CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS E NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO
MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S WITH LOW PROB OF A FEW UPPER 40S IN NW
MA AND SW NH. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
SFC HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH RISING HEIGHTS. MOSUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 14C BY 18Z. HIGH WILL REACH LOW
TO MID 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
SEABREEZES ARE LIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT...
MORE OF THE SAME WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
MILDER AS AIRMASS MODERATES WITH MINS RANGING FROM MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* COLD FRONT BRINGS LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
  AND EVENING
* DRY...COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  MAIN CONCERNS INCLUDE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR FRONT NEXT SUNDAY.  WHILE TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL DOES REMAIN A CONCERN...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
IT OUT TO SEA LONG BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE HUMIDITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPPRESSIVE...AFTER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...IT
WILL DEFINITELY BE FELT.  THESE WILL BE THE BEST BEACH DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH NO SEABREEZE EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DECENT INSTABILITY...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  TEMPERATURES START TO WARM AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOLER...WETTER
WEATHER. DURING THIS PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SHOULD PASS
WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA.  HOWEVER...IT MAY
GENERATE HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEACHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR...WITH THE ONLY CAVEAT BEING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. NE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG BOTH COASTS MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN THE USUAL SPOTS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S/SW MON.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING SEAS AS SWELL FROM TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL REACHES THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.  AT THIS
POINT AM ONLY LOOKING AT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON CRISTOBALS EVENTUAL TRACK.  MARINERS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THIS OFFICE AND THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG


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