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000
FXUS61 KBOX 140538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
138 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING MORE RAIN. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW
MOVES OUT TO SEA FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
*** MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING LIKELY INTO THE MORNING ACROSS
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

1 AM UPDATE...

FRONTOGENESIS BAND IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF ON THE PERIPHERY OF SFC
LOW PRES WHICH IS CURRENTLY JUST S OF E LONG ISLAND PER LATEST
MSAS OBSERVATIONS. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT GENERALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MASS PIKE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT E WITH TIME AS
THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. GIVEN GUIDANCE HAS SPED
UP THE TIMING OF THIS LOW AND THE RAIN BAND EXPECT IT TO MOVE OUT
OF THE SW NH AND EXTREME NW MA BY ABOUT 09Z-10Z THEN OUT OF THE
CENTRAL MA BY ABOUT 12Z. THEN DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN SITU IN THE E
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. STILL EXPECT SOME MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE
COMMUTE THOUGH. ADJUSTED TOWARD LATEST RAP/NAM TIMING WHICH ARE
BOTH HANDLING THE PRECIP ORIENTATION CURRENTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

415 PM UPDATE...

12Z MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND 15Z SREF ALL STRUGGLING
SIMULATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...DRY SLOT OVER
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...AND DEFORMATION PRECIP ACROSS NY-MA-VT-
NH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DEFORMATION PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS MID
LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES IN THIS DIRECTION. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
THIS TRANSFORM AS BAND ACROSS NY STATE SLIDING ESE. THEREFORE
PRECIP WILL MOVE BACK INTO CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING ANOTHER INCH TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
THUS A LOW RISK OF RAINFALL UP TO 3 INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS THIS
AREA. ELSEWHERE 1 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY
12Z FRI. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AS CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BRING MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS INTO FLOOD. SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

WINDS...
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH
SE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. AS LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF LI AND
PARALLEL TO 40N...WINDS GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS AFTER 00Z. THIS MAY FALL SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT PAST EVENTS DURING THE WARM SEASON HAVE
PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE/DOWN LIMBS FROM G35KT GIVEN FULLY LEAVED
TREES/SAILING EFFECT. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND BENCHMARK LOW MOVE SEAWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESS. SO EXPECTING MORNING RAIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND GIVE WAY
TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER WITH SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION ALONG WITH COLD
POOL ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...ANY SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE
SOME DESTABILIZATION. SO CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/LATE DAY SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...

EAST-FACING OCEAN BEACHES WILL BE AT THE GREATEST RISK OF HIGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY /AS SWELLS WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH THE EXIT OF THE
STORM/. SOUTH-FACING BEACHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE THREAT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOIST ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

  * COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
  * UNSETTLED BUT UNCERTAIN WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
THE MOST PART.  THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS EXHIBIT A
REMARKABLY WINTER-LIKE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS/RAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY EXHIBITED IN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL OPT TO GO WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
INCORPORATES THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FULL SUN EXPECTED SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...STARTS TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON A SOMEWHAT
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG THE U.S. BORDER.  THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
WELL INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH WE WILL GET
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RE-EMERGES WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES MAKING ITS WAY EAST TO NEW ENGLAND OR
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION.  THIS
PATTERN BRINGS SHOWERS/RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EACH OF THESE DAYS.  AS STATED ABOVE...WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH OF THE LOW AND JUST WHEN IT WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL USE THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
INCORPORATES BOTH THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLES.

LATE NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A QUIETER PATTERN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.  AS ALWAYS THOUGH...THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THINGS COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PERSISTENT RAIN BAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z-14Z. AFTER WHICH...EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID DAY AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES AND LOW CIGS
BEGIN TO BREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SKIES GRADUALLY BREAK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSHOWER PARTICULARLY OVER THE
CT VALLEY W.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT AND INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
MAINLY E TO GIVE WAY TO E...THEN FINALLY N. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE
FROM 15-25 KT IN THE W...TO 20-30 KT IN THE...THEN 30-40 KT AT
TIMES OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM ABOUT MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN ACTUAL TIMING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT
SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES IN -SHRA/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
A PERIOD OF EAST GALES APPEAR LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG SOUTH COAST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO CAPE COD WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-12 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN AND FOG REDUCE
VSBY.

FRIDAY...
ENE GALES DIMINISH AROUND 15Z. VSBY IMPROVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS BENCHMARK LOW MOVES ACROSS GEORGES BANK.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.  THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WATERS.  WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME...BUT SEAS ON
THE OUTER WATERS ESPECIALLY WILL BE ABOVE 5 FEET SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  SHOWERS MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ON AVERAGE WITH LOCALLY 3
OR EVEN 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

IMPACTS INCLUDE:

1) RIVER FLOODING... FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT...FARMINGTON...CHARLES AND PAWTUXET RIVERS WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FEELING MORE CONFIDENT THAT PAWTUXET WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD
DESPITE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL PUSHING INTO BASIN LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD CLOSE
TO FLOOD STAGE OVER NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD.

2) SMALL STREAMS...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY IN RI WHERE MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG PAWCATUCK
RIVER THROUGH WESTERLY. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE WITH
CREST NEAR 8.7 FT FRI.

OTHER SMALL STREAMS WERE RUNNING HIGH FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
HAVE POTENTIAL TO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS OVERNIGHT OR FRI.

3) URBAN AREAS...WATCHING BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHING ONTO S COAST
WHERE URBAN FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN FALL RIVER/NEW BEDFORD
AREA. COULD ALSO POSE THREAT OF URBAN FLOODING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE...DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN BAND PIVOTS ON
NORTHERN SIDE OF COASTAL LOW.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ008.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-232-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
HYDROLOGY...