Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 281604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1203 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

JUST A FEW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES TUE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG
WED. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THU. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRI AND/OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

NOON UPDATE...

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...JUST EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR
70 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE WELL OVER BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING OFFSHORE PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER NIGHT WITH THE
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED AND AGAIN
  FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING THIS PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT
RIDGE/HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER WESTERN CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
MAINTAINS A DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN POSITION
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...YIELDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER
DAY. IN BETWEEN MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE DEPTH AND TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THRU WED. THUS WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW ITS TYPICAL SHORT COMINGS AT
THIS TIME RANGE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. THUS LEANED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLES HERE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

MONDAY...OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE IN ST LWRN RVR VLY EXITS INTO THE
MARITIMES WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT OCCURRING OVER
NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE SOME MODELS GENERATING QPF THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
NEVERTHELESS A VERY NICE DAY.

TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OH
VLY. APPEARS WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE BUT LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE CT RVR VLY AND WESTWARD INTO NY STATE. THUS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY. S-SW SURFACE WINDS WILL
SUPPORT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA SO TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE U70S AND
L80S...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE REGION YIELDING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THAN TUE. GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ALL
SUGGEST MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE RISK OF A
FEW STRONG T-STORMS. WARM AND HUMID WITH RELIEF ARRIVING WED NIGHT
OR THU AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

THU/FRI/SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DISPLAY LARGE SPREAD HERE SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLES FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SUGGEST DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THU
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH WED. THEN A RISK FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS FRI
AND/OR SAT AS NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

11Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z OR 09Z TAFS. BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MA PIKE INTO
BOSTON METRO AREA. RAIN SLACKENS 9 AM TO 11 AM FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LIGHTER SHOWERS THEREAFTER. STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 45 KT
EASE AFTER 15Z. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING TO MVFR AS STEADY -RA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SITES COULD DROP TO IFR WITHIN ANY +RA.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ALONG THE
COASTLINES OF RA/MA.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS +SHRA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. E-SE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 30
TO 40 KNOTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. LLWS WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUS EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.
EMBEDDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.

RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY HANG TOUGH IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AND DRIZZLE PATCHES BUT SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT
MAY OCCUR ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA AS THE REGION WARM
SECTORS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
INVERSION OVER THE REGION. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
2 SM FOG ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE. IMPROVEMENTS AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY.

TUESDAY...VFR LIKELY FOR RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOW RISK OF MVFR
ACROSS CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR LIKELY.

THU...TRENDING TOWARD VFR AND DRIER AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TIL SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

940 AM UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE SLACKENED ACROSS OUR WESTERN WATERS...SO HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFTS HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.  ACROSS
OUR EASTERN WATERS....GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THEN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THAT AREA TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.  7 TO 13 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
OUTER-WATERS TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM LEFTOVER LARGE SE
SWELLS. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...S-SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BECOME LIKELY AS WELL.

THURSDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH FRONT LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019>024.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN



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