Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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260
FXUS61 KBOX 272328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...YIELDING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD
AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

SEABREEZES HAVE BROKEN DOWN ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT WIND IS NO DOMINANT. ONCE WE GET PAST SUNSET...EXPECTING
THIS SOUTHWEST WIND TO WEAKEN...AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTHWEST AS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES BY.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID BRING THE
FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN ANY CASE...THE CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND MASS FIELDS SHOW A
VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
SETUP RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH INVERSION DEVELOPING BENEATH H92
TEMPS ALREADY BETWEEN 0C AND +2C. AFTERNOON DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID
20S LEAVES PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL BE EXPANDING FREEZE WARNINGS TO
HARTFORD COUNTY CT AND NORTHERN PROVIDENCE COUNTY RI...FROST
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN OTHER ACTIVATED ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
DRY WX PREVAILS WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OUT OF THE NW THANKS TO A
FURTHER WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER/EARLIER ACTIVATION OF THE SEA BREEZES ON BOTH THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTS SO HIGHS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY. H92 TEMPS BETWEEN
+4C AND +5C...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR +2C...SUGGESTS HIGHS NEAR 60F OR
LOW 60S BUT WITH A COLDER START TO THE DAY...WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. MID 50S WHERE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MID ATLANTIC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS AND FORCES STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER N. AT THIS
TIME...AFTER LOOKING AT BUFKIT...THERE IS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE
SFC TO H7 LAYER TO OVERCOME TO WARRANT POPS. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
WITH NIL. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT
COOLING...YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
  THIS WEEKEND
* RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

27/12Z REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRENDS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH MAY BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT OVER TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER THIS WEEKEND. THE
INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE DELAYS THE INJECTION OF SOME ENERGY INTO
THE MEAN EASTERN USA TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION ARE MUCH QUICKER TO MOVE THIS
ENERGY INTO THE TROUGH. THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL TO DETERMINING
THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
ENOUGH INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE
SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH COAST...
STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEASONABLE FOR THE FIRST OF MAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS REMAINS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN
FOR RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME. THE DETAILS
ARE STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. STILL THINKING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT TO SEA. THIS TIMING
MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
VFR. SEABREEZES LIKELY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH COASTS...STARTING AT
THE MORE TRADITIONAL TIME.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF
RI/MA FRIDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRES CONTINUES
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS...WITH SEAS INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO ABOUT 5
FEET. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MONDAY...INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVE TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ017-018-020-021-023.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ007-014>016-019-022.
RI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ001.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ002>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



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