Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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628
FXUS61 KBOX 181342
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
942 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
940 AM update...

Mid level ridging moves into New Eng today with rather dry
column and moderating temps aloft. Expect a nice recovery in
temps this afternoon. Current forecast on track.

Previous Discussion...

High pressure builds south of New England today, resulting in
plenty of sunshine and milder W/SW flow with highs in the 60s
and lower 70s.

Once again today there is possibility of weak sea breeze along
eastern MA coast later this afternoon, mainly from 3-6 pm as
gradient weakens for a time. Forecast soundings show winds
slackening through lowest 2kft and heating over land should
create enough land/sea differential for sea breeze development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight starts off clear but model cross sections show potential
for some low clouds to develop across NE CT, RI, and SE MA due
to persistent SW flow and increasing low level moisture. Not
entirely confident this will occur, as high-res models can
overdo cloud cover in these situations, so for now we simply
trended forecast to indicate some cloudiness in these areas.

Any low clouds should burn off quickly Thu morning, followed by
plenty of sunshine and increasing SW winds. Highs should end up
a few degrees warmer than today, mainly in low to mid 70s,
except 60s near south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. This will
fall a bit short of tomorrow`s record highs which are in the low
to mid 80s (BOS 84 in 1945, PVD 83 in 2016, BDL 82 in 1963, ORH
81 in 1963).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Above average temperatures and dry conditions lasting into
  this weekend
* Next shot for rainfall appears to be around Tuesday

Not much has changed with this portion of the forecast. High
pressure remains in control through much of this period.
Continue to favor a consensus approach to smooth over the less
predictable details.

A weak cold front sweeps through southern New England Thursday
night. However, the air mass still appears that it will be too
dry to generate showers. Even though temperatures should be a
little lower Friday, still expecting above normal temperatures
to prevail through this period.

A stronger cold front should approach toward the middle of next
week. That is our next decent chance for rainfall. Timing of
this front is not certain, but currently looks to be sometime
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...High confidence.

VFR. Exception is across NE CT, RI, and SE MA late tonight into
Thu morning where we may see IFR ceilings develop, including
KPVD.

SW flow expected today through Thu, though weak sea breeze is
once again possible along E MA coast for a few hours later this
afternoon. If it occurs, it would be roughly from 19z to 22z.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Low chance of weak sea
breeze 19z-22z but am more confident in S/SW winds during that
time.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday/...High confidence.

Maintaining SCA for outer waters from Stellwagen Bank to east of
Cape Cod, due to lingering 25kt winds and 5-6 ft seas this
morning. Otherwise high pressure building south of New England
will result in SW flow through Thursday, which should build seas
on south coastal waters to 5-6 ft during afternoon. May need to
issue another round of SCA if it becomes more likely.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...High confidence.

High pressure lingers across the waters through much of this
period, resulting in rather tranquil boating conditions. The
exception to this would be Thursday night into Friday, when a
weak cold front crosses the waters. Small Craft Advisories may
be needed during that period.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/JWD
MARINE...Belk/JWD



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