Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 282336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THIS
WEEKEND BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER ALONG
WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT MAY BRING BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPS ON THE COAST TUESDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING COASTAL COOLING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUN LOWERED TO THE HORIZON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NY STATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TARGET. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM TO BRING CONDITIONS
CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
AUGUST STANDARDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 55 IN THE NORMALLY
COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
MOST OF THE URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THEN TODAY.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD TOP OUT
MAINLY IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 60...SO STILL QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECT OUR WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS WHILE
URBAN CENTERS SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
EXPECT MORE LATE NIGHT PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK
* LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR A POSSIBLE BACK DOOR FRONT LATE WED
  OR THU

OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SIGNAL
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. INDIVIDUAL MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.

ONLY TWO FEATURES OF NOTE. LOW PRES WORKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT S ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT LINE DUE TO LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO +16C ACROSS E MA LATE
TUESDAY...BUT RISE BACK UP AGAIN QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TO MOVE S-SW OUT OF MAINE AND EASTERN QUEBEC SOMETIME LATE
WED OR THU...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS
GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE POSSIBILITY OF A HEAT WAVE
DURING THE MON-WED TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING AS DEWPTS THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY
REACHING 70 ON MONDAY ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S...THOUGH COULD REACH TO THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AS H85
TEMPS RISE TO +16C TO +18C.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE PRES PATTERN ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT WORKING S OUT OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO.
GFS MOST ROBUST IN KEEPING SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...BUT BOTH
THE GGEM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN AS H5 HEIGHTS
RISE. WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP TO FIRE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WORKS S-SW
TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE LATE WED OR THU TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY /INCREASED
CAPE VALUES/ SO HAVE MENTIONED SHOWERS/TSTMS. OVERALL...THOUGH...
CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES
BY FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS...BUT
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES SHOULD KICK
OUT OF TERMINAL BY 02Z THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS OF SEA BREEZES
MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPING NOT AS
HIGH AS TODAY AND SHOULD NOT LAST AS LONG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
HAVE A SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT LIGHT SW
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO NE-E TUE BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO S-SW AGAIN WED. LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 20 KT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT


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