Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 142001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY
NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY
BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOLLOWS NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN LIKELY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE FINISHES PUSHING INTO
THE REGION.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. OPTED TO USE
THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL BE LOOKING TO
EXPAND THE FROST ADVISORY INTO NORTHWESTERN MA AND INTO
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN NH WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER CHILLY START BUT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER IN PLACES.
SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MORE HUMIDITY...CLOUDS...AND
RAIN EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE COAST TUE AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED THROUGH SAT
* FROST POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S
* MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEXT SUN

DETAILS...

TUESDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY
TUE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.  TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT...BUT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE EXITED THE
INTERIOR BY NOON AND COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO THE MORNING EXPECT A COOL DAY. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT TEMPS MIGHT FALL BELOW
60 WHILE ITS RAINING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE
NIGHT.  SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT MAY SEE A
BIT OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDINESS AFFECT CAPE/NANTUCKET WITH COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING OVER THE OCEAN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION WED INTO WED NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE ON BOTH LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO JUST A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SPRINKLE/SPOT LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY...BUT
NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  OTHERWISE...THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER OUTLYING AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA...WHERE FROST
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY FRI/SAT MORNING/S.  THE REST
OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
WELL INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY.  MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THIS TIME...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. AT
THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR
INLAND IN FOG.

MONDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS INTERIOR AND SEABREEZES ALONG THE
COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW RISK OF PATCHY MVFR FOG INLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A
BRIEF SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.  CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN A TOUCH OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD VISIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS/SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO TUE AFTERNOON.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS
MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE INTO WED BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT.  WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST SOUTHWEST EARLY TUE...TO
NORTH NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT AND WED BEHIND THE FRONT.  GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS LIKELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THU.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS
AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THU
INTO FRI ACROSS SOME OF THE OUTER-WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ002-003-008.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...RLG/FRANK
MARINE...RLG/FRANK


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