Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 260817
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUE
PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO THE REGION ALONG WITH
A CHILLY NORTHEAST WIND AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MAINLY EVIDENCED BY LOWERING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ZONES.  STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE INTO
CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT 3 AM.  HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES SO AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IS
REACHING THE GROUND RIGHT NOW.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS THIS MORNING...CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH...OVER THE WATERS. A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
TRAVELS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY.  EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BETWEEN COLDER
AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID
40S...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN IN THE MID
40S TODAY.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOWER 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FINALLY...THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN NORTH OF ROUTE 2. THIS
IS THANKS TO A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER IN THE THERMAL PROFILE THAT
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
THE MA/NH BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.  CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.  WINDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT FROM THE COLD OF TODAY.  STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL BUT A WELCOME DIFFERENCE AFTER
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
  NORMALS DURING THE WEEKEND
* RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY

OVERVIEW...
STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK OVER GREENLAND WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS VORTEX OVER EASTERN
CANADA LIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.  00Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS
HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH LOW PRES MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST THU-FRI
AS INFLUENCE FROM E CANADIAN VORTEX AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A MORE SUPPRESSED SHORTWAVE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMING SUN NIGHT
OR MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS
ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN GFS.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT...
SFC RIDGING FROM HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BUILD INTO NEW
ENG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH MINS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS
ACTIVATED.

THU INTO FRI...
LOW PRES MOVING OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL. WE
LOWERED POPS AND HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...WITH JUST A VERY LOW
PROB FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE S COAST. TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE CT VALLEY. COASTAL SEABREEZES
LIKELY BOTH DAYS.

SAT INTO SUN...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT MAY
TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY. MODERATING TEMPS TO NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS.

MON...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF MOISTURE WITH NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MAINTAINS RIDGING AND DRY
WEATHER...WHILE GFS AND MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS ARE WET.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.  SCT -SHRA MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

AFTER 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE.  STEADY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN AT TIMES.  NE WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20
KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.  LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY TO
VFR.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.  EXPECT INCREASING SEAS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BUT WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AM NOT COMFORTABLE TAKING IT DOWN AT THIS POINT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES.  THERE IS
ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FEET SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THU AFTERNOON
AS SEABREEZES DEVELOPS. MAINLY E/NE WINDS FRI/SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



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