Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 300212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRINGING
MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY
APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT. THAT SHOULD KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TORUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES EAST. CIRRUS ALREADY ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWER
CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD REACH THE BERKSHIRES 3-4
AM...PCPN 5-6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD START NEAR SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN
THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EAST.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALLOW FOR SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BUT EXPECT WARMING DURING THE MORNING THAT WILL
CHANGE THIS TO RAIN. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
AN INCH OR LESS.

COLD ADVECTION MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DRAW UPON 35 KNOT WINDS
ALOFT BRINGING THEM TO THE SURFACE IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON GUSTS.
WE WILL TREND FORECAST GUSTS HIGHER WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT STAY A
LITTLE BELOW THIS FULL POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH EXCELLENT MIXING IN
PLACE. EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
* MODERATING...SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

NORTHWEST FLOW TO START OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. 29/12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO A
FAVOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH UNTIL THESE DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS
COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

DETAILS...

* TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE
WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MAJORITY 29/12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
ALMOST NO IMPACT AT ALL ON OUR WEATHER. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID...WILL TREND THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM WILL BE AT NIGHT...THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL IF TEMPERATURES LOWER FAST ENOUGH.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER NORTH.

* WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM WED INTO WED
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN.

* THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A FEW WAVES WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO DECIDED TO NOT
TRY TO TIME PRECIPITATION TO SPECIFICALLY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

* SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. KEPT THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST DRY...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ABOVE 3000
FEET.

MONDAY...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH 25-30 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH
25-30 KNOTS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WIND BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR SOUTH OF
MASS PIKE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS FOR A COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY...REACHING NEAR 30 KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE...ALLOWING
FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO RELAX.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG


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