Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 291833 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER * LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS WELL MODELED. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND... ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR NW. MVFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...BELK/RLG MARINE...BELK/RLG

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