Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBOX 261947 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 347 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW THAT HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INCHING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WITH A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD NOT MUCH...IF ANY...OF THE RAIN IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DYING OFF WITH THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR TUESDAY * RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS * DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS * IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND OVERVIEW... CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. * WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW. * THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. * THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET. OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG NEAR TERM...RLG SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.