Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 161150 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 750 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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740 AM UPDATE... ALL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WAS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT IT SHOULD BREAK OUT THERE BY MID MORNING. THERE WERE A FEW NARROW BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MIX DOWN...WITH 40 MPH AT MANCHESTER NH. WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 40 KNOTS SO EXPECT THAT 40 MPH IS THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE AT THE SURFACE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY ROADS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SPINOUTS...PLEASE DRIVE WITH CAUTION AS THE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET FROM LAST NIGHT HAS FROZEN OVER IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HIT 32 OR COLDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C. THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES. ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND 30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THU... HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE 50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES WELL S OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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...HIGHLIGHTS... * CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI * MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON * CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE. DAILY DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS. FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND. ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. NW WINDS GUST 25-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS. IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND... BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT... THOMPSONVILLE HARTFORD MIDDLE HADDAM MONTAGUE NORTHAMPTON OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY RECEDE. OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD NEAR TERM...DOODY/FIELD SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FIELD AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD MARINE...DOODY/FIELD HYDROLOGY...STAFF

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