Area Forecast Discussion
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015 FXUS61 KBOX 182025 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 325 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strengthening low pressure sweeps NE across the E Great Lakes ahead of which widespread rain with embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms, along with strong to damaging winds are forecast through Sunday night. Breezy and cooler conditions for Monday. Moderate temperatures on Tuesday followed by scattered showers on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through. Chilly but dry for Thanksgiving and into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/...
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3 pm update... Rain beginning to get into W New England. Temperatures have been slow to warm today given the thickening cloud cover subsequent of isentropic lift along the 280-310K surfaces. An isolated report in the low-lying sheltered regions in the high terrain of the Berkshires of light freezing rain. Should see this rain continue to spread slowly E across the region up against lingering dry air and ridge of high pressure gradually shifting out of the W. If the 12z morning soundings are any indication, it is going to take a little bit of time to saturate the fairly dry profile prior to precipitation reaching the surface. S winds on the increase, expecting a warming trend in temperatures that is going to go into the evening hours. Tonight... */ Highlights... - Strong to damaging SSW winds along S-coastal RI and MA - Widespread rain with embedded heavier downpours, possible t`storms - With t`storms, potential aid in mixing down strong, damaging winds */ Overview... Strong to damaging southwesterly wind threats developing out ahead of a deepening area of low pressure across the E Great Lakes, the trailing cold front of which sweeping S New England is the focus of widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and the possibility of thunderstorms. Nose of strong warm air advection (WAA) within atmospheric sounding profiles around H8, ushered by a well agreed upon 60-80 mph SW jet around H925-8, lending to a steep lapse rates aloft. Attendant low- level frontal convergence / lift with the cold front beneath robust mid-level vortmax, QG-forcing, and the left front quadrant H3 jet, subsequent deep layer ascent in an area of high shear as the H5 trof undergoes its negative tilt obtaining cyclonic curvature. Conveyor belt motions enhancing with the ingest of a continental sub-tropical airmass (cT) with H925-7 thetaE exceeding 320K, surface dewpoints surging to around 50 to 60F, especially SE New England, as drier air impinges from the SW, sharpening, as the cold conveyor belt drives in from the NW behind the H85-7 mid-level low, descending. Thermal gradients tightening with time. All coming together shortly after midnight towards the early morning hours Sunday, both strong SW jet and strong dynamics. Out ahead of a continued deepening surface low down to 980 mb across the E Great Lakes towards NE VT. */ Threats and Impacts (in priority)... Winds... Strong to damaging wind threat is apparent. However the challenge is in regards to WAA around H8, increasing the low-level inversion more so over the Labrador Current looping down off the coast of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. It`s here that mixing may not be as prevalent. A lot of model consensus sounding profiles and ensemble means capture this fairly well. However, elsewhere mean surface to H9 lapse rates average around 6-7 C/km with consensus model forecast winds at roughly 0.5 km agl (just above 1500 feet) 60 to 70 mph. Based on wind climatology for SW cases along with forecast rules of thumb, HIGH WIND WARNINGS have been posted along the S-coast of RI and MA including the Islands for tonight with WIND ADVISORIES just to the adjacent N. STORM WARNINGS over the southern waters including Narragansett Bay. There are moderate probability signals from NCAR and EC ensembles that do justify such headlines, including the HREF signaling a decent probability of sustained 10m 35 mph winds along the S coast. Strong to damaging SW wind gusts forecast, considering that some trees still have leaves, there are potential impacts of downed trees and/or tree limbs possibly resulting in power outages, structural damage, and/or blocked roadways. Rain and Convection... Undoubtedly widespread rain with embedded heavy downpours. Initially with the warm front this evening, perhaps a lull around midnight, then along the cold front thereafter into Sunday morning. Depending on parcel lift, there is potential at various levels for some weak instability up to 100-200 J/kg, especially within the low levels as colder air undercuts right along the cold front. Given the shear and strong lifting and ascent mechanisms, with any instability can see storm organize. And along focusing boundaries, particularly the cold front and leading nose of the dry slot, could see fine-line convection develop. Rumbles of thunder along with heavier rain, can not rule out mechanical mix-down/precipitation drag of faster winds aloft to the surface aiding in the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. No particular area of focus, however if the 3 km NAM is correct, could see clusters of heavier downpours, possible thunder- storms, with perhaps a fine-line along the nose of the dry slot going into Sunday. Fast moving, precipitable waters nudging towards 1.5 inches, around +2 standard deviations per NCEP SREF, looking at a widespread 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain with possible amounts up around an inch in spots (higher confidence along the S/W slopes of high terrain). Most of it falling around midnight into the morning hours, should be able to handle it, do not perceive a flooding threat.
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&& .SHORT TERM /LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Late Morning Sunday into Sunday night... */ Highlights... - Post-frontal winds W/NW driving in colder air - Widespread 40 to 45 mph wind gusts forecast - Areas of greatest impact across the high terrain, along the coast */ Discussion... Strong post-frontal W/NW winds across S New England with widespread 40 to 45 mph gusts. In response to the surface low deepening down to 975 mb into SE Canada, well agreed upon by the consensus of forecast guidance, expecting a strong pressure couplet especially across N New England with pressure rises on the backside of the system up as high as 3 mb / hr. Gradient / isallobaric wind response drives W/NW flow with the top of the mix layer up to H85, dry adiabatic lapse rates, subsequent of under-cutting colder air, where the top of the mixed layer winds average 45 to 55 mph (40 to 50 kts), a few of the models suggesting upwards of 60 mph. Based on wind climatology for NW cases along with forecast rules of thumb, WIND ADVISORIES have been posted for all of S New England except where a HIGH WIND WARNING is in place along the S-coast. Corroborating signals from both CIPS analogs and EC ensemble that support such headlines. Again, with strong to damaging NW wind gusts forecast, considering that some trees still have leaves, there are potential impacts of downed trees and/or tree limbs possibly resulting in power outages, structural damage, and/or blocked roadways. Otherwise, drier air surging in aloft behind the quick sweeping cold front, will see an end to shower activity rather abruptly during the morning hours. With the blustery W/NW winds and cold airmass pouring in, across the warmer Great Lakes, the lake effect machine will be ongoing and could see some of that energy reach far enough E with the mean flow to impact N/W portions of MA and CT with some snow and/or rain shower activity, 2m temperature dependent. If snow, some light accumulations are possible, mainly for the high terrain of the Berkshires.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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*/ Highlights... - Blustery NW winds on Monday - Moderating temperatures Tuesday and into Wednesday - Dry but chilly for Thanksgiving day */ Pattern Overview/Confidence... Building high pressure over Baja California will push the ridge into the Western CONUS for next week. This will keep the eastern half of the country in a trough til perhaps the end of the week. Overall 12z guidance is in general agreement, however guidance spread occurs with each potential shortwave and frontal systems that pass through. Trended the forecast towards the UKMET and 12z EC as the GFS appears to be too robust within this pattern set-up, esp towards the end of the week. Details... Monday into Tuesday...High confidence. Cold airmass continues to remain overhead on Monday as high pressure to the south begins to build. Departing shortwave from the north will increase the pressure gradient and thus anticipate gusty westerly winds to continue during the day. Anticipate a mostly dry day, but could see ocean effect showers across the open waters. Mid-level ridge will pass through overnight into Tuesday as winds switch and WAA returns across southern New England. Temperatures will warm within this southwesterly wind as 50`s return back to the region. Approaching cold front from the west will result in a developing LLJ with 925mb winds reaching 40-45 kts. Once again another windy evening for Tuesday. Wednesday into Thanksgiving...Moderate confidence. Approaching cold front from the Great Lakes will result in a mild start on Wednesday. Depending on the available moisture, scattered showers may develop along and/or ahead of the front. Both the EC and CMC have continued to show precip chances while the GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture offshore. Will continue to ride with chc pops until guidance spread decreases. Behind the front, CAA will move back into the region for Thursday. Continue with the dry trend for the later half of the day as the 12z GFS deterministic run appears to be an outlier with its developing coastal low. Most of the GEFS also keeps the developing low well offshore like the CMC. This developing low is also not supported by the UKMET or the EC. Therefore anticipate a chilly day as temps fall below seasonable with dry conditions. Friday and beyond...Increasing confidence. Increasing cloud cover overnight as secondary cold front swings through. However, temps will begin to moderate as pattern turns a bit more zonal. A few shortwaves will push through next weekend but timing and exact impact remain uncertain at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/... Through early Sunday morning... CIGs lowering towards MVFR / IFR as -RA/RA becomes widespread with embedded +RA and possible TSRA towards morning. VSBY impacts likely with RA/+RA, MVFR/IFR respectively. Increasing SW winds throughout, strongest 3z-15z Sunday especially across SE New England with sustained around 20-25 kts and gusts 40-50 kts.. Concurrent threat of LLWS as winds 2 kft agl will be around 55-65 kts, especially over the Cape and Islands. Late Sunday morning through Sunday night... Quickly improving VFR. Winds turning W/NW abruptly and immediately gusting upwards of 40 to 45 kts, sustained around 15 to 20 kts. Possible -RA/-SN impacts to high terrain terminals along the Berkshires. KBOS Terminal... Increasing SW winds overnight through roughly 16z Sunday. Gusts up to 40 kts not out of the question but on average are forecast around 30-35 kts. Potential LLWS concurrent with strongest gusts as winds aloft at 2 kft agl could be potentially as high as 50 kts. Lastly, despite -RA/RA with embedded +RA threats, impacting the AM push for sure, can not rule out -TSRA closer to 16z Sunday. Wind shift after 16z Sunday, W/NW, will see a greater risk of gusts exceeding 40 kts. KBDL Terminal... Stronger SW flow will lie S/E of the terminal closer to the coast. Expect -RA/RA with embedded +RA increasing during the overnight hours and going into morning with an abrupt wind shift out of the W/NW around 15z Sunday. Thereafter there is an increased risk of wind gusts of around 40 kts. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thanksgiving Day: VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/... */ Highlights... - STORM WARNINGS posted for the S waters - GALES all other waters */ Discussion... Storm center deepening across the E Great Lakes with a central pressure down to 975 mb as it lifts into SE Canada Sunday night. A trailing cold front ahead of which widespread rain is expected with embedded heavier showers, possible thunderstorms, resulting in visibility restrictions on the waters, as well as strong SW flow with sustained winds around 20 to 30 kts, as high as 35 kts, with gusts potentially exceeding 50 kts, again the greater threat over the S waters. Behind the cold front, winds shifting W/NW and remaining blustery. Gusts 40 to 45 kts possible. Waves building 10 to 15 feet throughout, can not rule out as high as 20 feet during the height of the winds along the S/SE waters. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Tuesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thanksgiving Day: Winds less than 25 kt.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for MAZ020>024. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for MAZ017>019. Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for MAZ002>019-026. RI...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for RIZ006>008. Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for RIZ002>005. Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for RIZ001>005. MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ232>234-236. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ231-250-251-254. Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday for ANZ235-237. Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/Dunten NEAR TERM...Sipprell SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Dunten AVIATION...Sipprell/Dunten MARINE...Sipprell/Dunten

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